Sunak on Defense: Mapping the Conservative Strategy in a Tense Electoral Battle

Rishi Sunak's campaign trail indicates a strategic focus on countering Labour and Liberal Democrats

Sky News has been monitoring the destinations party leaders have chosen during the initial week of the general election campaign, analyzing these selections to understand the strategic approaches of each party.

By Dr. Hannah Bunting, Sky News Election Analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, Data Journalist

Saturday, June 1, 2024, 09:

The Prime Minister has adopted a guarded stance, indicating the Conservatives' concern over their significant lag in the polls.

Sir Keir Starmer's recent tours illustrate the breadth of their goals and underscore Labour's recognition of the difficulties ahead. They require an additional 125 seats to secure the narrowest majority.

The current election is taking place within revised voting districts, which have seen considerable alterations from their 2019 configurations.

In this analysis, we employ hypothetical outcomes derived from projections by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who are honorary professors at the University of Exeter. These projections estimate what the 2019 election results might have looked like under the revised constituency boundaries.

Holding strong in conservative strongholds

In his inaugural campaign appearance, Rishi Sunak chose Erewash in the East Midlands, a district traditionally seen as a stronghold due to its significant 22% Conservative majority. However, his visit suggests that he may perceive some potential risk in maintaining this seat.

A win for Labour in this area could signal the party's shift from being the largest single party in a hung parliament to potentially securing an outright majority, should the same voter swing occur nationwide.

Labour last controlled the Erewash constituency, which remained unchanged in the latest boundary adjustments, between 1997 and 2010 during the tenures of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

Labor's high

Labour's trip to the neighboring constituency of Derbyshire Mid in the East Midlands highlights their audacity. They require a shift of over 16 points to wrest control of the seat from the Conservatives, yet their recent successes in mayoral elections could suggest they are optimistic about swaying the local electorate.

Visits to the Midlands underscore its strategic importance in the electoral contest between the leading political factions. With the Conservatives holding 76 seats across both the Eastern and Western Midlands, the area is vital for their overall success in the upcoming general election. Labour's performance in this region could tip the scales, potentially transforming them from the largest single party to securing an outright majority.

Sir Keir's tour of various constituencies highlights Labour's bold aspirations. They are targeting areas, even those with substantial Conservative leads, and starting their campaign in Kent signals their confidence in capturing territories that were last won under Blair's leadership.

Risk of Changes

Conservative difficulties in Kent might be aggravated by the presence of the Reform party. In the constituencies of Dover and Deal, where Conservative Natalie Elphicke switched allegiance from Conservative to Labour, Reform leader Richard Tice concentrated on the issue of immigration. The fact that Reform's honorary president, Nigel Farage, chose not to run in this election was a slight relief for the Conservatives.

Overall, Mr. Sunak has made 18 trips, 16 of which were to constituencies the Conservatives currently hold. According to the latest polls, which indicate a 16-point swing, 11 of these are at risk of being taken by Labour.

Despite the challenges, Sunak continues to stand by what many consider indefensible. His most recently visited battleground is the Vale of Glamorgan, where he toured a brewery in Barry. The Labour Party needs just a 2.6-point swing to claim this seat, making it a seemingly hopeful majority for him to maintain.

Intriguingly, despite the considerable demands and numerous stakeholders he needs to appease, Sunak managed to carve out time for a visit to East Belfast, a location where the Conservatives do not have a candidate. This visit was a strategic move in his broader initiative of a rapid tour across all four nations, aimed at projecting the image of a prime minister.

Liberal Democrat stronghold in the south

The Prime Minister is currently engaged in battles on multiple fronts, as the Liberal Democrats gain ground in numerous constituencies throughout Southern England. During his tour, he stopped at four major locations that are on the Liberal Democrats' radar, notably Chesham and Amersham where the Liberal Democrats won their first MP in a striking victory during the 2022 by-election.

In the South West and South East, 65 constituencies exist where the Liberal Democrats are the primary opponents to the Conservatives. Ed Davey has visited nine such constituencies where the Liberal Democrats were runners-up in the 2019 elections. Each of these locations either moved in favor of the Lib Dems in the 2019 elections or were previously controlled by them before their significant electoral losses in 2015.

Davey started his trip in Eastbourne, where he relished an ice cream in a crucial battleground district requiring a 2.1% shift to surpass the Conservative contender. He kicked off his Yellow Hammer 1 campaign bus tour in South Cambridgeshire, and by Thursday, he was sliding down a waterslide in Frome & East Somerton. This new constituency is set to succeed Somerton & Frome, a seat they captured in a 2023 special election. It's this type of victory they aim to repeat, while the Conservatives are eager to prevent a similar outcome.

Labour Focused on the Goal

Sir Keir Starmer has made campaign stops in eight Tory-held constituencies, and he has also ventured into areas in Scotland governed by the SNP. This indicates that Labour is targeting not only Conservative seats but also those held by John Swinney's SNP, amid the party's current difficulties.

Every parliamentary seat that the Labour Party captures from the SNP in Scotland decreases the number of seats they need to gain from the Conservatives in England and Wales to achieve a majority.

The constituencies in Glasgow, traditionally held by Labour, are now critical areas of contention. It's no surprise, then, that the Labour leader made a beeline for Glasgow East. This area has undergone considerable boundary adjustments, which have given the SNP an estimated majority of 15%.

Approaches in Scotland

The newly appointed leader of the SNP, Mr. Swinney, kicked off their campaign from Edinburgh, a city where they currently possess three out of five seats. Recent polls indicate that Labour could potentially win all three seats in the upcoming election.

He also made a stop in Dumfries, a region covered by two electoral districts where the SNP aims to unseat the Conservatives. To achieve this, they require less than a five percentage point shift. The resignation of Scottish Secretary Alister Jack in Dumfries and Galloway could indicate his belief that the Conservative chances of holding onto the seat are weak.

Though a limited number of Labour-held constituencies appear at risk, the party faces certain challenges, notably from the Green Party.

Their campaign began in Bristol, where they are optimistic about their chances in the upcoming election.

Recent trends in local election voting suggest that they might secure victories in three out of the five local districts, all previously held by Labour in 2019.

Dr. Hannah Bunting serves as an elections analyst for Sky News and is also the Co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.

The Data and Forensic Unit at Sky News is a diverse team committed to delivering clear and honest journalism. We collect, examine, and illustrate data to craft stories driven by facts. Our approach blends conventional journalistic techniques with sophisticated analysis of satellite imagery, social media, and various publicly accessible sources. By using multimedia narratives, we strive to enhance understanding of global events and demonstrate our journalistic processes.

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