2024 MotoGP Title Race: Jorge Martin Surges Ahead Amidst Marquez and Bastianini Dramas

Is the 2024 MotoGP Championship now a foregone conclusion?

Setbacks for Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini during the Indonesian Grand Prix have effectively ended their title hopes. However, Jorge Martin's recent showing indicates that he might have gained an edge over Francesco Bagnaia in the 2024 MotoGP title chase.

Let's address the disappointing aspect of this piece right away. This season's title race isn't one for the history books. In the 2024 season, the top two riders, Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia, have shown themselves to be a class apart. However, both have squandered significant points whenever either of them seemed to gain a bit of momentum.

Heading into the Indonesian Grand Prix, Bagnaia already had seven DNFs to his name. Throughout the weekend, his performance was generally lackluster. Despite winning the sprint, there were no indications from Friday onward that he would be a contender for the victory, and this ultimately played out as expected.

However, with Bagnaia struggling and recovering from his Emilia Romagna GP failure to finish, Martin had a prime chance to capitalize. Unfortunately, his potential to deal a significant blow was thwarted by an avoidable fall during the sprint race while he was in the lead. When Martin crashed, he was already ahead by four-tenths of a second, and it looked like he was on track to dominate the race.

The rider remains unable to account for his crash at Turn 16, suggesting an issue with the track surface in that area. Throughout the weekend, riders had noted a lack of traction at that corner, so Martin's theories seem plausible. Despite a fall there during FP2, he still secured pole position and set a new lap record in qualifying without any issues.

However, Bagnaia, who was trailing him, noticed his aggressive approach into the corner. This observation supports the argument that Martin exceeded his limits, likely due to a heavier fuel load than during qualifying and tyres that were not yet warmed up. Additionally, the more grippier 2024 rear tyres may have contributed to the front end losing control, leading to his fall.

Nevertheless, Martin ended up with no points from a race he was expected to win, and handed Bagnaia a victory that reduced his championship lead to 12 points.

This left him haunted by "ghosts on my mind" throughout a grand prix he dominated from pole position to the checkered flag, especially at Turns 16 and 11, where he had previously crashed while leading in 2023. However, the Pramac rider demonstrated a clever strategy and true mental toughness as he inches nearer to his ultimate objective.

"After completing 13 laps, I started having doubts in my mind at corner 11, and this continued happening at corner 16 on every lap," he explained. "I was making sure to be extra cautious. There was a lot of side wind in that section which made it difficult to turn, almost like I was on a scooter. I was aware that I was losing significant time to Acosta in that segment, but my plan was to compensate by pushing harder in other sections. So, I focused on being very cautious at the beginning of the race and then gradually tried to increase my pace with each lap."

The danger posed by Pedro Acosta was a genuine concern for Martin. By lap 17 out of 27, the rookie from Tech3 GASGAS was trailing him by just 0.6 seconds. In terms of average speed, however, Martin managed to maintain just enough of a lead to keep Acosta's threat at bay. Martin's average lap time was 1 minute 31.058 seconds compared to Acosta's 1 minute 31.168 seconds, which proved crucial. Additionally, Martin's impressive lap time of 1 minute 30.774 seconds on lap 24 demonstrated his speed even with worn tires.

Although the final recorded difference was 1.4 seconds between Acosta and Martin at the finish line, the distance had been as much as 2.4 seconds on lap 25. The narrowing of the gap was due to Martin easing up on the last lap to secure his first grand prix victory since the French GP.

As expected from his performance on Friday, chief title contender Bagnaia struggled to match Martin's pace due to issues with the medium rear race tire. Although Bagnaia showed decent speed, a poor start—something he attributes to a Ducati issue—left him stuck in the fourth position where he had qualified. It took approximately six laps for his medium rear tire to reach optimal temperature, causing significant setbacks. During this period, Bagnaia was 0.550 seconds slower than Martin, who was leading the race.

Once the tire was warmed up, Bagnaia achieved a fastest lap of 1 minute 30.542 seconds, whereas Martin's quickest time was 1 minute 30.729 seconds. Both riders were still clocking times in the 1 minute 30.7 seconds range as late as lap 24. However, it was the initial laps that proved crucial, and Bagnaia has a hypothesis to explain this.

He clarified that his slow start was due to the fact that when leading with no one ahead, he could make up for the lack of rear grip by braking more effectively, which gave him an advantage. However, when trailing other riders, braking hard and pushing to the limit wasn't possible, and the rear tire might not be prepared. He speculated that this issue might be specific to the GP24 when riding in traffic. Nonetheless, after five or six laps, he regained his usual speed and felt strong, although he acknowledged missing out on the initial laps.

The difference between the two competitors is currently 21 points. While this might not seem significant with five races remaining, Bagnaia has not led the championship since the Austrian Grand Prix, where he last secured a victory. Although the points gap has occasionally decreased, Bagnaia has never appeared to be in command.

Indeed, the fact that Martin has seven DNFs this year compared to Bagnaia’s four non-scores supports this notion. Examining the points from the past eight rounds, Martin has accumulated 195 points while Bagnaia has 192. It’s a tight race, but Martin’s consistent performance is keeping him on track. The race in Indonesia appeared to be a significant milestone for the Pramac rider, despite his unnecessary fall during the sprint.

Did Bastianini hold the potential to alter the outcome of the race?

A significant point of uncertainty surrounding the Indonesian Grand Prix is Enea Bastianini's role. During Friday's practice sessions, the Ducati rider matched Martin's race pace, positioning both as leading contenders for the win.

After securing the second position in the sprint, Bastianini demonstrated superior performance compared to his fellow factory team Ducati rider during the main race. However, he also encountered early-race difficulties similar to those faced by Bagnaia. Bastianini began the race strongly, advancing from fifth to second place, only to drop back to fifth by the sixth lap.

During the initial six laps, Bastianini managed to maintain a faster pace on the warming medium rear tire compared to Bagnaia. However, his average speed was still approximately 0.460 seconds slower than Martin's. When he finally found his rhythm, Bastianini's performance was remarkable.

He completed nine laps with times of 1 minute and 30 seconds (while Martin completed eight) between laps 9 and 14, and then again from laps 18 to 20. On lap 20, he recorded the quickest lap of the race with a time of 1 minute and 30.539 seconds. His average speed was approximately 1 minute and 31.182 seconds per lap, which was over a tenth of a second slower than Martin's pace as Martin led the race.

With eight laps remaining, Martin held a 2.5-second lead, while Acosta was 1.5 seconds in front of Bastianini, who was in second place. Bastianini's push was hindered by a previous duel with Pramac's Franco Morbidelli for third place. The initial overtake attempt occurred at Turn 2 on lap 16, but it was unsuccessful. Bastianini managed to complete the pass on the next lap. However, on that 16th lap, Bastianini lost 0.7 seconds compared to the previous lap, and his time loss was 0.440 seconds when he eventually overtook Morbidelli.

On lap 18, with no other cars around, he was instantly 0.8 seconds faster. It’s unclear how much this influenced his decision to push harder into Turn 1 on lap 21, where he ultimately crashed. However, the significant time lost while overtaking Morbidelli meant he was further behind the race leaders than he might have been otherwise.

In practical terms, Bastianini's speed was sufficient to catch up to Acosta, who had an average lap time of 1m31.168s, and he likely could have overtaken the KTM racer. When Bastianini crashed, he was lapping 0.433 seconds faster than Acosta with seven laps remaining.

However, overtaking Acosta in time to compete with Martin proved to be slightly beyond reach. Nonetheless, securing any podium finish for Bastianini would have resulted in Martin gaining three more points than Bagnaia.

Currently trailing Martin by 75 points, Bastianini admitted post-race that this was "one of the final opportunities" to seriously compete for the championship. Meanwhile, Marc Marquez, who is 78 points behind, has also effectively bowed out of the title race.

Marquez's race concluded on lap 12 when his Gresini Ducati experienced an engine malfunction. Despite an impressive comeback from 12th to 3rd in the sprint, bringing him nearer to Martin, his two crashes in Q2 left him with a significant challenge for the grand prix. Even without the engine issue, he was likely to finish fourth, with a slim chance of securing third if he could keep pace with Bagnaia's late-race speed.

Certainly, from a mathematical standpoint, both Bastianini and Marquez remain contenders. However, it is evident that Martin and Bagnaia are currently the main competitors, much like they were last year.

It seems that Martin might be in a position to lose it now, provided he can maintain the level of consistency he has demonstrated since the summer break, along with the control he exhibited during last Sunday’s Indonesian GP.

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