Decade of Debate: Reflecting on Scotland’s Independence Referendum and the Unending Quest for IndyRef2

Decade Marks Since Scotland's Independence Vote

The landmark referendum was held on September 18, 2014. Despite being described as a "once in a generation chance," ongoing discontent with the outcome has spurred advocates to persistently demand another referendum.

Scotland correspondent @Jenster13

Wednesday, September 18, 2024, at 7

A decade ago, Scottish citizens cast their votes in a referendum to determine their nation's independence.

On September 18, 2014, a significant referendum occurred, proposing Scotland's independence from the United Kingdom. Over two million individuals, accounting for 55.3% of voters, opted against the split, while approximately 1.6 million, or 44.7%, supported it.

After the loss, the then-first minister Alex Salmond resigned, paving the way for Nicola Sturgeon to take over the position.

Discover further – Alex Salmond: 'I began drafting my concession speech as soon as the initial result was announced'

Since that time, Scotland has seen two additional SNP first ministers, Humza Yousaf and currently John Swinney, both of whom are advocates for the country's independence.

Despite being promoted as a "once in a generation chance to choose a different course," discontent with the outcome has consistently driven activists to demand another referendum.

For the last ten years, momentum has not waned, as demonstrations still take place across Scotland advocating for its independence from the United Kingdom.

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The former Conservative administration consistently declined to approve a subsequent referendum.

The debate reached the UK Supreme Court, which decided in 2022 that the Scottish government does not have the authority to legislate for a second independence referendum without the consent of Westminster.

This development complicated matters for Ms. Sturgeon, who had earlier outlined her intention to organize another referendum, referred to as indyref2, on October 19, 2023.

Under the newly elected Labour administration, the aim to secure a victory in the 2026 Holyrood elections seems to imply that there won't be a shift in Westminster's position in the foreseeable future.

"2014 proved to be an extraordinary year in Scotland."

Keith Brown, the Deputy Leader of the SNP, described 2014 as an "absolutely remarkable year" for Scotland.

He noted: "Across the nation, communities engaged in spirited and engaging conversations about the future of Scotland. The debate over independence enthralled the whole country.

"Over the past decade, Scotland has been involuntarily removed from the EU, endured the problematic leadership of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, and seen its democratic principles consistently undermined."

Scotland has been dealing with the fallout from unkept promises that were made back in 2014.

"The Scottish National Party is committed to ensuring that the coming decade brings significant change to Scotland, with independence as a central element of our strategy."

"Becoming an independent nation would grant us the authority to enhance our lives, strengthen our communities, and improve our public services; it offers an opportunity to reignite our optimism for the future."

"Scotland no longer tolerates unfulfilled promises from Westminster, and the SNP feels it's the appropriate moment to initiate a fresh dialogue about our collective future as a sovereign country."

"Could a second Scottish independence referendum succeed?"

In response to whether a second referendum would yield different results if conducted now, polling authority Sir John Curtice informed Sky News, "The truthful response is that it's uncertain."

Sir John noted that according to opinion polls, there hasn't been a significant shift in public opinion over the last ten years, with the "No" side maintaining an average support level of about 52%, compared to 48% for the "Yes" side.

Professor Sir John, an expert in political science at the University of Strathclyde, noted, "It hasn’t truly dipped below that level since roughly 2019."

A recent YouGov survey released on Tuesday showed that 56% of respondents were against the proposal, while 44% supported

In a recent survey involving 1,063 individuals aged 16 and older, over half (51%) expressed that the topic of independence has been overly debated over the past decade. Meanwhile, only about one in six (18%) believed that it deserved more focus.

'A second referendum on Scottish independence won't happen before 2028 at the earliest'

In addition to needing Westminster's consent for a second independence referendum, the Scottish Parliament must also secure a majority of its Members in support of independence.

Sir John remarked, "Currently, that's the situation. However, a vital query remains: post-2026, will the pro-independence faction maintain its majority?"

According to the professor, as long as the Labour Party maintains control of the UK government, a second Scottish independence referendum, or indyref2, “will not occur” and is essentially “postponed until at least 2028.”

Should Labour secure a minority government in the upcoming general election, the SNP may be poised to use this outcome as an opportunity to push for talks on independence.

Yet, considering the party's substantial loss of MPs in the July election, where their numbers dwindled to merely nine, the future appears equally precarious.

Sir John explained, "That's the harsh reality of our current situation."

Despite Mr. Salmond’s establishment of the Alba Party, the SNP remains the primary political representative of the independence cause.

Following the SNP's loss in the recent elections, rival parties have asserted that the Scottish people lack interest in a second referendum.

Sir John indicated that although just 30% of the electorate chose the SNP in the recent general election, polling data reveals that 48% are in favor of independence.

He stated: "The issue is that there exists a small yet significant minority of individuals who, despite indicating they would vote Yes, did not support the SNP back in July."

Sir John stated that the SNP is facing significant political challenges, which primarily began with Ms. Sturgeon stepping down.

Subsequently, a harsh leadership battle unfolded, revealing deep splits within the party, and led to the rise of a successor who possessed a "very weak mandate" and then "committed a critical error in attempting to dismiss the Greens."

Sir John mentioned that although the new First Minister Mr. Swinney is recognized as a "highly competent deputy," it is yet to be determined if he can effectively fulfill the role of Scotland's leader.

Sir John stated, "Individuals are beginning to pay attention to the SNP's governance track record."

"Current police investigation and a difficult period for governance"

Furthermore, Police Scotland is conducting an investigation into the financial affairs and funding of the SNP.

Titled Operation Branchform, the extended investigation relates to the allocation of approximately £600,000 collected by advocates intended for promoting Scottish independence. It has come to light that there are allegations of this designated fund being misused on expenditures other than its specified purpose.

Earlier this year, Peter Murrell, who is married to Ms. Sturgeon and previously served as the chief executive of the SNP, was formally accused by the police of misappropriating party finances.

The inquiry also involved the arrest and subsequent release without charges of Ms. Sturgeon and former party treasurer MSP Colin Beattie. Ms. Sturgeon maintains her innocence, asserting she has done nothing wrong.

Sir John stated, "Operation Branchform looms over them, significantly complicating their efforts to secure funding."

The professor mentioned he "wouldn't bet" on the results of the 2026 Holyrood election.

Sir John remarked, "The future is uncertain. It's a challenging period to be part of the government."

Looking ahead, a Labour government is now in power at Westminster and is grappling with a fiscal crisis, a crisis in public services, and a weakening economy.

"Who can predict Labour's popularity by 2026?"

The challenges confronting both the SNP and the Scottish government mirror those encountered by the Labour government.

"The responsibility for ongoing public dissatisfaction will become a significant point of contention. The outcome will hinge not only on circumstances and comparative success but also on how skillfully politicians manage the situation."

'Constitutional issue now linked with Brexit debate'

Sir John noted that since 2014, there has been a "significant" shift in public perceptions, and Brexit has altered the dynamics of the independence discussion.

He stated: "People's opinions about the EU had no correlation with their decision to vote Yes or No."

"Voting patterns in the 2016 Brexit referendum showed no correlation to the ways individuals cast their votes in the 2014 Scottish independence referendum."

Yet, the issue of constitutional significance has now become entangled with the Brexit debate in Northern Ireland.

Sir John raised the issue of whether Scotland would fare better as part of the UK but not the EU, or within the EU but separate from the UK. He observed, "Currently, without a thorough discussion on the matter, it seems that the prevailing opinion is leaning towards favoring membership in the EU and an exit from the UK."

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Public Opinion

In March of the previous year, Sky News traveled to the four local government districts where the majority supported the Yes campaign in 2014 – Dundee, Glasgow, North Lanarkshire, and West Dunbartonshire.

Numerous individuals mentioned enduring rifts within families and friendships due to the contentious referendum, with several proponents of the Yes campaign expressing their ongoing desire for a second independence referendum.

Regardless of their stance, most participants expressed a desire for the Scottish government to focus on pressing everyday concerns, such as the escalating cost of living, healthcare challenges, and the ongoing issue of high drug-related fatalities in the country.

A decade after the referendum, we traveled to Clackmannanshire's No region to gather opinions from residents of the "Wee County."

'Sturgeon and Salmond must resolve their differences'

At 76 years old, Margo Aitken supported the Yes vote in 2014 and remains prepared to do so in the

She mentioned that the "spark" is still present, and expressed her desire by stating, "It's always there. I just wish I were physically able to participate in the marches."

The retiree is of the opinion that neither the Conservative party nor the newly formed Labour government have any concern for Scotland at all.

An SNP supporter expressed that the party must unify and resolve any internal divisions.

She further urged the SNP to collaborate with additional groups that support independence.

Discussing the rift between Ms. Sturgeon and Mr. Salmond, she mentioned, "Clearly, there have been intense emotions involved at times."

"Why can't they simply mature, resolve their differences, and make peace? If they managed to do so, they would be an unstoppable force."

"The nation is a horror"

At the age of 61, Jackie Conroy cast a 'No' vote back in 2014 and affirms she

She stated, "The current most pressing issue is the cost of living crisis – this is what the government needs to address."

The nation is in a dire state. Rather than prioritizing independence, attention should be diverted to other crucial issues, particularly the healthcare system.

"Now they're removing the universal heating subsidy for retirees. It's outrageous—who does such a thing? It seems to me that once someone retires, they should receive all services at no cost."

'Since 2014, there has been a

Rita Anderson, aged 67, supported the affirmative side in the 2014 vote but is currently undecided about doing so if given

She stated: "Since that time, everything has transformed. The priority now should be addressing the cost of living crisis. It's been excruciating.

"I've spent my whole life working, so I really hope to see significant enhancements for retirees initially. I receive the state pension, but it barely covers the basics."

"After covering expenses for gasoline, housing, and groceries, there isn't much money remaining. Additionally, the government has decided to reduce the [universal winter fuel payment]."

"While some advocate that Scottish independence would improve conditions, the current situation in the country makes it difficult to confidently embrace such a significant change."

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"Building a More Robust Scotland in a Revitalized United

The Scottish Conservative Party remains steadfast in its support for the United Kingdom.

MSP Meghan Gallacher, who holds the position of shadow cabinet secretary for constitution, external affairs and culture within her party, stated: "Scotland benefits the most when our two governments collaborate to enhance our economy and invest in our communities."

In light of the significant defeats suffered by the SNP across Scotland in the recent general election, it would be prudent for the party to set aside their agenda for independence and instead concentrate on pressing issues that impact the daily lives of the public, like cutting down on NHS waiting times, improving the quality of education in our schools, and enhancing community safety.

Scottish Labour maintains that the country's brightest days are still to come.

Scottish MSP Neil Bibby, serving as the spokesperson for constitutional affairs, stated, "Regardless of your vote in the 2014 referendum, there is a collective opportunity to improve our nation."

In the recent general election, we initiated the transformation in Scotland by replacing an ineffective administration, and in 2026, we will have the chance to undertake this again.

"Labour has redefined the interactions between the Scottish government and the rest of the UK, aiming to strengthen Scotland's position within a revitalized United Kingdom."

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