Kemi Badenoch Leads Suella Braverman in Early Tory Leadership Polls Amid Internal Party Tensions

A survey indicates Kemi Badenoch has twice as much support as Suella Braverman among members for the upcoming Conservative leadership race. Although the contest has not fully commenced, indications are that support for Suella Braverman is diminishing, while Kemi Badenoch strongly criticized Rishi Sunak during their initial shadow cabinet meeting.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2024, at 1

According to recent surveys, Kemi Badenoch holds a significant lead in the race to become the next Conservative Party leader, with double the backing from party members compared to her closest rival.

A study conducted by the Party Members Project, a joint initiative between Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, and executed by YouGov, polled 725 participants about their opinions.

After excluding the "none" and "don't know" answers, Ms. Badenoch was backed by 31% of the participants surveyed.

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Suella Braverman received 16% of the votes, closely followed by Tom Tugendhat with 15%.

There are indications that Ms. Braverman's backing among Conservative MPs is diminishing, whereas Ms. Badenoch reportedly criticized Rishi Sunak and his strategy for the upcoming general election during the initial meeting of the Conservative shadow cabinet.

The complete set of outcomes is presented below:

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Associated Subjects:

• Kemi Badenoch: 31%;

• Suella Braverman: 16%;

• Tom Tugendhat: 15%;

• Jeremy Hunt: 12%;

• James Cleverly: 10%;

• Robert Jenrick: 7%;

• Priti Patel: 6%;

• Victoria Atkins: 2%.

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Jeremy Hunt has made it clear that he will not be entering the contest.

Specific guidelines on the selection process for the upcoming party leader have not been determined, and the extent of the members' involvement remains uncertain.

With Bob Blackigan assuming the role of chair for the 1922 Committee of backbench MPs, the groundwork is now being laid for the process to officially start.

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Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary University of London notes that within the party, members who supported Brexit are twice as likely to favor Suella Braverman for the leadership role, with a ratio of 20 to 9, compared to those who supported remaining in the EU. Kemi Badenoch also garners more backing from Brexit supporters, though the margin — 33 to 28 — is somewhat narrower.

"Conversely, Tom Tugendhat appears much more favored among Remainers, with 18 in favor compared to 11."

Ms. Braverman garners greater backing from working-class Conservative members than from their middle-class counterparts, a trend that is reversed for Ms. Badenoch and Mr. Tugendhat.

Ms Badenoch and Ms Braverman are expected to draw support from previous backers of Liz Truss, whereas Mr Tugendhat is favored by individuals who supported Rishi Sunak as the ideal leader in 2022.

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In terms of age demographics, Ms. Braverman garners greater backing from those aged 50 and above, while Mr. Tugendhat has a solid base among those under 50, and Ms. Badenoch appeals to a broad range of age groups.

Remarkably, when Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are considered as choices, Boris Johnson outpaces Kemi Badenoch with a score of 20% to her 10%, and Nigel Farage ties with Jeremy Hunt, each receiving 10%.

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