Electoral Missteps: How Leader Visits Are Failing to Boost Poll Numbers in Key Seats

Monitoring the election trail: Constituencies showing declining poll results despite visits from party heads

Sky News is following the destinations that party leaders choose to visit during the election period, analyzing these patterns to understand the strategies behind each party's campaign efforts.

By Dr. Hannah Bunting, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

Saturday, June 22, 2024, 12:

Over a month into the election campaign, it's clear how the various political groups are performing in their key targeted constituaries, whether they are making gains or facing setbacks.

Explore this week's travels on our dynamic map below.

This election is taking place under revised voting districts, with numerous areas experiencing substantial alterations since 2019.

In this report, we utilize theoretical outcomes derived from the work of Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, respected honorary professors at the University of Exeter. They have provided estimations of how the 2019 election results might have looked under the newly proposed electoral boundaries.

Hesitating?

It's evident that Rishi Sunak's campaign is facing challenges. When the Prime Minister unexpectedly announced elections on July 4, the Conservatives were already trailing in the polls, and there was an expectation that this gap would close as the election approached.

The actual situation has diverged from expectations. Although the Conservative Party remains 20 points behind, both major parties have lost support to the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK, a situation that poses a greater problem for the Conservatives than for Labour.

In contrast to last week's depiction of Sunak waging a solitary fight, this week brought whispers of him possibly stepping back from the campaign trail. His number of campaign stops dropped to just six this week, continuing a noticeable downward trend as the campaign moves forward.

Amid a decrease in campaign activity, Sunak still leads in the number of constituencies visited, having stopped in 41 seats since the campaign began, while both Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer and the Liberal Democrats’ Sir Ed Davey have each visited 31.

His fortunes took another hit with the release of the latest Sky/YouGov MRP poll on Wednesday evening.

The latest survey, which ran from June 11 to June 18, shows a decline in the Conservative Party's prospects compared to a previous poll held from May 24 to June 1. Initially, when the election was called, their expected number of seats was 140, but this has now decreased to 108.

Is the assistance proving beneficial?

We can evaluate the shift in party performance from one poll to the next to determine if the situation is getting better or deteriorating for leaders in the regions they have toured.

These forecasts stem from the current voting preferences expressed by participants during the polling period. The predictions regarding who will secure seats are categorized from the most uncertain to the most certain, labeled as: "tossup" (indicating a very close race), "lean", "likely", or "safe".

Since the beginning of his campaign, Sunak has visited 12 constituencies that are now less favorable for the Conservatives compared to earlier in the election period.

Certainly, the timing of the prime minister's visit may not be the sole cause, and some journeys occurred post-poll, yet this hardly offers any solace to the struggling campaign team.

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Liberal Democrat Challenge

A specific challenge facing the Conservatives is the strategic effectiveness of the Liberal Democrats' vote in the upcoming election, as they are gaining support in key areas that could be detrimental to the Tories.

With an anticipated national vote share of 11.6%, matching their performance from 2019, projections show a significant increase in their parliamentary representation, with an expected 67 seats. This figure is over six times the seats they effectively secured in 2019 and marks their highest tally since the Liberal Democrats were established in 1988. All the projected gains they might achieve outside of Scotland would come at the cost of Conservative seats.

In significant electoral areas contested between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats where Sunak campaigned, the Liberal Democrats have gained ground in eight such locations. For example, in Wokingham, which Sunak visited in the second week and Liberal Democrat leader Davey visited in the third week, the Conservative majority of 23.2% is showing signs of shifting toward the Liberal Democrats.

In the 23 constituencies the prime minister toured, the outlook remains largely unchanged. However, his party is anticipated to lose 18 of these seats. Among them is North Devon, a location he stopped by on Tuesday. Here, the Liberal Democrats require a swing of 13.3 points to wrest control from the Conservatives, a shift that is predicted to happen.

Conservative advances

In four of his earlier visits, Rishi Sunak saw positive changes, especially during his trips to areas in Yorkshire where he is well-known. His own constituency, Richmond & Northallerton, which he has visited on two occasions, has seen its status shift from a "lean" Conservative stronghold to a "likely" stronghold. Additionally, the electoral outlook in Thirsk & Malton has moved from being a "toss-up" — indicating a highly competitive race — to a "lean" Conservative hold.

His attention to the region seems to be yielding benefits.

Labour's projected vote share has dipped to 39%, indicating a decline in performance in seven constituencies visited by Starmer. Derby South's classification has shifted from a "safe" to a "likely" hold due to a surge in the Reform Party's polling numbers, which has cut into Labour's lead. Meanwhile, the highly competitive seat of Finchley & Golders Green in London is showing a slight tilt towards the Conservatives.

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In the 22 constituencies that Starmer has visited, Labour continues to be the leading contender for victory, with no alterations in their forecasted gains. These include all but one seat, Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West, which they aim to win over from the SNP; the rest are presently under Conservative control.

Labour's prospects improved in two constituencies following visits from Starmer. The Worthing East & Shoreham seat, which Starmer toured early in the campaign, has been reclassified from a "likely" to a "safe" pickup from the Conservatives. Similarly, the Nuneaton seat in the West Midlands has been upgraded from a "lean" to a "likely" gain after his visit on June 10, just prior to the latest poll.

Davey's performance evaluation shines brightly, as in 18 out of the 31 constituencies he visited, the Liberal Democrats have seen improved polling results.

Carshalton & Wallington, a closely contested London constituency where the Liberal Democrats narrowly trailed the Conservatives by only 1.3% in the 2019 elections, is now considered a secure win for the Lib Dems, improving from a previous "lean" prediction. Early in the first week of campaigning, Sunak made his way to the district, followed by a visit from Davey this week.

The Farage Influence

Recent weeks have seen significant gains in voter support for Reform, propelled by Nigel Farage's dramatic comeback as the party's leader.

Reform's projected rise in voter support to 15.4% positions them as the third most popular party nationally, surpassing the Lib Dems. However, while this growth seems to primarily detract from the Tories, it does not translate as effectively into gaining seats for Reform, with only five seats currently projected for them.

Sunak and Starmer have not made trips to any of the constituencies where Reform is expected to make wins, including Clacton, where projections suggest Nigel Farage is likely to defeat the existing 56.31% majority held by the Conservatives.

If Farage succeeds in winning over the electorate in Clacton, it would mark his first victory after seven unsuccessful attempts. For over three decades, he has contested in seven different parliamentary seats without success.

Reform unveiled their alternative to a manifesto on Monday from Merthyr Tydfil in South Wales, where Farage stated that the location was selected "to demonstrate to everyone the consequences of Labour governance on a country."

In 2019, they secured a third-place finish, but the latest MRP poll suggests they are set to surpass the Conservatives and claim the second spot, trailing behind Labour.

While unveiling the Welsh Conservative manifesto in North Clwyd on Friday, Sunak criticized Welsh Labour, stating that although Wales is a wonderful nation, it has been failed by Labour leadership.

Struggle for the South West

This week, attention has surged in the South West. Historically a stronghold for the Liberal Democrats, particularly during their peak in 2005, they had retained just one seat in the region by 2017, with Bath being the sole constituency they continue to hold.

The Liberal Democrats are aiming to gain significant ground in this region, as evidenced by the frequency of their visits.

This week, the area has seen significant political activity, with each of the three main party leaders making two visits apiece as they campaign for votes. Rishi Sunak made a stop in Torridge & Tavistock, a stronghold where the Conservatives are anticipated to maintain their lead against the Liberal Democrats, given their substantial 41.9% majority.

On Monday, Starmer made an uncommon visit to the defensive Labour stronghold of Bristol North West, whereas Davey was in Yeovil, a location where his party requires a 13.5 point swing to overcome the Conservative contender.

The prime minister has toured 16% of the electoral districts in the South West, surpassing the visitation rate of other political leaders in any region. Meanwhile, Davey has visited 12% of the constituencies in this area and 11% in the South East, emphasizing the Liberal Democrats' focus on the southern regions.

In an effort to connect with a wider range of voters, Starmer has expanded his campaign efforts across various regions. His most concentrated visits have been in Greater London, where he has campaigned in 7% of the seats, with Wales closely behind at 6%.

Up to now, leaders from the major political parties—Sunak, Starmer, and Davey—have made campaign stops in 31% of the electoral districts in the South West. In contrast, the North West has seen the least attention from these leaders among English regions, with visits to only 11% of the constituencies. Nonetheless, the parties are ensuring their presence in the North West by dispatching other key figures, including Labour's deputy leader Angela Rayner. In Scotland, the focus has shifted more towards local branch leaders of the respective parties rather than the national leaders themselves.

Dr. Hannah Bunting serves as an elections analyst for Sky News and is also the co-director of The Elections Centre at the University of Exeter.

The Data and Forensic Unit at Sky News is composed of versatile professionals committed to delivering clear and open journalism. We collect, scrutinize, and illustrate data to craft stories based on solid data evidence. Our approach merges conventional journalistic techniques with sophisticated analysis of satellite imagery, social media, and various publicly available data sources. By employing multimedia storytelling, we strive to enhance understanding of global events and demonstrate the processes behind our journalistic endeavors.

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