Kemi Badenoch Leads in Tory Leadership Support, Doubling Suella Braverman’s Backing Among Party Members

Poll indicates Kemi Badenoch has twice as much support as Suella Braverman for next Conservative leader

Although the leadership race hasn’t officially started, there are indications that Suella Braverman’s support is diminishing, while Kemi Badenoch strongly criticized Rishi Sunak during their initial shadow cabinet meeting.

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Wednesday, July 10, 2024, 1:

According to recent polls, Kemi Badenoch has garnered double the backing of her nearest rival among Conservative Party members for the upcoming leadership position.

A study conducted by the Party Members Project, a collaboration between Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, utilized YouGov to poll 725 members on their opinions.

After excluding those who answered "none" or "don't know," Ms. Badenoch received backing from 31% of the participants surveyed.

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Suella Braverman garnered 16% of the support, closely followed by Tom Tugendhat with 15%.

Sources indicate that Ms. Braverman's backing among Conservative MPs is diminishing, and it is reported that Ms. Badenoch criticized Rishi Sunak and his strategy for the general election during the initial meeting of the Conservative shadow cabinet.

Here is the complete rundown of outcomes:

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Associated Subjects:

• Kemi Badenoch: 31%;

• Suella Braverman: 16%;

• Tom Tugendhat: 15%;

• Jeremy Hunt: 12%;

• James Cleverly: 10%;

• Robert Jenrick: 7%;

• Priti Patel: 6%;

• Victoria Atkins: 2%.

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Jeremy Hunt has made it clear that he will not be entering the contest.

The specific procedures for selecting the upcoming party leader have not been determined, and it remains uncertain what involvement the party members will have in this process.

Now that Bob Blackman has taken the helm of the 1922 Committee, comprised of backbench MPs, the groundwork is being laid for the proceedings to start in full swing.

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Professor Tim Bale from Queen Mary University of London notes that members who support leaving the EU are twice as likely to favor Suella Braverman for leadership, with a 20% to 9% split, compared to those who support remaining. Kemi Badenoch also sees higher support from the Leave camp, though the gap is narrower at 33% versus 28%.

"Conversely, Tom Tugendhat appears to be more favored by Remainers, with a count of 18 compared to 11."

Ms. Braverman enjoys greater backing from working-class Conservative members than from their middle-class counterparts, a contrast to Ms. Badenoch and Mr. Tugendhat, who are more favored by the middle-class.

Ms. Badenoch and Ms. Braverman are poised to garner the support of previous backers of Liz Truss, whereas Mr. Tugendhat is favored by individuals who previously saw Rishi Sunak as the ideal leader in 2022.

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In terms of age demographics, Ms. Braverman garners greater backing from individuals over 50, while Mr. Tugendhat is more popular among those under 50, and Ms. Badenoch appeals to a broad range of ages.

Remarkably, when Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are considered as choices, Boris Johnson outpaces Kemi Badenoch with a score of 20% compared to her 10%, and Nigel Farage ties with Jeremy Hunt, each receiving 10%.

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