Zukunft auf dem Prüfstand: Die Herausforderungen des BMW 1er im Angesicht neuer Generationen und Marktdynamiken

Is there a next-gen BMW 1 Series on the horizon?

Amidst a compact car crisis, soaring costs of electrification, and competition from within, the fate of the BMW 1 Series remains uncertain…

At the beginning of June, BMW released the first official images of the latest BMW 1 Series. Despite the upcoming compact class, set to launch on October 5, 2024, being internally referred to as the F70, the car recently revealed is actually a comprehensive revamp of the F40 model originally introduced in May 2019.

Consequently, the UKL2 platform continues to serve as the foundation for the latest iteration of the BMW 1 Series. After five years of somewhat lukewarm sales performance, BMW is intent on revitalizing the 1 Series. In 2023, this compact model from Munich ranked sixth in sales in the German market, with just over 20,000 units sold, trailing significantly behind the more popular, larger sibling, the X1, which claimed the top spot with approximately 37,000 units sold.

Photo Gallery: BMW 1 Series (2024)

BMW is taking a similar path with the new 1 Series as they did with the X5 F15. The third generation, like its predecessor (E70), features the same chassis, wheelbase, and interior design. This method of refresh is designed to boost sales of a well-established product while also saving on the costs of developing an entirely new generation.

The lingering question is whether there will actually be a new generation of the 1 Series. Based on a review of the sales patterns over the past 12 years, the chances appear slim. Here are the top three reasons:

1. The 1 Series is a Hatchback

Despite hatchbacks still being popular in Europe, their future looks bleak as long as consumers in China and the US continue to reject them. A global brand such as BMW relies on the two largest markets in the world. The profitability of luxury brands depends on producing vehicles that have global appeal and potential.

2024 Redesign of BMW 1 Series (F70)

One of the strategies that have propelled the success of the three top-tier German car brands is their ability to market models that effortlessly find buyers across the globe. However, the 1 Series is not available in either China (where the 1 Series sedan was discontinued at the end of 2023) or the USA. This could shed light on BMW's decision to opt for a significant makeover of the current model instead of rushing into the development of a new generation.

2. The Expense of Electrification

BMW's approach to electric vehicles has proven successful. In the global sales rankings for 2023, the Bavarian automaker clinched the sixth spot in electric vehicle sales. They were outpaced only by Tesla, BYD, two other Chinese firms, and Volkswagen. This places BMW ahead of major players such as Toyota, Hyundai, Ford, and even Mercedes.

Upon examining BMW's lineup of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), it's evident that the 1 Series is among the few that lacks an electric variant, an i1, so to speak. Why is this the case? It could simply be that creating a unique electric model for the 1 Series and 2 Series may prove to be prohibitively costly, especially considering these are segments where price sensitivity is a significant factor.

3. The X1 Threat

The primary threat to the ongoing success of the BMW 1 Series doesn't come from competitors like the Audi A3 or VW Golf, but from within BMW's own lineup: the X1. So far, these two models have managed to coexist relatively well. Initially, BMW launched the first iteration of the 1 Series in 2004, with the first generation of the X1 coming five years later in 2009.

Is the BMW 1 Series being outperformed by its rival, the X1, in worldwide deliveries?

Motor1 Statistics: Is there a new generation of the BMW 1 Series on the horizon?

With the launch of the second generation X1 in 2015, there was a noticeable shift in dynamics. The introduction of the F48 model saw a rise in X1's sales figures, whereas the 1 Series failed to recover with the release of the F40 in 2019, experiencing a continued decline. The compact SUV, with its U11 version, increasingly outperformed its smaller sibling.

Leading 10 Markets

Sales figures for the BMW 1 Series across different markets in the year 2023

Motor1 Statistics: Is there a new generation of the BMW 1 Series on the horizon?

Time will reveal if BMW maintains its commitment to the 1 Series. However, one thing is for sure, worldwide consumers have consistently shown a definite preference for either the 1 Series or its SUV counterpart, the X1, despite the latter usually being more expensive.

Updates on BMW's Model Enhancement Initiatives

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