From Blair’s Landslide to Starmer’s Surge: The Shifting Foundations of Labour’s Electoral Support

Exploring the Contrast: Starmer's Current Backing vs. Blair's 1997 Triumph

Voting patterns vary significantly across various demographics, including socioeconomic status, educational background, health, and geographic location. Should Labour secure a win in 2024, the underlying support base would differ markedly from the one that propelled Tony Blair to a sweeping victory in 1997.

By Prof Will Jennings, Sky News Elections Analyst, and Dr Jamie Furlong, University of Westminster

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 02:24

In December 2019, Boris Johnson spearheaded a significant triumph for the Conservative Party, fundamentally altering the landscape of British politics by securing constituencies in the north of England and the Midlands—areas traditionally dominated by the Labour Party for decades.

According to survey results, Keir Starmer's Labour Party appears poised to deliver a significant blow to Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party.

Labour appears poised to retake numerous constituencies in the post-industrial regions of northern England and make significant inroads into traditionally middle-class Conservative strongholds, echoing aspects of the sweeping victory achieved by Tony Blair.

Many of the constituencies captured in 1997 could be reclaimed by Labour, though the spatial distribution of their support could vary somewhat.

Examining the general elections from 1979 to 2019 allows us to pinpoint the types of areas that typically support the Labour and Conservative parties.

We can also employ forecasts from YouGov's latest MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey for Sky News to gauge what the outcome could be on July 4th.

The ongoing decrease in class-based voting

Firstly, we will explore the evolving dynamics between employment rates in working-class professions within a constituency and the voting patterns for the Labour and Conservative parties.

In 1979, constituencies with a higher percentage of workers in manual and semi-skilled positions tended to show stronger support for the Labour Party and weaker support for the Conservative Party.

By 1997, the correlation had diminished, yet it was still present. Fast forward to 2019, and there was a noticeable trend where the Conservative Party gained more support in areas with a significant number of blue-collar workers.

According to forecasts from the MRP model, the 2024 election could see a modest shift away from recent trends, though it is doubtful that the distinct class-based voting patterns seen in 1997 will fully reemerge.

The restructuring of the gap in education

In the elections of 1979 and again in 1997, regions with a lower proportion of university-educated residents generally showed stronger support for the Labour Party. Conversely, areas with a higher concentration of degree-educated individuals predominantly supported the Conservative Party, which was more popular among the professional middle classes.

Over the past four decades, there has been a consistent shift in the voting trends related to educational attainment. Specifically, the Labour Party has increasingly gained support in regions with a higher number of university-educated individuals, whereas the Conservative Party has seen a decline in these areas.

Currently, there is no meaningful statistical difference between the groups.

Labour maintains strong backing in economically disadvantaged regions.

Based on various metrics, the geographic distribution of the Labour vote has remained largely consistent for the past forty years.

The degree of socio-economic hardship within a constituency, indicated by the prevalence of individuals claiming to be in poor health, consistently serves as a significant indicator of increased support for the Labour Party.

The forecast for 2024 indicates that this trend is likely to continue, although there might be a slight decrease in the strength of this correlation.

Relative to the constituencies captured by Tony Blair in 1997, the pattern of Labour's support on July 4th is expected to show increased numbers in areas with a higher concentration of university graduates and decreased numbers in regions with a predominantly working-class population. However, the party is anticipated to perform comparably well in regions marked by significant socio-economic hardships.

Emerging Strongholds?

How could the electoral landscape appear once the results are clear on the morning of July 5th?

An approach to analyze the geographic distribution of party support in 1997 and 2024 is to examine the groups of constituencies that perform above or below expectations for each party, considering their socio-economic profiles.

Our attention is on England and Wales because the ascendancy of the SNP has significantly altered the political landscape in Scotland.

On the maps, areas are colored red to indicate regions where the Labour Party has outperformed expectations, and are colored dark blue in locations where the party's vote fell short of expectations.

The 1997 electoral map indicates that Labour exceeded anticipated performance in several coal mining areas of South Yorkshire, which are generally characterized by former industrial towns and villages inhabited largely by an older, white, working-class demographic.

By 2024, the group of electoral districts where Labour typically outperformed expectations had vanished.

Conversely, Labour's success has not only spread throughout Merseyside but also into areas of Cheshire and Derbyshire, and most notably, across extensive regions of England's rural far north.

Several of these electoral districts are quite prosperous, especially when compared to previous coal-mining regions.

This aligns with the predictions that Labour might see unexpected victories in the 2024 elections in areas like Hexham in Northumberland or Tatton in Cheshire.

How will this impact what comes next?

Should Labour succeed in reclaiming numerous constituencies across the North and Midlands this Thursday, it is expected to spark significant discussion on whether the party has effectively restored the so-called Red Wall.

Certainly, reclaiming constituencies such as Bishop Auckland, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Bolsover, and the Rother Valley would strongly reinforce the party's prominence throughout the region.

Yet, the Red Wall could now present a significantly altered identity compared to what the party represented back in 1997.

Historically, Labour enjoyed some of its largest vote leads in ex-coal mining and industrial areas. Tony Blair once boasted a 53-point lead in Sedgefield. By 2024, these margins are expected to shrink, with Labour potentially securing larger victories in the major northern cities.

Simultaneously, the party is expected to strengthen its base in regions populated predominantly by young graduates and professionals – demographics that, historically in 1979, leaned towards the Conservative vote.

The process of redefining the electoral boundaries in England and Wales is not yet complete.

"England and Wales' Evolving Voting Landscape" by Jamie Furlong and Will Jennings is released by Oxford University Press.

Sky News Information Footer

Overview of Sky News

Services Provided by Sky News

Sky Television Networks

Additional Sky Websites