Deciphering the Emilia Romagna GP: Insights from MotoGP’s Past Double-Headers Signal Thrilling Race Ahead

Insights from past consecutive MotoGP races on the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

For the first time since the pandemic, MotoGP is set for consecutive races at the same circuit this weekend in Misano. What can history teach us about potential outcomes this time around?

The unavoidable truth is that having MotoGP come back to the Misano track for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, merely a fortnight after hosting the San Marino GP at the same location, casts the championship in a negative light.

Initially, the plan was to host the second iteration of the Indian Grand Prix during the weekend spanning from the 20th to the 22nd of September, following its inaugural event on the schedule the previous year. However, these plans were ultimately abandoned due to what was officially cited as "operational considerations" and the unsuitability of the weather, attributed to the intense heat typical of the region during this period.

It is believed that the race organizers failed to meet their contractual obligations with Dorna due to financial issues. Consequently, India is now being considered for a spot on the calendar this coming March.

The first-ever Grand Prix in Kazakhstan, initially scheduled for June, was delayed because of regional floods and subsequently rescheduled to take India's place in the racing calendar. However, it was eventually called off in 2023 because the venue near Almati wasn't prepared, leading to the cancellation of this event as well.

Amid speculation about a possible encore in Qatar and talks of revisiting Brno, MotoGP has opted for another round at Misano, bringing back the Emilia Romagna GP, an event last organized in 2021 amidst the disruptions of the second COVID-19 season.

The racing community only discovered their location for this weekend in mid-July, a mere few days before they were due on Lombok Island for the Indonesian Grand Prix. In the period following the pandemic, such last-minute changes to the schedule for events that were already controversial and met with skepticism from the start are deemed intolerable.

Liberty Media, upon finalizing its purchase of an 86% stake in Dorna by year's end, is likely to address this issue moving forward. This is evident considering that they revealed the Formula 1 schedule for 2025 as early as April, whereas MotoGP's calendar for the upcoming year remains unsettled as of September.

Despite the cluttered schedule of 2024, MotoGP will continue to compete in Misano with an additional race. In reality, it's making a comeback since the paddock had to be dismantled and temporarily stored in the vicinity because of a previously scheduled event occurring at the track in the week separating the San Marino and Emilia Romagna Grand Prix events.

The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix signifies the occasion since the 2021 season where a single circuit has hosted two grand prix events in the same season. This approach was initially adopted in 2020 during the peak of the COVID pandemic, when ten of the season's 14 races were held across five circuits. As global conditions slightly improved in 2021, eight races were conducted at four different tracks that year.

In 2020, all similar events were held consecutively. However, in 2021, the MotoGP races in Portugal and Misano were spaced out with different events in between, whereas the Qatar and Austria races were organized as back-to-back events.

How will this affect Misano in 2024?

It's common for competitions at the same venue to result in tighter battles during qualifying and the early stages of races. This makes sense because, by the time the second race at a circuit rolls around, each competitor is fully equipped with insights and data gathered from the first event.

In the nine races that took place in 2020 and 2021 on a circuit for a repeat occurrence, six witnessed a decrease in the total time compared to the earlier grand prix. Additionally, in six of these events, the time difference between the top 10 qualifiers narrowed significantly, as illustrated in the following table.

Gap in Top 10 Qualifiers at Recurring Locations

From the table presented, it's evident that Misano is absent from the 2021 list. This is primarily because the San Marino Grand Prix occurred in September and the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix in October, resulting in colder weather affecting the outcomes.

In the 2021 San Marino Grand Prix, the gap between the top 10 qualifiers was just 1.066 seconds, expanding to 1.642 seconds in the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, a difference attributed to weather conditions rather than a decrease in speed on a dry track. The duration of the San Marino GP was recorded at 41 minutes and 48.305 seconds, with the Emilia Romagna GP finishing a bit more slowly, in 41 minutes and 52.830 seconds.

Hypothetically, the competition in the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix is expected to be more competitive during the qualifying rounds, and the race for the lead is anticipated to be as closely contested as it was in the previous San Marino Grand Prix. Nevertheless, in nearly every instance throughout 2020 and 2021, the margin encompassing the first 10 finishers by the race's conclusion narrowed, except for two occasions. However, considering the significant impact of weather conditions on the outcomes of the recent race at Misano, it's predicted that the gap between the competitors will be notably tighter in the upcoming event.

Looking at the patterns from the consecutive races in 2020 and 2021, it's evident that the dynamics of dominance within MotoGP have significantly transformed over the following years.

Yamaha stands as the leading brand in this sector, achieving victory five times during their second appearance at a circuit. In 2020, Fabio Quartararo secured a win in both races held in Jerez, claiming the Andalucian GP; Maverick Vinales triumphed in the Emilia Romagna GP, and Franco Morbidelli won three grand prix races, two of which were at the Teruel and Valencia GPs. The following year, in 2021, Quartararo took the top spot at the Doha GP.

KTM has also made its mark with a pair of victories, thanks to Miguel Oliveira's triumph at the 2020 Styrian GP riding for Tech3, and Brad Binder's remarkable win in the rain-soaked 2021 Austrian GP on slick tyres. The rest of the victories were split between Ducati and Honda, with Francesco Bagnaia claiming the top spot at the 2021 Algarve GP for Ducati, and Marc Marquez achieving his last win for Honda during the Emilia Romagna GP of the same year.

As we look forward to the upcoming Emilia Romagna Grand Prix this weekend, it's clear that it represents a crucial juncture in the 2024 racing season. This event kicks off a trio of consecutive races, continuing on to Indonesia and Japan, with the championship race hanging in the balance as we approach.

Following his triumph in the sprint race at the San Marino GP, Jorge Martin's tactical mistake during the flag-to-flag grand prix resulted in his championship advantage being reduced from 26 points to a mere seven ahead of Bagnaia, who finished second in both events.

After not being at peak health due to an incident involving Alex Marquez during the Aragon Grand Prix, Bagnaia announced in Ducati's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix preview that he has returned to optimal fitness. Following his record-setting pole position at the San Marino Grand Prix, Martin is set to face a significantly more formidable challenge from Bagnaia.

Following his second victory in the 2024 season, Marquez is now a looming threat. He's only 53 points behind Martin, with the momentum clearly favoring the Gresini team member. While his win at last year's Emilia Romagna GP may not carry direct relevance to this year's race, the noteworthy aspect is that this marks the first occasion since Qatar that Marquez has competed on a circuit where Ducati has previously raced.

Upon discovering the sensation he experienced on his bike at the Red Bull Ring once he took to the track at Misano for the San Marino GP, he now faces his initial genuine opportunity this year to focus on and improve his areas of weakness in comparison to his competitors riding Ducatis.

Enea Bastianini has consistently secured a place on the podium in every Misano grand prix he has participated in since his promotion to MotoGP. During the 2021 Emilia Romagna GP, he clinched third place, overtaking Quartararo – the newly crowned champion of that race – while riding a Ducati from the previous year managed by Avintia.

Opting for the soft tyre at the San Marino GP recently didn't yield the expected benefits, yet he managed to secure a commendable third place due to his impressive speed. If the situation demands, his extensive experience with that tyre over long distances might prove beneficial in the upcoming race. Ducati's Morbidelli showcased his top performance of the season at the same Grand Prix and has another opportunity to make a mark, following his earlier departure from the leading positions due to a crash in the main event.

Similar to Marquez, KTM's Pedro Acosta arrives at a circuit where he already has experience with the track layout. In his first-ever Grand Prix in Qatar, he was competing for a podium position before eventually dropping back. His performance during the San Marino GP showed that he could challenge Ducati, having gathered additional insights from the post-race test, positioning Acosta as a potential surprise contender.

For individuals who faced challenges initially, this presents an opportunity to correct past mistakes and possibly achieve significant results. Aprilia, after facing recent setbacks, is likely looking forward to this opportunity, while Quartararo and Yamaha's impressive showing at the San Marino GP has set the stage for a series of positive outcomes as they work their way up the rankings.

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