Stunning Poll Results Spark Tory Panic and Labour Complacency Concerns as Election Day Nears

Alarm is likely to ripple through the Conservative Party following a remarkable survey result. Prominent Conservative members may be worried about retaining their positions, while Labour might be concerned about becoming overly complacent.

Senior political reporter @joncraig

Monday, June 3, 2024, 21:

The results from the SkyNews/YouGov MRP poll spell trouble for the Conservative Party, cause for concern for Labour, and bring positive tidings for both the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.

Predictions of a significant defeat for the Conservatives are likely to cause alarm among the party's candidates and may trigger a new wave of rebellion against Rishi Sunak from the party's right wing.

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There are concerns within the Labour Party that projections of Sir Keir Starmer achieving an electoral victory surpassing Tony Blair's 1997 landslide could lead to complacency among its members.

However, for the Liberal Democrats, the forecast suggesting that under Sir Ed Davey's leadership, the party could achieve outcomes reminiscent of the successful eras under Paddy Ashdown and Charles Kennedy, will significantly bolster their confidence.

Reform UK is likely to be particularly pleased, especially with Nigel Farage taking over leadership from Richard Tice. They are expected to argue that with Labour poised for victory, Conservative voters should consider supporting them instead.

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The leadership of the Conservative Party is likely to be deeply troubled by predictions indicating that several of its key figures, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, are in danger of not being re-elected.

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Mr Hunt is contesting the newly formed electoral district of Godalming and Ash, which is advantageously situated in the wealthy area of Surrey known as the stockbroker belt, an area that has been consistently represented by Conservative MPs since 1910.

However, the cabinet ministers at risk are in constituencies that were under Labour control during the Blair and Brown era or the Liberal Democrats during the leaderships of Ashdown, Kennedy, or Nick Clegg.

The constituency of Welwyn Hatfield was under Labour control from 1974 to 1979 and again from 1997 to 2005, until the current Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, seized it from Labour.

Since its establishment in 1974, the Portsmouth North constituency, represented by Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, has often been indicative of broader electoral trends. Mordaunt secured this seat from the Labour Party in the 2010 elections.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is holding onto a narrow lead of 981 votes against the Liberal Democrats in Cheltenham, a constituency the LibDems previously controlled from 1992 to 2015.

How will the dynamics shift with Reform UK, now that the charismatic Mr. Farage has returned as leader and is participating in television debates, making him a regular fixture in the homes of voters each evening?

The survey indicates that the party is unlikely to secure any positions, and in Clacton, Mr. Farage is contending with a substantial Conservative lead of 24,702, previously secured by the ex-television actor Giles Watling.

According to a YouGov forecast, Hartlepool, which has been under Conservative control since Jill Mortimer's victory in the 2021 by-election with a lead of 6,940 votes over Labour, presents the most promising opportunity for Reform UK.

This could shift now that Mr. Farage has decided to contest in Clacton—a constituency where Douglas Carswell, who switched from the Conservatives, secured a victory for UKIP in a 2014 by-election and successfully retained the seat in the 2015 general election.

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As is typical with forecasts of a dominant Labour victory, there will be considerable doubt. Indeed, when Mr. Blair secured a 179-seat majority in 1997, it effectively erased John Major's previous 21-seat majority from 1992.

In the 2019 election, Boris Johnson secured a majority of 80 seats. According to Sky News' election expert, Professor Michael Thrasher, adjustments to electoral boundaries could increase the Conservative Party's effective majority to 94 seats.

However, the results of this survey are quite remarkable, with Labour's 42.9% slightly trailing behind the 45% and 46% seen in other recent polls.

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With a month left until the elections on July 4, it's common for ruling parties lagging in early polls to narrow their deficit as the campaign progresses.

However, in the current election, this has not occurred so far.

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