Historic Landslide Looms: Labour Set for Largest Majority in a Century, Tories Face Catastrophic Losses

General Election 2024: Major losses for Conservatives with 12 ministers in jeopardy, according to YouGov survey

The first electoral forecast from YouGov since the call for elections suggests Sir Keir Starmer may secure the largest victory margin in a century, unmatched since Stanley Baldwin's election triumph.

Authored by Sam Coates, associate political editor and Joely Santa Cruz, data reporter

Monday, June 3, 2024, 8:

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The Labour Party might be heading towards a significant electoral victory, potentially securing a majority of 194 seats according to a YouGov survey.

This would represent the largest seat majority any party has achieved since Stanley Baldwin secured a 208-seat majority in the 1924 elections.

Sky News has teamed up with YouGov for this initiative and today we are releasing the first of three predictive polls, called MRPs, indicating that the UK may be on the verge of significant changes in its political map.

The forecast indicates an unprecedented victory for the Labour Party, surpassing even the significant win Tony Blair secured in 1997

The forecast indicates a significant defeat for the Conservatives across many regions, a substantial gain for the Liberal Democrats, and the Scottish National Party potentially losing more than half of its seats in Scotland, assuming the election took place today.

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According to the survey, Labour is projected to secure 422 seats, an increase of 222 seats from the 2019 election, considering the updated electoral map. This would represent the largest seat count in Labour's history and the most significant majority since World War II.

A 194-seat majority for Starmer would surpass the 179-seat majority Blair achieved in 1997 and Thatcher's 144-seat majority in 1983.

The Conservative Party would see their representation drop to 140 seats, a decrease of 232 seats, experiencing significant losses in London, the North East, the North West, and Wales. This would be their smallest number of seats since 1906, when they secured 131 seats. The party would primarily be left with strongholds in the South East, South West, and East Anglia.

This forecast suggests the Conservatives will win far fewer seats than their historical post-war low of 165 seats, achieved in 1997.

According to this forecast, the Liberal Democrats are expected to secure 48 seats, an increase of 40 from the 2019 results, substantially exceeding the expectations of Lib Dem pollsters from the previous year. This surge would not set new records but would restore the party to its former levels of achievement seen during the leadership of Lord Ashdown, who led the party to 46 seats in 1997, and Charles Kennedy, under whom they won 62 seats.

In this forecast, the SNP is projected to secure 17 out of 57 Scottish seats, marking a decline of 31 seats from the hypothetical results of 2019. This represents the lowest tally for the nationalist party in the current decade, a significant drop from their high of 56 out of 59 seats in 2015.

YouGov's survey forecast utilizes responses from 53,334 individuals in England and Wales, and 5,541 in Scotland, gathered from May 24 to June 1.

This forecast, estimating the voting patterns across various districts, suggests these percentages of votes: Conservatives at 24.5%, Labour at 42.9%, Liberal Democrats at 10.6%, Reform UK at 10.1%, Green Party at 6.7%, Scottish National Party at 2.8%, Plaid Cymru at 0.7%, and other parties collectively at 1.7%.

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Under this scenario, the extent of the defeat could jeopardize the seats of several prominent Conservative cabinet members in the upcoming election.

According to forecasts, prominent cabinet members including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Attorney General Victoria Prentis, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk, Welsh Secretary David TC Davies, and Armed Forces Minister Johnny Mercer are all expected to be unseated in the upcoming election.

Out of the 26 cabinet members seeking re-election, twelve are facing uncertain prospects in their races.

Furthermore, the forecast indicates that the careers of Steve Baker, the Northern Irish Minister, Bim Afolami, the Economic Secretary to the Treasury, and Lee Rowley, the Housing Minister, are all uncertain.

Twenty-two out of the 45 government ministers who have confirmed their candidacy are facing risks.

According to projections by YouGov, the position of Labour's shadow culture secretary, Thangham Debonnaire, is uncertain as she contends with the Green Party in her Bristol Central constituency, which is reportedly a closely contested seat.

What does MRP poll stand for?

As we approach the general election scheduled for July 4th, you'll likely hear the term MRP frequently.

An MRP survey, short for multilevel regression and post-stratification, is a polling method that generates interest among analysts due to its comprehensive approach, utilizing a substantial dataset that includes a large number of respondents and contextual details such as geographic data.

MRP surveys begin by querying a broad, representative group of individuals about their voting intentions. They subsequently integrate these responses with demographic data from various electoral districts. This process enables pollsters to predict voting outcomes in each district nationwide, including those where only a handful of respondents, or none at all, might have been directly surveyed.

This can subsequently be segmented into finer categories to analyze the voting intentions of residents across various regions. This approach avoids the broad generalizations that assume uniform behavior across all electoral districts, acknowledging instead that each district presents a unique contest influenced by local dynamics and issues.

MRP struggles to incorporate highly localized variables, such as the shutdown of a major hospital or business in a district, or controversy surrounding a specific candidate.

This process is based heavily on conjecture and approximations, and certain contests remain too uncertain to predict confidently. It merely offers a momentary glimpse into public sentiment, which can fluctaneously shift during an election period. Nonetheless, it provides a more detailed perspective on potential general election outcomes compared to broader, less specific polling data.

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