**”Revving Up for Round Two: What Past Back-to-Back MotoGP Races Tell Us About the 2024 Emilia Romagna GP”**

What insights can past MotoGP races provide about the 2024 Emilia Romagna GP?

This weekend, MotoGP returns to Misano for its first consecutive race at the same circuit since the COVID-19 pandemic. What can historical data reveal about potential outcomes this time around?

It's undeniable that holding the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at the Misano circuit just two weeks after the San Marino GP at the same location creates a negative image for the MotoGP championship.

The Indian GP was initially scheduled for its second installment during the weekend of September 20-22, following its first appearance on the calendar last year. However, these plans were officially canceled due to "operational considerations" and the unsuitable weather conditions caused by the intense heat in the area during this period.

It is believed that the race organizers may have violated their agreement with Dorna due to financial issues. India is now being considered for a spot on the schedule next March.

The first ever Kazakhstan Grand Prix, initially scheduled for June but delayed because of regional flooding, was later assigned to replace the Indian Grand Prix on the calendar. However, it was ultimately cancelled in 2023 as the venue near Almati wasn't prepared in time.

Amid speculation about hosting another race in Qatar and possibly returning to Brno, MotoGP ultimately decided to hold a second race at Misano. This decision brings back the Emilia Romagna GP, an event that hasn't taken place since 2021, which was during the second season impacted by COVID-19.

It wasn't until the middle of July that the racing community learned the location for this weekend's event, just days before they needed to arrive in Lombok for the Indonesian Grand Prix. In a world still adjusting after the COVID-19 pandemic, such last-minute schedule changes for events that were already problematic and controversial from the beginning are simply not tolerable.

Liberty Media is expected to address this issue once it finalizes its purchase of an 86% stake in Dorna later this year. The organization, which revealed the 2025 Formula 1 calendar in April, will likely aim to prevent such delays in the future. Meanwhile, MotoGP has yet to finalize its schedule for the upcoming year as of September.

Despite the chaotic 2024 schedule, MotoGP will host another race at Misano. Actually, it's more of a return, since the paddock had to be dismantled and stored nearby because the circuit was previously reserved for another event during the week between the San Marino and Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix is the first instance since the 2021 season where a single track has hosted two races in the same year. This practice began in 2020 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when five circuits held 10 out of the 14 races for that season. As the situation improved slightly in 2021, four tracks still managed to host eight races that year.

In 2020, all the recurring events were held consecutively. In 2021, MotoGP's two races in Portugal and Misano were spaced out with other events in between, whereas the races in Qatar and Austria were scheduled as double-headers.

What will the effect be at Misano in 2024?

Usually, races held repeatedly at the same venue result in more competitive qualifying sessions and tighter races. This predictability arises because each rider comes to the subsequent event equipped with extensive data from the earlier race.

In the nine races conducted in 2020 and 2021 on a circuit used for the second time, six of them experienced a reduction in overall time compared to the prior grand prix. Additionally, the time difference between the top 10 qualifiers decreased significantly in six of these races, which is evident from the table below.

Top 10 Qualification Gap at Recurring Tracks

The table above omits data from Misano in 2021. This is primarily because the San Marino GP was held in September and the Emilia Romagna GP in October, leading to cooler weather conditions affecting the performances.

At the 2021 San Marino Grand Prix, the gap between the fastest 10 qualifiers was 1.066 seconds. This difference increased to 1.642 seconds at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, primarily due to weather conditions rather than a decrease in speed during dry conditions. The race at San Marino was finished in 41 minutes and 48.305 seconds, whereas the Emilia Romagna race took a bit longer, clocking in at 41 minutes and 52.830 seconds.

Theoretically, the 2024 Emilia Romagna event should feature more competitive qualifying rounds, and the fight for the lead is expected to be as intense as it was during the last San Marino Grand Prix. However, in all but two events during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the gap between the top 10 finishers at the end of a race did not decrease. This week, though, the field is anticipated to be much tighter due to the significant impact of weather conditions on last weekend’s race in Misano.

Looking at the performance trends, the outcomes of the repeated races in 2020 and 2021 underscore the significant shift in the balance of power within MotoGP over the subsequent years.

Yamaha has emerged as the leading manufacturer in this domain, securing five victories during the second appearance at a track. In 2020, Fabio Quartararo clinched both races at Jerez, winning the Andalucian GP; Maverick Vinales triumphed at the Emilia Romagna GP, and Franco Morbidelli achieved two of his three grand prix wins at the Teruel and Valencia GPs. In 2021, Quartararo also won the Doha GP.

Following Yamaha, KTM has achieved two victories: one by Miguel Oliveira at the 2020 Styrian Grand Prix for Tech3 and another by Brad Binder, who impressively won the wet 2021 Austrian Grand Prix on slick tires. The remaining wins are evenly split between Ducati and Honda, with Francesco Bagnaia claiming the 2021 Algarve Grand Prix and Marc Marquez winning the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix for Honda that same year.

Anticipating this weekend’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, it's clear that it could be a crucial juncture in the 2024 season. This race kicks off a sequence of three consecutive events, following with races in Indonesia and Japan, with the championship contention currently very tight.

Following a stellar performance in the sprint at the San Marino Grand Prix, Jorge Martin's tactical error during the flag-to-flag race caused his championship lead to diminish significantly, dropping from 26 points to a mere seven points ahead of Bagnaia, who secured second place in both events.

After a collision with Alex Marquez at the Aragon GP left him less than fully fit, Bagnaia has now reported in Ducati's preview of the Emilia Romagna GP that he is back to full health. With Martin setting a new lap record and taking pole position at the San Marino GP, he will now face a much stronger Bagnaia.

Following his second victory of the 2024 season, Marquez is now a formidable presence. He trails Martin by just 53 points, with the Gresini rider clearly gaining momentum. Although winning the Emilia Romagna GP last year doesn't affect this year's race, it is noteworthy that this marks the first time since the Qatar race that Marquez is competing on a track where he has previous Ducati experience.

Discovering the same bike sensation he experienced at the Red Bull Ring upon arriving at Misano for the San Marino GP, he now faces his first genuine opportunity this season to focus on and improve his weaknesses compared to his Ducati competitors.

Enea Bastianini has consistently finished on the podium in every Misano grand prix he has participated in since joining MotoGP. During the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP, he managed to secure third place from Quartararo, who was declared the champion of that race, while riding an Avintia-operated Ducati from the previous year.

Opting for the soft tire at the previous San Marino GP was a bit of a risk that didn’t fully succeed, though he still managed to secure third place with impressive speed. If the conditions are right, his experience with that tire over a race distance could be beneficial this weekend. Meanwhile, Ducati teammate Morbidelli delivered his top performance of the season at the San Marino GP and now has another opportunity to complete the task, following a crash that took him out of podium contention in the main race.

Similar to Marquez, KTM rider Pedro Acosta arrives at a circuit he is familiar with. In Qatar, this prior experience allowed him to compete for a podium position before eventually dropping back. That race marked his first grand prix, and his performance at the San Marino GP was strong enough to challenge Ducati. With additional information gathered from the post-race testing, Acosta might emerge as an unexpected contender.

For individuals who faced difficulties initially, this is an opportunity to correct past mistakes and possibly achieve something significant. Aprilia is among those looking to benefit from this chance after encountering recent challenges. Meanwhile, a solid performance by Quartararo and Yamaha at the San Marino GP has laid the groundwork for a series of positive outcomes, helping them steadily climb the ranks.

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