Sunak’s Summer Gamble: Prime Minister Calls Snap Election Amid Euro 2024 Fever

General Election 2024: Rishi Sunak defies his cautious image by taking a risk

The Prime Minister’s decision to call an election will see it clash with the frenzy of Euro 2024 football. Is the fate of the Conservative Party now tied to Gareth and his team’s performance?

Senior political reporter @joncraig

Wednesday, May 22, 2024, 9:

In 1997, the Labour Party campaigned with the optimistic slogan "Things Can Only Get Better," which preceded Tony Blair's overwhelming victory in the general election.

In 2023, Rishi Sunak seems to have determined that postponing an election until fall won't improve the situation for the Conservative Party.

The prime minister's quick move to hold elections on July 4 indicates that a leader known for his careful approach and focus on detailed data is surprisingly willing to take risks.

Initiating a general election while his party lags behind Labour by 20 points in the Sky News poll of polls could be seen as bold, but potentially imprudent.

Should he succeed, it would mark the Conservative Party's most significant electoral victory in the face of adversity since John Major secured a majority of 21 seats in 1992.

Mr. Sunak and Mr. Major share some similarities. Both held the position of Chancellor of the Exchequer prior to assuming the role of Prime Minister, and both have faced accusations from their critics of being somewhat unexciting.

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By choosing a summer instead of a fall election, the typically reserved Mr. Sunak is taking risks in several key areas: primarily the economy, immigration, and his "stop the boats" policy regarding Rwanda.

During the Prime Minister's Questions session held a few hours before Mr. Sunak's unexpected declaration, he assured members of parliament that inflation had returned to standard levels and that their strategy was proving effective.

Certainly, to some extent. Indeed, inflation has reached its lowest rate in almost three years. However, the decrease from 3.2% to 2.3% did not meet the government's expectations.

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A reduction in interest rates in June now seems less probable. Additionally, what became of Mr. Sunak's promise to reduce income tax from 20p to 19p in the pound before the general election? It appears to have disappeared.

Following his March Budget announcement, a confident Chancellor Jeremy Hunt spoke to Sky News, emphasizing that his 2p reduction in national insurance was certainly not a final, desperate measure ahead of the upcoming election.

As Mr. Hunt appeared to prefer, the prospect of a general election in October or November seemed probable, leading to forecasts of a supplementary budget in September that would include the anticipated reduction in income tax.

Choosing July 4th as the election date, the most promising offer the Conservatives can make under Mr. Sunak's rapid campaign is the possibility of tax reductions post-election, provided he returns to Downing Street. However, these promises have been made previously.

Regarding migration, the situation presents both positives and negatives. This year, close to 10,000 migrants have made the journey across the Channel in small boats, setting a new record. Typically, these numbers increase as the summer weather improves.

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Up to this point, the possibility of being deported to Rwanda has not served as the effective deterrent that the government anticipated. However, this may shift once the planned deportations actually begin next month, potentially marking a pivotal moment.

In a recent quick poll, there's encouraging news for Mr. Sunak as it shows that while Labour is prepared for an election, Reform UK is significantly unprepared. This readiness disparity likely influenced the Prime Minister's decision to call for an early election.

The most recent general election that took place in July occurred in 1945, specifically on the 5th of that month, when the Labour Party, led by Clement Attlee—who had served as deputy Prime Minister in the wartime coalition government—overcame Winston Churchill, securing a majority of 147 seats.

Margaret Thatcher preferred holding elections in June, choosing June 9 in 1983, where she secured a 144-seat majority, and June 11 in 1987, when she achieved a majority of 102 seats over Neil Kinnock's Labour Party.

Is holding a general election in the peak of summer advisable? In Scotland, there might be objections since 4 July coincides with their school break, which starts on 28 June and extends until 16 August.

Turning to the sports agenda, the highlight of this summer's events is the European Championship, where Gareth Southgate's England squad is considered a top competitor. Additionally, 4 July marks the beginning of the first week of Wimbledon.

The European Championship kicks off on June 14. Should England, or potentially Scotland, advance to the knockout stages, they would play in the round of 16, scheduled from June 29 to July 2, with the quarter-finals following on July 5 and 6.

Is coverage of the general election vying for attention against football fever? Does Mr. Sunak prefer reduced coverage of the election? Or are the Tories pinning their electoral prospects on Gareth and his team?

Drawing on historical examples, soccer enthusiast Mr. Sunak is likely wishing for Harry Kane and his teammates' success in reaching the Euros final to generate a wave of national enthusiasm that could boost his chances in the upcoming elections.

Political legend holds that Harold Wilson attributed his loss to Edward Heath in the 1970 general election to England's World Cup quarter-final loss to West Germany, which occurred just four days earlier.

It seems that Mr. Sunak isn't convinced that the situation for the Conservatives will improve from July to the fall. However, he is likely counting on England's football team to boost his fortunes by July 4.

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