Shifting Tides: MRP Poll Reveals Dramatic Tory Decline in Former Strongholds as Labour Eyes Historic Victory

According to a recent MRP poll by Sky News and YouGov, Conservative backing has significantly declined in regions that were strongholds for the party during Boris Johnson's 2019 landslide victory. The survey indicates that areas which strongly supported the Tories are now shifting their allegiance, with Labour potentially reversing a 43-point lead in Cannock Chase.

Authored by Professor Will Jennings, Election Analyst for Sky News

Monday, June 3, 2024, at 8

According to the latest YouGov/MRP survey conducted for Sky News, the trend observed over the past year and a half continues, indicating a significant loss for the Conservative government. The data suggests they are likely to lose almost two-thirds of their parliamentary seats.

According to this survey, the Labour Party leads with 43% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Party at 25%. The Liberal Democrats are at 11%, and Reform UK holds 10%, figures that align closely with the Sky News poll tracker.

Like all surveys, these figures come with a degree of uncertainty. YouGov predicts that Labour's seat count could range from 393 to 445, while the Conservatives may secure between 119 and 160 seats.

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The forecast suggests a win of 422 to 140 seats, surpassing the sweeping victory Tony Blair achieved in 1997 and potentially being the biggest majority a government has seen since 1935.

This would mark a significant and conclusive shift away from 14 years of Conservative leadership, an era predominantly shaped by the decision to leave the European Union.

The electoral forecast in Scotland shows significant variability, with YouGov indicating that the SNP may secure anywhere from 6 to 35 seats.

This contributes significantly to the unpredictability seen in the main forecasts, stemming from numerous closely contested races in the northern regions.

If Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party achieves a significant win, it will be bolstered by triumphs in tightly contested Scottish constituencies.

The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) survey offers key insights into the potential voting trends for July 4th.

The data indicates that the areas which contributed significantly to the Conservative Party's major win with Boris Johnson in 2019 are now shifting their allegiance away from the party.

What does MRP poll stand for?

As we approach the general election scheduled for July 4, you'll likely hear the term MRP frequently mentioned.

An MRP survey, an acronym for multilevel regression and post-stratification, often garners interest from analysts due to its extensive data collection, incorporating both a substantial number of responses and additional details such as geographic areas.

MRP surveys begin by querying a broad and diverse group of individuals about their voting intentions. The responses from these varied demographic groups are then merged with demographic data from various electoral districts. This process enables pollsters to predict voting outcomes in each district nationwide, including in areas where only a handful of respondents, or none at all, were directly surveyed.

This can be segmented into more specific categories to analyze the voting intentions of individuals in various regions. Instead of broadly assuming uniform behavior across different districts, this approach recognizes that each district has unique dynamics and local factors can influence the electoral outcomes.

MRP analysis does not take into consideration highly localized variables, such as the shutdown of a significant local institution like a hospital or a major employer, or any controversies surrounding a specific candidate within a constituency.

This approach is based heavily on conjecture and approximations, with several contests remaining highly uncertain. It merely provides a momentary glimpse into the electorate's preferences, which are subject to change throughout the campaign period. Nonetheless, it offers a more detailed prediction of the overall election outcome compared to other, more broad-based surveys.

Significant declines in support for the Conservative Party are anticipated in areas where they secured more than 60% of the vote in 2019, including constituencies like Castle Point and Great Yarmouth.

Labour is forecasted to overcome a Conservative lead of 43 points in Cannock Chase, which would be the largest such turnaround.

Labour is predicted to capture constituencies including North West Norfolk, which the party last secured in 1997, as well as Chatham and Aylesford, and Basildon and Billericay, indicating a significant penetration into traditional Conservative territories.

The trend of declining support for the Conservatives is 'proportional,' indicating that their backing has decreased the most in regions where it was once strongest. This shift makes several districts competitive, where before, it would have been unthinkable for the party to face defeat.

This trend reveals that the decline in Conservative backing is particularly pronounced in constituencies that favored Brexit in 2016, have an older population, are less racially diverse, and have a higher proportion of working-class employment.

The shift in the Labour Party's electoral support is not heavily influenced by Brexit; it is experiencing increases in a majority of constituities, with slightly higher increments in districts that favored leaving the EU.

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Significantly, there has been an increase in support for the Labour Party in areas where they secured between 20% and 35% of the vote in the 2019 elections. Should this trend continue into the upcoming election, it could lead to a more effective distribution of votes for the party, potentially resulting in Labour winning additional seats by narrow margins.

Interestingly, the average increase in the Liberal Democrat vote is highest in regions that favored Brexit in 2016. This trend partly stems from the party's strong presence in Southern England and the demographics it appeals to, typically performing well in areas with older, more affluent, and less ethnically diverse populations.

The most significant gains in the party's voting numbers occurred in areas that exhibited moderate levels of Brexit support, specifically in constituencies where the Leave vote ranged from 40% to 60%.

This indicates that the Liberal Democrats are advancing in key constituencies that aren't characterized by their Brexit stance, representing a notable shift from the situation in 2019.

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