2024 Exit Polls Predict Labour Landslide: Check Your Constituency Forecast Now

Exit Survey: What does the prediction say about the election outcome in my district?

Utilize our search tool to discover the projected results for your district according to the exit survey.

Thursday, July 4, 2024, 10:

According to an exit poll conducted on the day of the election, Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party is predicted to secure a substantial majority of 170 seats.

Projections indicate that the Labour Party is expected to secure 410 seats, while the Conservative Party is anticipated to win 131 seats. The Liberal Democrats are predicted to capture 61 seats, and the Scottish National Party is expected to garner 10

According to an exit poll conducted today by Ipsos UK on behalf of Sky News, the BBC, and ITV News, it appears that Nigel Farage's Reform UK might secure 13 seats. The poll also indicates that the Green Party could capture 2 seats, while the Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru, is predicted to gain 4 seats.

Enter your postcode or the name of your constituency to discover the exit poll predictions for your region.

EXIT SURVEY FOR YOUR ELECTORAL DISTRICT

Source: Ipsos UK on behalf of Sky News/BBC/ITV News. Data for districts in Northern Ireland is not available. Want to understand how the exit survey functions? View the most recent outcomes.

The projections won't be refreshed as the votes are tallied, so make sure to follow our continuously updated results page to view the actual outcomes for each district. Afterwards, you can return to this page to see how they stack up against the initial exit polls.

What exactly is an exit poll and what is its mechanism?

This is distinct from a typical opinion poll. Individuals are randomly chosen as they exit polling places after casting their votes and are requested to fill out a duplicate of the official ballot.

It inquires about their recent actions instead of their future intentions, which is the usual focus of standard opinion polls.

The purpose of this is to track variations in voting percentages compared to the last election in selected electoral districts. For this year’s exit poll, 133 polling stations were surveyed, representing just a minor segment of the 632 constituencies across Great Britain (excluding Northern Ireland).

Most electoral districts are chosen for their role in the contest between the two primary parties – Labour and the Conservatives. A lesser number serve as competitive areas between the Liberal Democrats and each of these major parties.

The rise in the number of Scottish National Party members in the UK Parliament has led to an increase in the number of polling stations in Scotland, designed to better monitor electoral contests between the SNP and the Conservative Party, as well as between the SNP

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The team behind the exit polls, featuring Sky News' election specialists Professors Michael Thrasher and Will Jennings, aim to develop frameworks that interpret shifts in voting patterns from one election to another. They utilize demographic and social factors, including age, housing, and education, to support their analysis.

In 2019, the way individuals cast their ballots in the 2016 EU Referendum surfaced as a key factor linked with the shift in votes from Labour to the Conservatives, particularly in regions where exit polls were conducted.

The exit poll group utilized this data to forecast a probable rise in Conservative vote percentages in other areas with high Leave votes nationwide, including locations where no voting inquiries were made.

What do the varying likelihoods signify?

When an exit poll indicates that a party is 95% or more likely to secure a seat, we categorize it as a probable victory for that party.

When the primary party's probability of victory ranges from 80% to 94%, we categorize it as a "probable" gain or retention.

When no single party holds an 80% likelihood of victory, the race is classified as "too close to call." However, we will continue to provide the estimated probabilities of each party securing a win based on the polling data.

This year, 133 seats remain undecided, leaving plenty of outcomes up in the air as the results continue to roll in.

What is the method used to determine the outcomes

The figures prominently displayed on television and at the beginning of this article represent a numerical sum of the probability percentages for each political party in every constituency.

If a political group has a 90% likelihood of winning in ten separate contests, it is anticipated that they would secure victory in nine and be defeated in one.

A single defeat, despite a 90% predicted chance of victory, might seem unusual on its own. However, the general accuracy of exit polls is maintained by offsetting this loss with an unlikely victory in one of the ten seats where the party's chances are only 10%.

Thus, they would secure ten out of the 20 available seats in that situation.

In 2019, the exit poll closely estimated the number of seats the Conservatives would win, projecting 368 seats for Boris Johnson's party, which ultimately secured 365—a discrepancy of less than 1%.

Forty-two separate seats deviated from the exit poll predictions, yet they ultimately offset one another.

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