Tesla Model 3 and Model Y Range: The Real-World Decline Over Three Years

According to data from battery analytics company Recurrent, a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y that's three years old is expected to maintain about 64% of its original EPA estimated driving range in actual driving conditions.

Recurrent has conducted an analysis on the battery longevity of second-hand electric vehicles by tracking vehicles currently in use. The study included 898,504 data points from 7,078 Model 3 sedans and 664,642 data points from 5,120 Model Y crossovers. The findings indicate that battery range typically experiences a significant drop within the initial 1,000 days, which is almost three years, descending to about 64% of the EPA's estimated range, after which it levels off.

Decline in the driving distance of the Tesla Model Y, as reported by

Battery life decline in Tesla Model 3 as observed by Recurrent.

It's important to point out that in actual usage, these cars don’t begin at their full Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) efficiency rating. They tend to start around 70% of that number, which reflects the larger margin Tesla includes when initially determining its advertised range figures.

Recurrent notes that the decline in lithium-ion batteries typically mirrors an S-curve pattern. Initially, a new battery may exhibit some decline as it stabilizes, the firm explains, but then this decline stabilizes for a period. However, as the battery ages, it will inevitably experience a marked deterioration, eventually necessitating its replacement.

A similarity can be drawn between the decline in electric vehicle battery performance and the general value decrease of new vehicles, which is most pronounced during the initial three-year period after purchase.

The 2024 version of the Tesla Model Y, presented by Tesla, Inc.

Recurrent's findings once more highlight the predictability of battery degradation, suggesting it's uncommon for electric vehicle batteries to fail completely. Excluding major recalls, the incidence of battery replacements is quite low. Recurrent's data shows that approximately 2.3% of EV batteries have undergone replacement, primarily in older models. For vehicles from the 2015 model year or before, an estimated 13% have received new batteries. However, this figure drops to below 1% for models from 2016 onwards, with many of these replacements covered by the vehicle's warranty.

Last year, Recurrent discovered that Teslas appear to withstand the effects of regular rapid charging better than other electric vehicles when it comes to battery wear and tear. However, they did identify that hot climates do impact the batteries. Although battery deterioration isn't as linked to cold temperatures, they do significantly reduce the driving distance, with the extent varying across different models.

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