Shifting Gears: Ricciardo’s Red Bull Exit and the Rising Pressure on Perez Amid Red Bull’s Future F1 Strategy

The broader implications of Daniel Ricciardo's F1 departure and its impact on Sergio Perez

Red Bull's move to cut Daniel Ricciardo and elevate Liam Lawson in their affiliate team RB marks an initial move towards addressing their broader F1 driver roster issue.

After receiving formal confirmation on Thursday that Lawson will replace Ricciardo in the RB seat for the remainder of the 2024 season, the 22-year-old from New Zealand has six races ahead to prove his worth for a potential future role with Red Bull.

This tryout is expected to play a crucial role in deciding if Lawson will remain with RB, partnering with Yuki Tsunoda into 2025, and it might also impact the main Red Bull team.

"Essentially, I have until the conclusion of this season, and as it progresses, I'll learn more. For now, it's the six races," Lawson stated during a conversation with New Zealand's Newstalk ZB radio station.

When questioned about the necessities for obtaining a permanent position in 2025, he responded, "Primarily, I have to deliver results. It's crucial for me to demonstrate my value in F1 and, I believe, replicate the success I achieved last year."

"That's what's opened up this opportunity for me. Now, I just have to perform well enough to secure my position for next year."

Perez faces increased scrutiny

The decision to let go of Ricciardo opens up an opportunity for Red Bull to thoroughly assess Lawson's potential in F1, with Tsunoda as his peer.

This isn't the first time Lawson has stepped up to the plate. Previously, he filled in for Ricciardo when the Australian suffered a hand injury in an accident, just two races into his return to F1, taking over the spot initially held by Nyck de Vries.

During his five appearances, Lawson captured Red Bull's attention with multiple consistent and composed performances. His most notable achievement occurred in Singapore, where he advanced to Q3 and secured a ninth-place finish, earning two points.

At this point, Red Bull had locked in Ricciardo and Tsunoda as their team for 2024, meaning that, despite leaving a positive mark, Lawson would remain out of action for an additional year.

Lawson's opportunity for redemption is primarily aimed at keeping RB in front of Haas in the team standings, placing renewed pressure on Sergio Perez, who hasn't been performing at his best.

In the wake of inking a fresh two-year deal in early June, rumors about Perez's career trajectory intensified during the summer due to a noticeable drop in performance. In response to the growing rumors, Red Bull took steps to affirm that Perez would complete the rest of the 2024 season.

The intention is for Perez to maintain his position until 2025, but there's absolutely no assurance that he will remain for the entire season, or even if he will begin it at all.

Amidst Ricciardo's departure from Formula 1, Perez faced difficulties, finishing in 10th position at the Singapore Grand Prix. Meanwhile, his Red Bull colleague, Max Verstappen, secured the runner-up spot, as Red Bull fell further behind McLaren in the team rankings.

Red Bull's team leader, Christian Horner, has called on Perez to step up his performance, stating that the team requires both drivers to be performing at their best. This serves as a stark caution to Perez, who may now be anxiously awaiting to see how Lawson fares.

Perez's job security at Red Bull was mainly due to the absence of clear alternatives for his role. However, with Lawson joining RB, it's likely to prompt some reconsideration for both him and the main team.

Red Bull's 2026 Driver Conundrum

Ricciardo's unfortunate and somewhat uncomfortable departure from Formula 1 signifies a broader strategy for Red Bull. It emphasized that he doesn't fit into the team's long-term vision, making his aspirations for a dream comeback to Red Bull merely an unattainable fantasy.

Perez's recent struggles might be causing immediate concerns for Red Bull, yet they also encounter a challenge regarding their driver selection for 2026, which aligns with Formula 1's upcoming significant rule changes.

In terms of official records, there's one spot open next to Verstappen, whose contract extends through 2028. However, there's also ongoing discussion regarding the career prospects of the Dutch driver.

Verstappen remains a topic of speculation regarding a potential move to Mercedes, a team that has openly pursued him for some time. Additionally, his recent confrontation with the FIA during the Singapore Grand Prix, following a penalty related to an incident involving profanity in F1, has sparked new discussions about the possibility of him prematurely ending his career.

Horner has acknowledged that Red Bull is facing challenging decisions in the next year as they assess the potential of the drivers in their talent pool.

"In our planning for the future," Horner shared with Sky Sports F1 during the event in Singapore, "we're broadening our horizon. Liam Lawson is among the promising talents we have. However, when it comes to other racers like Colapinto, Bearman, and Antonelli, we're still assessing if he matches their caliber. It's something that only the future can reveal."

"Isack Hadjar has been making waves in Formula 2, having led the championship until not too long ago. There's also an up-and-coming star in F3, Arvid Lindblad, who I'm especially enthusiastic about. Our junior program is robust with talent. We're taking a moment to evaluate all the potential paths we could take moving forward."

Should Lawson manage to make a significant impact on Red Bull, persuading them to prefer him over Perez for the 2025 season, or at any time in the upcoming season, then Isack Hadjar (competing in Formula 2), Ayumu Iwasa (participating in Super Formula), and potentially Arvid Lindblad (active in Formula 3), are likely to be leading contenders to ascend to RB.

Horner emphasized that Red Bull is open to considering drivers beyond their current lineup, notably mentioning George Russell as a possible choice for 2026, a statement that provoked a reaction from Mercedes' Toto Wolff.

"George Russell's contract concludes at the end of the following year. It would be unwise to overlook this fact," Horner stated. "There could also be other skilled drivers whose contracts might be ending too."

Horner seemed to suggest that the double grand prix victor might serve as Red Bull's fallback option should Verstappen decide to switch to Mercedes. This comes as Mercedes is set to elevate their much-touted young talent, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, to take over from Lewis Hamilton who is moving to Ferrari next year. Whether Red Bull would genuinely consider going after Russell if Verstappen remained is still uncertain.

In any case, given the apparent improbability that Perez will receive an extension beyond his existing contract, Red Bull is expected to be in the market for at least one new driver.

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