Shifting Sands: Comparing the Electoral Foundations of Starmer’s Potential 2024 Victory to Blair’s 1997 Landslide

Comparing Starmer's Current Backing with Blair's 1997 Overwhelming Victory

Various factors such as socioeconomic status, educational background, health, and geographical location influence the voting patterns of different demographic groups. Should Labour win in 2024, the basis for their success would likely differ significantly from the one that propelled Tony Blair to a sweeping victory in 1997.

Authored by Professor Will Jennings, Sky News elections analyst, and Dr. Jamie Furlong from the University of Westminster.

Tuesday, July 2, 2024 02:24

In December 2019, Boris Johnson spearheaded a remarkable triumph for the Conservative Party, fundamentally altering the landscape of UK politics by securing victories in traditionally Labour-dominated regions of northern England and the midlands.

According to survey results, Keir Starmer's Labour Party appears set to deliver a significant blow to Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party.

The Labour Party is poised to recapture numerous constituaries in the post-industrial regions of northern England, while also making significant inroads into traditionally middle-class Conservative strongholds, echoing aspects of the sweeping victory achieved by Tony Blair.

Many of the constituencies captured in 1997 could potentially swing back to Labour, though the specific areas of support might shift somewhat.

An examination of the voting patterns in general elections from 1979 to 2019 reveals the typical regions that have predominantly supported either the Labour or Conservative parties.

We can also utilize forecasts from YouGov's latest MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey for Sky News to anticipate the outcomes for July 4th.

The ongoing decrease in class-based voting

First, we'll examine how the shifting employment numbers in working-class roles within a constituency influence voting patterns for the Labour and Conservative parties.

In 1979, constituencies with a higher number of individuals employed in manual and semi-skilled positions tended to show stronger support for the Labour Party and weaker support for the Conservative Party.

In 1997, the connection still existed but was less strong. By 2019, there was a noticeable shift where areas with larger blue-collar workforces tended to show increased support for the Conservative party.

The forecasts from the MRP indicate that the upcoming 2024 election might experience a modest shift back towards earlier voting trends based on social class, but it is doubtful that it will fully revert to the distinct class-based voting patterns seen in 1997.

The restructuring of the gap in education

In the elections of 1979 and to a lesser degree in 1997, areas with a lower percentage of university graduates predominantly supported the Labour Party. Conversely, regions with a higher concentration of degree-educated individuals typically showed stronger support for the Conservative Party, which was often seen as the choice of the professional middle classes.

Over the past four decades, there has been a consistent shift in voting trends linked to educational attainment. Specifically, the Labour Party has increasingly gained support in regions with higher numbers of university-educated individuals, whereas the Conservative Party's performance has generally declined in these areas.

Now, there is no statistically significant difference between the parties.

Labour enjoys strong backing in economically disadvantaged regions.

Based on various metrics, the geographical distribution of the Labour vote has remained relatively consistent for the past forty years.

The degree of socio-economic hardship, indicated by the number of individuals who report poor health, consistently shows a strong correlation with increased support for the Labour Party in a constituency.

The forecast for 2024 suggests that while the current trend may not dramatically change, the connection could be showing signs of a slight decrease in strength.

In comparison to the constituencies secured by Tony Blair in 1997, the pattern of Labour's electoral support on July 4th is expected to be stronger in regions with a higher number of university graduates and weaker in districts with a predominately working-class voter base. However, the party is anticipated to perform comparably well in regions marked by significant socio-economic hardship.

Emerging Heartlands?

How could the political landscape appear once the results are finalized on the morning of July 5th?

A method to analyze the geographic distribution of party support in 1997 and 2024 is by examining the groupings of electoral districts where parties perform above or below expectations, considering their socioeconomic attributes.

Our attention is on England and Wales, given that the SNP's surge has significantly altered the political landscape in Scotland.

In the diagrams, districts are colored red to indicate areas where the Labour Party has performed above expectations, and colored dark blue in regions where the party's voting results have fallen short of anticipated levels.

The 1993 map illustrates that during that election year, Labour surpassed anticipated outcomes in numerous coal-mining areas of South Yorkshire, which are generally characterized by their historical industrial communities, consisting mainly of older, white, working-class residents.

By 2024, the group of districts where Labour typically outperformed expectations had vanished.

Conversely, Labour's unexpected success has spread beyond Merseyside, reaching into areas of Cheshire and Derbyshire, and notably across extensive regions of the rural far north of England.

Numerous electoral districts are comparatively affluent when contrasted with areas that previously relied on coal mining.

This aligns with predictions indicating potential, though unexpected, victories for the Labour Party in the 2024 elections in areas like Hexham in Northumberland or Tatton in Cheshire.

How does this impact what comes next?

Should the Labour Party reclaim a significant number of constituencies in the North and the Midlands this Thursday, it is expected to spark considerable discussion on whether they have successfully reconstructed the so-called Red Wall.

Regaining control in constituencies such as Bishop Auckland, Stoke-on-Trent, Grimsby, Bolsover, and Rother Valley will undoubtedly reaffirm the party's strong presence throughout the region.

Nonetheless, the Red Wall could now present a significantly altered demographic compared to what the party represented back in 1997.

Historically, Labour enjoyed its largest vote margins in the old coal-mining and manufacturing centers. Tony Blair once secured a commanding 53-point lead in Sedgefield. By 2024, these margins are expected to shrink, with Labour achieving more significant victories in the larger northern cities.

Simultaneously, the party is expected to strengthen its base in regions populated predominantly by young graduates and professionals – groups that, historically in 1979, tended to support the Conservative party.

The process of reconfiguring the electoral boundaries in England and Wales is still ongoing.

"England and Wales' Shifting Electoral Landscape" authored by Jamie Furlong and Will Jennings, has been released by Oxford University Press.

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