KTM’s Rising Threat: Can Ducati Hold Their Ground in the Japanese MotoGP?

Analysis of Lap Times: Assessing the KTM Challenge to Ducati's Dominance

During Friday's practice session for the Japanese MotoGP, KTM managed to surpass Ducati's speed.

As the MotoGP season approaches the conclusion of its first set of back-to-back races, leading up to the final event in Valencia, the series of races so far has not clarified a clear frontrunner for the championship title.

Jorge Martin enters the Japanese Grand Prix this weekend with a 21-point lead over Francesco Bagnaia. Both racers are currently viewed as the key contenders, especially after Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini suffered DNFs in Indonesia, leaving them over 70 points behind.

Marquez has declared the competition finished, but Bastianini is still holding onto the slim possibility of a mathematical chance. Throughout the initial 15 rounds of the 2024 season, though, it consistently seemed likely that Martin and Bagnaia would face off once more for the championship title.

At this point in the season last year, Martin was likely performing at his peak. However, it was also when significant mistakes overshadowed his impressive pace. On Thursday at Motegi, he disclosed the extent to which the 2023 championship contest had affected him.

"I get much better rest these days," he mentioned. "The previous season was quite challenging for me to handle. While the situation wasn't as intense in Japan, it was particularly difficult in Thailand, Malaysia, and also in Valencia."

Martin now has the upper hand in terms of experience. He mentioned that he believes he is mentally tougher and a "more complete" rider, even if he isn't as quick as he was the previous year.

Will Ducati reign supreme once more?

An absolute masterpiece 🎨🇯🇵 @marcmarquez93 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/R8R4lMEj87— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 4, 2024

An absolute masterpiece 🎨🇯🇵 @marcmarquez93 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/R8R4lMEj87

On Friday at Motegi, that recently acquired strength faced a challenge, and it will serve as the benchmark for the Spanish competitor as the remainder of the Japanese Grand Prix weekend progresses.

On Friday, Martin consistently appeared near the top of the leaderboard during both practice sessions. Riding for Pramac, he concluded the day in third place overall, clocking in at 1 minute 43.568 seconds. This time was merely 0.132 seconds behind the fastest lap set by Brad Binder on the official KTM team.

However, Martin was not content while riding his bicycle. In a later media interview, he described the day as "complicated," explaining that he faced challenges with the bike attempting to handle various tasks. Struggling with a lack of feedback from the front and aiming to enhance the braking system—an essential element for the stop-and-go characteristics of the Motegi track—a setup adjustment made in the afternoon ended up taking him further from his desired performance.

Moreover, he also experienced difficulty in maintaining a good grip on the rear tire during his extended pace run.

He completed 16 laps using a soft rear tire, which Michelin believes is a suitable choice for both the Grand Prix and the sprint race, assuming it stays dry. Analyzing an eight-lap segment with irrelevant and discarded times excluded, his average speed was approximately 1 minute and 44.755 seconds. This performance positions him as the quickest in terms of race pace, albeit by a narrow margin.

Certainly, a 24-lap grand prix presents a completely different challenge, and Martin is fully conscious of this. He acknowledged the necessity to "significantly improve" for the race on Sunday. This task could be further complicated if rain on Saturday removes the rubber laid down on the track on Friday.

Given Martin's strong performance lately, a dry race shouldn't be a concern for him. However, if it rains this weekend, the Pramac rider is also likely to perform well. At last year's rain-affected grand prix at Motegi, which was stopped early, Martin delivered an excellent performance.

Marc Marquez, who rides for Ducati, didn't seem pleased after Friday's sessions. During the second practice, Marquez, representing the Gresini team, appeared frustrated as his performance seemed disorganized. However, he managed to improve significantly in the last 10 minutes and came close to securing the fastest time. According to his crew chief, Frankie Carchedi, it was “one of the most challenging Fridays” of the season.

Marquez was reluctant to share details about his difficulties but mentioned that braking was a crucial aspect that needed enhancement. His schedule was so disjointed that he didn't engage in any significant extended runs. From a three-lap assessment using a soft rear tire, Marquez's current speed is 1 minute and 45.129 seconds.

At this point, it's difficult to determine Marquez's role, but given the advantages of the GP24 compared to the GP23 at Motegi, it's challenging to imagine a podium finish.

Enea Bastianini faced challenges during the day when a fall in the middle of Practice interrupted his session. This incident occurred because his foot became caught in the gear lever, causing him to shift up instead of down at Turn 13. He completed nine laps using a soft rear tire, averaging a lap time of 1 minute and 45.026 seconds. In contrast, his Ducati teammate Francesco Bagnaia had a vastly different experience, finishing Friday in high spirits.

Following the challenges he faced on Friday in Indonesia, which carried over into the grand prix and prevented him from competing against Martin, Bagnaia showed consistent speed. His attack lap, clocking in at 1m43.754s and placing him seventh, doesn't accurately reflect his performance due to an error he made. Without the mistake, his best potential lap time stands at 1m43.504s, and if the qualifying conditions are dry, he might be able to shave off a few more tenths.

Bagnaia completed 12 laps using the soft rear tire, maintaining an average speed of 1 minute and 44.773 seconds per lap. Despite his slightly slower average compared to Martin’s, Bagnaia considers himself to be the top contender at the moment. Importantly, the disparity is minimal and is overshadowed by the fact that the Pramac rider has not yet achieved consistent performance with his GP24 at Motegi.

Could KTM pose a significant challenge?

Brad Binder leads the way in practice at Motegi ⏱🇯🇵 It was an incredibly tight session 🤏 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/3JYgfa0A10— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 4, 2024

Brad Binder leads the way in practice at Motegi ⏱🇯🇵 It was an incredibly tight session 🤏 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/3JYgfa0A10

On Friday, the spotlight was on the KTMs, as Binder set the pace with a time of 1m43.436s, and Pedro Acosta secured the fourth position riding his Tech3 bike under the GASGAS brand.

In recent years, the Motegi track has proven favorable for KTM. Last year, Binder secured second place in the sprint race in Japan, and the previous year, he made it to the podium in the grand prix. The circuit's stop-and-go layout complements KTM's strong braking capabilities, robust engine performance, and its ability to navigate tight turns effectively.

Last weekend in Indonesia, Acosta showcased impressive performance. Opting for a new chassis that Binder chose not to use, Acosta secured the second spot in the qualifiers and maintained that position during the race, finishing a mere 1.4 seconds behind Martin. At one point during the race in Mandalika, Acosta narrowed the gap to just 0.6 seconds. However, it's important to note that Martin later extended his lead to 2.5 seconds before easing up on the final lap to ensure he clinched his first Sunday victory since the race at Le Mans.

Since the Aragon Grand Prix, Acosta has maintained impressive speed throughout the races. In the latter half of the season, he regained confidence after reverting to the settings that worked well for him early on. Additionally, the introduction of a new chassis has further enhanced his performance.

After Friday's practice, Bagnaia identified Martin and Acosta as the competitors nearest to him, but he thinks they are "one step behind."

Certainly, Acosta's performance is something Ducati should worry about. He completed 13 laps using the soft rear tire, maintaining an average time of 1 minute and 44.867 seconds over a span of seven laps. This pace positions him competitively close to Bagnaia and Martin.

Bagnaia didn't consider Binder in his assessment. Given that the South African rider's average speed was roughly 1m45.432s over a sample of five laps, this exclusion seems reasonable for this stage of the weekend.

On Friday at Motegi, Binder decided to stick with what he knows best instead of trying to make unnecessary changes, which definitely contributed to his impressive lap time. However, he did mention encountering a problem at the beginning of the second session, leaving some uncertainty about how this might have affected his overall race speed.

Acosta appears to be the Austrian manufacturer's top contender and Ducati's primary challenge once more.

With the championship competition still fierce, Martin's steady performance has placed him slightly ahead in the race, giving him a solid argument for being the frontrunner for the title as we approach the 16th of 20 rounds this season.

Feeling slightly below par on Friday for the first time in quite some time, main competitor Bagnaia seems to have started strong, and the challenge posed by Acosta and KTM from Indonesia remains as pressing as it was just recently. Consequently, the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix is poised to be potentially the most crucial weekend of the season for Martin, as he aims to definitively establish himself as the frontrunner for the championship title.

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