UK Economy Faces Grim Forecast: CBI Highlights Business Woes Amid NIC Hike
The UK is on track for a dire economic scenario, according to the CBI, with companies anticipating a downturn in operations. The CBI pointed out in its growth survey that businesses attribute their bleak economic forecast to Rachel Reeves' choice to increase the national insurance contributions (NIC) paid by employers.
Monday, December 23, 2024, 06:
The UK is on a trajectory towards a highly unfavorable economic situation, with businesses anticipating a decline in activity at the beginning of the next year, as reported by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).
A recent survey on the growth indicator by a sector organization revealed that private sector companies are planning to decrease their hiring, lower their production levels, and anticipate an increase in prices during the initial quarter of 2025.
Many businesses attribute their gloomy prospects to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' move to increase the national insurance contributions (NIC) paid by employers, a change projected to generate approximately £25 billion annually.
The chancellor acknowledged that the budget decision might pose challenges for businesses, but she emphasized earlier this month that the government had pledged during the general election not to raise taxes on working individuals.
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Alpesh Paleja, acting as the interim deputy chief economist for the CBI, commented, "Our recent surveys offer little in the way of holiday optimism, indicating that the economy is approaching a particularly dire situation where companies anticipate cuts in both production and employment, alongside increasingly strong expectations for rising prices."
"Companies have noted that the policies introduced in the recent budget, especially the increase in employer National Insurance Contributions, are worsening the situation in an already lukewarm demand landscape."
He mentioned that companies are seeking support from Labour to enhance their confidence and provide incentives for investment in 2025. This could be through critical updates to the apprenticeship levy, enhancing employee health via better occupational health benefits, or overhauling business taxes.
Further Discussion on Labour
Sir Keir Starmer 'desperately needs a vacation' – understandable given the continuous stream of dismal news.
Labour's plunge in the polls is unprecedented, yet Nigel Farage has experienced an even greater decline in support.
Minister Tulip Siddiq embroiled in Bangladesh judicial corruption investigation
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According to a survey conducted by the CBI, which gathered opinions from 899 firms from November 25 to December 12, the outlook for economic expansion is the bleakest it has been since November 2022, following the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss.
Explore further on economic topics: Is the Chancellor taking risks with inflation? December sees weak holiday sales, reports ONS
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Official Supports Financial Plan
Following two consecutive months of contraction, the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveal that the economy decreased by 0.1% in October.
Lucy Powell, who heads the House of Commons, expressed her disappointment in the latest ONS statistics during an interview on Sky News' Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, acknowledging the government's desire for quicker economic progress.
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The Labour Member of Parliament for Manchester Central noted, "This is somewhat akin to maneuvering a massive oil tanker…
"Our approach is centered on establishing a solid foundation aimed at fostering economic stability by ensuring a balanced budget, a condition we found lacking upon assuming office."
"We were left with a significant deficit in the government budget that needed to be corrected."
Ms. Powell stood by the increase in employers' National Insurance contributions, admitting that although it was a tough choice, the decision was crucial for directing funds towards the frontline needs of the NHS and additional services.
For further details, visit Sky News: Woman ignited in flames on NYC subway. Labour's polling plunge reaches historic levels, yet Farage has witnessed greater declines. Albania plans a one-year TikTok prohibition.
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Addressing the findings of the CBI's survey, opposition business secretary Andrew Griffith commented: "The chancellor has created an unwelcoming environment for ambition, investment, and economic expansion since assuming office."
The Conservative MP stated: "Rachel Reeves’s increase in taxes and negative comments about the economic situation she inherited are seriously harming businesses and employment."
"Should a recession occur – and it appears more probable given the current CBI forecasts – it would be one originating from Downing Street. It's imperative that Labour swiftly alters its approach to avert further harm."
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UK Economy Stagnates in Third Quarter as Service Sectors Underperform
Updated data reveals that the UK economy experienced no growth in the third quarter, as sectors including legal services, along with bars and restaurants, underperformed expectations.
Monday, December 23, 2024, at 11
According to updated data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's economy experienced zero growth in the previous quarter.
The earlier projection for the July to September period indicated a 0.1% expansion in the economy.
Preliminary data indicates that the real GDP per capita decreased by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024, reflecting a similar decline from the same period in the previous year.
The UK and Italy experienced the weakest economic expansion among the G7 countries during the third quarter, with both nations showing no growth.
The modest increase observed last month fell short of analysts' expectations and represented a decline from the 0.4% growth seen from April to June.
On Monday, Liz McKeown, the director of economic statistics, noted that sectors such as bars and restaurants, legal services, and advertising did not perform as strongly.
"She noted that while the household saving rate has decreased slightly recently, it is still considerably high compared to historical levels."
"Simultaneously, the average disposable income per person in households remained stagnant."
The Office for National Statistics adjusted its second quarter growth estimate for 2024 downward to 0.4%. Initially in September, it had reported an increase in GDP of 0.5%, marking a decrease from earlier projections.
Further troubling updates – is there an end in sight?
Business and economics reporter
The economic outlook continues to worsen for the nation, which spells trouble for the Labour Party as well.
Initially, the administration had ambitions of leading the G7 nations in economic expansion. However, it finds itself trailing behind all others in its performance during its first quarter in office.
Last week, following the budget announcement, the Bank of England updated its forecast, predicting no economic growth from October through December.
Under those circumstances, we would face a six-month period of stagnation.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves, facing criticism from business leaders over her budget, issued a statement acknowledging that the task of "repairing our economy" is "enormous".
She stated that the issues, which have been exacerbated by "15 years of neglect" under the former Conservative administration, are now "igniting our determination to serve the working class."
"She further stated that the budget and our strategy for transformation are designed to ensure sustainable growth over the long term, which will result in increased financial benefits for individuals through enhanced investments and continuous reform."
On Monday morning, Darren Jones, the Labour Party's Chief Secretary to the Treasury, told television and radio stations that his government intends to collaborate with "investors, entrepreneurs, and employees" to boost the economy.
Further reading: Increased National Insurance to cost Sainsbury's £140 million, Chancellor promises to dismantle financial regulations.
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Shadow culture secretary Stuart Andrew characterized the recent statistics as "extremely disheartening."
He informed Sky News, "There are quite alarming indicators that essentially signal a warning for the economy."
"He emphasized the need for reconsideration, noting that the rise in national insurance significantly affected the situation," he stated, adding that the information pertained to a time before the budget reveal.
"Clearly, public trust in the economic expansion has diminished, prompting a serious reevaluation of the poor choices made during the budgeting process."
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Tragic Wait: Over 270 Asylum Seekers Die in UK Amid Processing Delays Since 2015
Since 2015, figures reveal that a minimum of 270 individuals have died in the UK while waiting for the outcomes of their asylum requests. According to migration charities speaking to Sky News, many of the deceased had escaped from war-torn situations and endured perilous travels in search of refuge.
Journalist @kjjjwilliams
Monday, December 23, 2024, 6:
Since 2015, it has been disclosed that a minimum of 270 migrants in the UK have passed away while their asylum requests were pending.
Data from the Home Office, disclosed following a Freedom of Information request by Sky News, revealed that out of the total fatalities, 171 were male.
Three individuals were either adolescents or minors.
Migration-focused organizations informed Sky News that the individuals who died were frequently escaping from atrocities like warfare and had endured perilous travels in search of refuge.
The figures only include instances where the Home Office was informed of a death, suggesting that the actual number might be greater.
According to the nonprofit organization Care4Calais, "The statistics validate our longstanding awareness that an excessive number of asylum seekers perish while awaiting governmental resolution on their status."
"The new administration needs to accelerate its decision-making efforts while also guaranteeing that these decisions are of a high caliber and provide the security that citizens are demanding."
—
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Migrant Help, a charity in the UK that assists asylum seekers, stated: "The loss of any life throughout the asylum-seeking journey is profoundly tragic.
"Individuals who have fled from severe hardships and endured perilous travels to find refuge in the UK should receive the necessary assistance and protection while their applications are being reviewed."
The information, gathered in October, extends through to June of this year, matching the latest period covered by the immigration statistics available at the time the freedom of information request was made.
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Fatalities in the English Channel
Sky News has uncovered through an additional Freedom of Information request that the number of migrant fatalities in the English Channel in 2024 equaled the total deaths recorded over the past four years combined.
As of November 8 this year, the death toll reached 67, compared to a total of 56 fatalities recorded over the years 2020, 2021, 202
The majority occurred in 2021, accounting for 34 fatalities, compared to four in 2022 and 12 in 2023.
Most of the fatalities occurred in the French part of the Channel, therefore the statistics are not from UK government sources.
Based on information provided by Migration Watch, a research organization focusing on UK migration trends, the number of small boat crossings in 2024 is anticipated to surpass those in 2023, 2021, and 2020. However, it is expected to be roughly 10,000 less than the crossings recorded in 2022.
Refugee Action, a charitable organization, has argued that strict border measures have compelled individuals to opt for perilous paths such as crossing the English Channel to enter the UK, resulting in a higher number of fatalities.
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The issue of small boat crossings and immigration continues to be a major political subject, with the government struggling to manage the increasing figures following Brexit.
Earlier this month, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer made an announcement where he set out several benchmarks to assess his administration's performance, but he omitted any specific targets related to immigration.
Despite more than 20,000 individuals making the journey across the Channel in compact vessels since Labour's electoral victory this summer.
The administration has previously stated its focus on dismantling the networks behind the smuggling operations.
A spokesperson from the Home Office expressed, "We extend our deepest condolences and thoughts to the loved ones and acquaintances of the deceased."
"The current administration has resumed the evaluation of asylum applications that were previously delayed due to a backlog left by predecessors."
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Construction Industry Leader Warns Budget Reforms Could Destroy Family Businesses
In a communication addressed to the Prime Minister and obtained by Sky News, construction industry leader Steve Mulholland escalates his critique of fiscal policy adjustments, cautioning that modifications to business property relief could severely damage numerous family-run construction businesses across the UK.
Urban editor @MarkKleinmanSky
Monday, December 23, 2024, 10:
A prominent organization within the construction sector has alerted the prime minister that the policies introduced in the recent budget could severely damage family-owned businesses in the industry, escalating the criticism the government has faced from the business community since late October.
In correspondence obtained by Sky News addressed to Sir Keir Starmer, Steve Mulholland, who helms the Construction Plant-hire Association (CPA), expressed significant worries from family-owned enterprises regarding the recent changes to Business Property Relief and Inheritance Tax announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves.
The upcoming modifications to the BPR, set for introduction in 2026, will establish a maximum limit of £1 million for BPR and will also enforce a 20% tax on assets passed down through inheritance within businesses.
"Mr. Mulholland noted that our organization has already addressed inquiries from worried family businesses seeking clarity on the implications of these modifications and guidance on maintaining operations in accordance with these new strategies."
Just to clarify, these businesses are often large, family-operated establishments known for their reliability and outstanding customer service.
A high-ranking official expressed doubts, stating, "I wonder why we should keep going."
"These adjustments will lead to businesses delaying investments and recruitment choices, and reconsideration of growth strategies amid sustained doubts and instability during a period when firms are least able to tolerate it."
—
News from the United Kingdom
Sir Keir Starmer to travel overseas for New Year's Day
—
Sir Keir Starmer is in dire need of a vacation, a sentiment that comes as no shock given the continuous stream of disheartening news.
The family of British father John Hardy, who is missing in Spain, is becoming increasingly worried.
The Construction Plant-hire Association (CPA) boasts a membership of 1,900 individuals, with Mr. Mulholland characterizing them as crucial to the construction sector, contributing approximately £14 billion to the economy and sustaining more than 190,000 jobs.
"He explained to Sir Keir that most of these companies are operated by families."
"Our constituents are instrumental in the development of the 1.5 million new homes, which are crucial to your administration and a central element of your Plan for Change."
He cautioned the Prime Minister following a series of grievances from leaders in the private sector regarding the effects of the October budget, which was the first issued by a Labour government in almost 15 years.
Leaders in the hospitality and retail sectors have expressed concerns that the combined effects of increases in the National Living Wage and employers' national insurance contributions will compel them to increase prices and reduce jobs and investments.
"Mr. Mulholland wrote that fulfilling your commitment to kickstart construction across Britain necessitates fresh investments in modern equipment, innovative technologies, and workforce development."
The budget for October did not meet expectations in any of these areas.
Moving forward, the suggested modifications to Business Property Relief (BPR) under the broader Inheritance Tax overhaul are expected to significantly and negatively affect small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with 20% of these businesses operating within the construction sector. These changes could particularly harm family-owned firms, which are crucial to the construction plant-hire sector and the broader UK business landscape.
"In accordance with your administration's pledge to collaboratively shape policies with the business sector, we urge you to reevaluate the practical implications of these adjustments through comprehensive discussions with the impacted businesses."
"We hold a common vision for an expanding and stable economy, underpinned by sustainable business strategies implemented across all UK regions."
"In their present form, your suggestions will severely weaken the core businesses that are supposed to support this initiative, posing a long-term and harmful threat to the broader UK economy."
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to Spend New Year Abroad Amid Criticism Over Frequent Travel
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer plans to travel overseas for New Year's Day
Critics have pointed out that the prime minister has made multiple international trips since his election. This upcoming trip marks his first vacation outside the country since assuming office.
Monday, December 23, 2024, 6:
Sir Keir Starmer plans to travel overseas for the New Year, following his Christmas Day celebration at Chequers in Buckinghamshire.
The prime minister is celebrating his initial holiday season in office, following a victory in the general elections held in early July.
A spokesperson from Downing Street stated that he plans to devote the upcoming days to family time.
Instead of choosing Downing Street or their own residence, the Starmers will visit the esteemed Chequers country house, located in the rural area of Buckinghamshire.
The prime minister and his family, having spent December 25th at their current location, will travel overseas to ring in the New Year, though their exact destination remains undisclosed.
The prime minister has faced backlash from certain groups regarding his numerous overseas travels to attend various conferences.
Following Labour's victory in the July elections, he has traveled to various countries such as Samoa, Brazil, Azerbaijan, the United States, Saudi Arabia, among others.
These journeys, though, were undertaken to attend summits and global conferences, not for personal vacations.
A government spokesperson announced Sir Keir's upcoming visit to reporters before the Christmas holiday.
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Journalists were informed that the Prime Minister had a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday morning.
The two talked about how the UK is helping Kyiv in its conflict with Russia.
A representative stated that President Zelenskyy discussed the current conditions at the frontline in Ukraine and emphasized the importance of maintaining Ukraine's capability to weaken Russian forces over an extended period.
In the discussions, it was unanimously decided that Europe and NATO are significantly impacted by the future developments in Ukraine. The leaders concurred that it is crucial for President Putin's objectives in Ukraine to be unsuccessful.
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This arrives before Donald Trump's expected return to the White House in under a month, with his position emphasizing that discussions to resolve the conflict should start promptly.
The representative supported the choice of appointing Lord Peter Mandelson as the ambassador to the United States during Mr. Trump's tenure, emphasizing that the key figure from New Labour possesses significant expertise in foreign policy and trade, illustrating the UK's deep commitment to its alliance with the US.
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Under Pressure: Prime Minister Starmer Seeks Respite Amid Economic Turmoil and Political Unrest
Sir Keir Starmer is evidently in need of a vacation, a sentiment that's understandable given the constant stream of disheartening news. Recent data indicates a stagnating economy, adding yet another concern for the prime minister. His planned summer vacation was disrupted by widespread riots, making his desire for a break all the more necessary. However, his troubles are far from over.
Senior political reporter @joncraig
Monday, December 23, 2024, at 7
It's hardly surprising that Sir Keir Starmer is choosing to spend "a few days" overseas as the New Year approaches, given the consistently bleak economic outlook in the UK.
The spokesperson for the prime minister has stated that the recent GDP statistics highlight the significant and long-term nature of the challenges in repairing the economy and public finances.
Absolutely. The data indicates that the economy is stagnant, showing no signs of growth throughout July, August, and September of this year—essentially, since the election on July 4th.
Is the current financial predicament really the responsibility of the Conservatives, as Downing Street alleges, pointing to the so-called "£22bn black hole"? Or should the finger be pointed at Rachel Reeves' budget, as the Conservatives contend?
The disappointing economic growth cannot be attributed to the budget since it was only presented on October 30, although pessimistic forecasts might have played a role.
Labour ministers frequently point to the "black hole" as the scapegoat for a myriad of issues, ranging from unwelcome tax increases to overflowing prisons, a dysfunctional NHS, and contaminated waterways.
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However, it's not solely the lackluster GDP numbers that are sending Sir Keir off to the beach chair. (Moreover, it's worth noting that the summer unrest did disrupt his vacation plans in August.)
The Confederation of British Industry, representing numerous UK businesses, has warned that the economy is on track for a highly detrimental scenario. Additionally, last week, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, voiced concerns about the recent increases in budgetary taxes.
Conservative backlash ensued: shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith criticized what he described as "a recession crafted in Downing Street," while shadow chancellor Mel Stride asserted, "The warning signals are on."
Richard Holden, the opposition's paymaster general, labeled the chancellor as a "modern-day Grinch", referring to the notorious character known for stealing Christmas presents from an entire town.
The Tories assert that charities are set to contribute approximately £6.3 billion in national insurance payments to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) next year, which represents 45% of the almost £14 billion given by the public.
In a foreboding tone, Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies cautioned following the release of the GDP statistics that the chancellor might have to seek additional funds next fall.
Read further: Largest tax increase since 1993 announced in budget. Overcrowding leads to prisoners being moved to less secure facilities. New NHS league tables planned to enhance healthcare quality. Four water companies responsible for 90% of pollution events.
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Pause for a moment. Last month, the chancellor assured the CBI that there would be no further tax increases.
Indeed, however, Sir Keir refrained from echoing her commitment during Prime Minister's Questions.
During his session with the Liaison Committee composed of senior Members of Parliament last Thursday, the Prime Minister expressed, "I believe one of the greatest errors made over the past 14 years was the assumption that all problems could be resolved by Christmas."
Understood. The consensus is clear: revitalizing the economy and achieving growth is a process that won't happen overnight. It appears even Kemi Badenoch is in agreement on this point.
She informed an interviewer that she will not hastily introduce policies and emphasized that there is no immediate solution for the Tories.
"She claims she's short on time," — is that so?
"In my opinion, four years simply isn't sufficient to achieve our goals," she states, "which involve radically transforming the workings of the state and the operation of our society."
As the new year approaches, both major political parties are urging voters to remain patient into 2025. As the saying goes, they'll need it.
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Negative economic updates and poor survey results have taken their toll. Over the weekend, it was revealed that friends believe Sir Keir is in desperate need of a vacation due to the constant pressure associated with his role.
Remember to pack the sunscreen, prime minister!
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Recap 2024: Test Your Knowledge with Adam Boulton’s Year-End Quiz
Assess your awareness of the past year with Adam Boulton's 2024 quiz
2024 was a jam-packed year filled with significant elections and notable events. Have you kept up? Discover by participating in our quiz.
Sky News contributor @adamboultonTABB
Sunday, December 22, 2024, 6:
As 2024 nears its conclusion, now is the moment to gauge what you've learned over the past year.
Sky News analyst Adam Boulton has compiled a list of 30 questions spanning topics from international politics to the Paris Olympics, designed to test who has really been keeping up with this year's events.
Keep us updated on your progress!
This quiz was put together by Adam Boulton with help from Dr. Tom Roberts, the author.
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Historic Polling Plunge: Labour’s Decline Surpasses Farage’s Record Drop Amidst Political Turmoil
Labour's polling numbers have plummeted dramatically – a decline even steeper than one experienced under Nigel Farage
Currently, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is polling at an average of 26.6%, a significant drop from the 44% it secured in January and following a substantial majority five months earlier. This represents a major shift in voter sentiment.
By Jack Parker, producer for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips
Sunday, December 22, 2024, 08:
The Labour Party is headed for its poorest year-end performance in opinion polls since World War II.
Sir Keir Starmer's political group is currently polling at an average of 26.6%, even though it secured one of the biggest majorities in recent history just five months earlier.
A review of almost a thousand surveys spanning 75 years indicates that the Labour Party is currently trailing by 1% compared to their lowest point at the end of 2016 during Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, which was marred by controversies over antisemitism and challenges to his leadership.
The only comparable years for such minimal support were 1981, marked by the emergence of the SDP-Liberal Alliance that shook up the political scene, and 2009, after ten years in government, during which the party struggled amidst a recession and an expenses scandal.
The Labour Party continues to top the polls, although their lead has narrowed significantly to just 0.5% over the Conservatives, a sharp decrease from their 19% advantage in January.
Kemi Badenoch's political group has seen little to no growth recently. Currently, it holds a 26.1% rating, only slightly more than 2% higher than at the time Liz Truss stepped down.
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Reform UK trails with 21%, followed by the Liberal Democrats at 11.8% and the Green Party at 7.7%.
The calculations for the Sky News program "Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips" were based on average figures derived from the first and last 10 surveys of each year, or the first and last five in years prior to 1997 due to the infrequency of polling back then.
The Labour Party's present position is significantly lower than the 44% support it had back in January.
The 17.6% drop observed since then represents the largest annual decline in backing ever noted in nationwide UK surveys.
On only two other occasions has there been a more abrupt decline.
In 2019, Nigel Farage launched the Brexit Party, which quickly climbed to the top spot in the European Parliament elections following prolonged stalemates in the House of Commons regarding negotiation talks.
Within half a year, most of its backing had shifted to Boris Johnson's Conservative Party.
The decline of the Liberal Democrats in 2010 was even more dramatic. The surge of enthusiasm known as "Cleggmania" during their May election campaign quickly faded after they joined the coalition government as the less favored junior partner.
However, historical evidence indicates that Labour still has a chance.
In the years following their dips below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they experienced recoveries exceeding 10%.
Margaret Thatcher rebounded from a low approval rating of 27% in 1981 to secure a majority of 144 seats, a recovery aided significantly by the Falklands War.
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Reform UK has emerged as the standout victor this year.
Our review reveals that its increase of over 100% ranks as the fourth largest annual rise during peacetime.
However, with the next general election not due for another four years, the key challenge lies in maintaining this momentum.
No other group has managed to sustain an increase in popularity for more than two years since the conflict.
On the last episode of "Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips" for 2024, Trevor Phillips will welcome Lucy Powell, the Leader of the House of Commons, and Kevin Hollinrake, the shadow housing secretary.
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Don't expect a Scrooge-like transformation from Rachel Reeves this holiday season
Host
Charles Dickens was not the creator of Christmas.
However, his 1843 novella, A Christmas Carol, established the blueprint for our modern celebration of the holiday season. Moreover, it played a crucial role in shaping our perceptions of urban poverty and inequality.
The book has continuously been in publication, with over 30 million copies sold. It has inspired countless movies, theatrical productions, musicals, animated works, and spoofs.
In the narrative, the wealthy, stingy Ebenezer Scrooge transforms into a kind benefactor for the disadvantaged after being confronted with the plight of London's street children by three spirits. He evolves into a beloved figure, renowned for his generosity and affection.
Dickens aimed to convince the burgeoning middle classes of the industrial revolution era that they bore a duty to help the less privileged. He was largely successful in this endeavor.
In a matter of months, the legislature had reduced the working hours for children and mandated daily education.
Some individuals might be optimistic that Rachel Reeves will embrace the festive spirit this Christmas by opening her windows wide and joyfully declaring "A Merry Christmas," while also revealing plans to reinstate the winter fuel subsidy for all retirees.
Dismiss it. To my knowledge, the chancellor doesn't hold any beliefs in mystical spirits. I believe she'll remain firm in her position.
Should the specter of Christmas Yet To Come appear, bearing a graph indicating that Labour's dismal polling numbers might continue through to the upcoming election, slated for no later than mid-2029.
Investigations conducted by our group indicate that Labour's vote share is at its lowest point in 75 years when compared to other year-end figures. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a comeback for Starmer's squad.
As the Leader of the House of Commons, Lucy Powell pointed out, the administration vowed to deliver transformation. She likened steering the globe's sixth biggest economy to redirecting an oil tanker—it requires concentration and patience.
Economic expansion could accelerate. The figures for both authorized and unauthorized immigration may be reduced. There is a possibility that both inflation and interest rates will decrease.
However, I wouldn't count on that.
Yet, not all of Labour's challenges stem from the economic conditions they took over. Several issues have been self-inflicted by decisions made by the relatively new government, such as eliminating the winter fuel subsidy and introducing additional business taxes.
The increasing concern for the Labour Party is the mounting media portrayal suggesting that the party made promises while in opposition that they were aware could not be fulfilled by a conscientious government.
Last Christmas, advocating for compensation for the pensions of Waspi women seemed like addressing a wrong. This week, it appears more like the workings of a lobbying effort.
Speaking on the show, Labour peer Lady Ayesha Hazarika noted that governing is a distinct challenge. She mentioned that Sir Keir and his team have a significant parliamentary majority, which provides them with an opportunity to understand the intricacies of governance, though this period for learning won’t last indefinitely.
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Former UK Ambassador Warns of ’24/7 Bar-Room Brawl’ in Trump’s White House: Advice for the New Envoy
Former ambassador to the US predicts a continuous and tumultuous atmosphere in the Trump White House, likening it to a non-stop bar-room brawl
In a discussion on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips, Lord Kim Darroch offers counsel to the incoming Lord Mandelson, set to assume his new role at the start of the year.
Journalist specializing
Sunday, December 22, 2024, 12:
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According to the UK's ex-ambassador to Washington, Donald Trump's potential second term as president would resemble a non-stop, intense confrontation similar to a bar-room brawl.
Lord Darroch served as the UK's ambassador to the US from 2016 to 2019 during President Trump's previous term. His tenure ended when confidential dispatches he had sent back to London, which contained criticisms of the president, were made public.
He discussed on "Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips" the anticipations for Lord Mandelson in his role as ambassador to the US with the administration of the 47th president.
Lord Darroch emphasized the importance of not overreacting to criticism and political attacks.
This came after an adviser from Trump's campaign referred to Lord Mandelson as a "moron."
Lord Darroch remarked that such occurrences are anticipated in the current climate, stating, "this is the new normal with Trump's second term."
"It's akin to an unending tavern fight, with such chaos happening constantly."
"It's essential to be resilient and know how to handle it."
Lord Darroch expressed confidence in Lord Mandelson's ability to handle the situation, noting that he is "able to cope" given
Explore further: Mandelson named as ambassador. Trump supporter labels Mandelson an idiot. In-depth: Provocative remark aimed to provoke – but what's the motive?
Guidance for a Freshly App
In offering guidance to Lord Mandelson, one of the key figures behind the New Labour initiative, Lord Darroch highlighted three key suggestions.
He emphasized the significance of leaving Washington DC, describing the capital as predominantly Democrat at 90%, and not reflective of regions that supported the Republican party.
Lord Darroch mentioned that if the president-elect loses favor in the Midwest and the Deep South, "he's in trouble."
His next tip highlighted that Mr. Trump values the opinions of prosperous entrepreneurs and billionaires.
The incumbent president remains impervious to pressure from government officials attempting to influence his moral judgment. However, he is susceptible to persuasion from wealthy individuals who argue that certain decisions could harm the economy, he stated.
Lord Darroch emphasized the significance of networking and lobbying these individuals as a strategy to sway decisions in the Oval Office.
His last bit of counsel was to be wary of the early morning barrage of tweets.
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Even though Twitter has been rebranded as X, Mr. Trump continues to be active on social media platforms, and his online engagement will gain renewed significance should he return to the presidency.
Lord Darroch remarked, "It was incredibly common for me to be roused at 5am while stationed in Washington, which corresponds to 10am in the UK, due to Trump's early rising habits. He would immediately start tweeting, offering a direct and unfiltered glimpse into his thoughts."
"He will provide insights on global events, including the various activities happening in the UK."
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He mentioned that this would create quite a commotion in the UK, emphasizing the need to maintain a strong stance on the British perspective, which includes voicing criticism when necessary, especially regarding Mr. Trump's remarks.
When questioned about whether the bond between Mr. Trump and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage could pose an obstacle for the new ambassador, Lord Darroch remarked that it was simply an element of the current situation and that Lord Mandelson shouldn't be overly concerned.
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Politics
Government Leaves Door Open for Future Changes in Political Donation Laws Amid Speculations of Elon Musk Funding Reform UK
The government currently has no urgent intentions to prohibit Elon Musk from making significant contributions to Nigel Farage's Reform UK, according to Commons Leader Lucy Powell. During an interview on "Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips," Powell mentioned that while Musk, who resides overseas, is currently unable to contribute directly, the possibility of him donating via his British business entities has not been dismissed, with potential legal adjustments on the horizon.
Journalist specializing
Sunday, December 22, 2024, 12:
The government has stated that there are currently no plans to halt Elon Musk's substantial financial contributions to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party.
Nonetheless, Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell did not rule out potential modifications to the regulations governing political contributions going forward.
There are speculations and whispers suggesting that Mr. Musk might potentially offer significant monetary support, possibly as much as £80 million, to the Reform party following his involvement in Donald Trump's election campaign in the United States.
During an interview on "Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips," when questioned about government intervention, Ms. Powell stated, "There are currently no immediate plans in place for that; however, our manifesto does pledge to conduct a comprehensive review of our country's electoral system."
The Labour Party has pledged to lower the voting age to 16 and to strengthen the reliability and integrity of the electoral system, she further stated.
Ms. Powell noted that current electoral legislation prohibits political contributions from overseas to UK political parties.
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When asked if Mr. Musk could make donations via his electric vehicle firm Tesla, which is said to have earned approximately £90 million in the UK last year, the prominent Labour MP stated that her party plans to introduce reforms to the electoral process in the nation.
She mentioned that there is a strong possibility of introducing a bill related to elections to implement those modifications.
Learn more: Reform UK would be thrilled to accept funding from Musk. Farage and Musk convene at Trump's residence. Conservative co-chair claims Musk is attempting to 'purchase' Reform UK.
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Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform, previously expressed to Sky News his enthusiasm about welcoming financial contributions from Mr. Musk.
It is reported that Nick Candy, the treasurer of the party, has already had a conversation with the billionaire.
Mr. Farage previously mentioned that Mr. Musk has seriously considered donating to his political party after they met at Mr. Trump's Mar-A-Lago residence.
Mr. Farage stated, "He is providing us with political backing. At this point, we have not requested or received any financial contributions."
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Under existing regulations, any contributions exceeding £500 to UK political parties must originate from individuals or businesses that are based or registered in the UK.
Mr. Musk has refuted the speculations regarding a possible £80 million donation, although he has shown backing for Reform UK on his X social media network.
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Politics
Diplomatic Discord: Trump Aide’s Jab at Mandelson Rattles U.S.-U.K. Relations Ahead of Embassy Move
A dig from Trump's aide at Mandelson seemed intentionally provocative – what was the motive?
At the embassy slated for Peter Mandelson's occupancy, there was a belief that things were on solid footing with the new administration.
American reporter for Sky News, @Stone_Sky
Saturday, December 21, 2024, at 9
This situation is quite embarrassing for Downing Street. The individual appointed by the UK government as the central figure in a crucial bilateral relationship is being labeled as an "absolute moron" by a close aide of the newly elected president.
Chris LaCivita plays a key role in Trump's inner circle.
He played a key role in securing Trump's electoral win alongside the soon-to-be White House chief of staff, Susie Wiles. He is part of the inner circle
The language was evidently crafted to provoke a reaction. What was the reason behind it?
Within the embassy that is soon to be occupied by Lord Mandelson, there has been a prevailing belief that interactions with the forthcoming administration have been positive. Ambassador Karen Pierce and her team have diligently worked to foster these diplomatic ties.
In-Depth: Donald Trump
US Government Remains Open as Budget Legislation Passes Through Congress
The US Senate is gearing up to grant its final approval to a new strategy aimed at averting a government
Peter Mandelson's experience in trade is crucial for his significant position in Washington
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This is likely the reason LaCivita refers to Pierce as a "widely admired professional paramedic" while simultaneously attacking Mandelson.
My attempts to reach Team Trump and LaCivita for clarification today have strangely received no response. It's likely that high-level British officials in Washington also tried to engage in some serious PR maneuvering, asserting that his remarks were based on past views and do not reflect his current opinions.
Further reading: Sue Gray named for peerage
The main issue is how much LaCivita's view of Mandelson as an "absolute moron" is a unique opinion or if he was also unofficially expressing Trump's thoughts.
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This situation may either quickly resolve or worsen over time. Should it be the latter, then Mandelson's appointment might turn into a significant issue, despite the substantial benefits he could offer in the role.
The real issue is why Downing Street failed to notice the remarks made by Mandelson on his podcast and address them beforehand. This could have allowed them to be better prepared. Is this a sign of disarray in Downing Street?
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Politics
Urgent Deadline Approaches for Pensioners to Claim Revised Winter Fuel Payment Amidst Controversial Cuts
As the application deadline for the winter fuel allowance approaches, eligible recipients could receive up to £300. Chancellor Rachel Reeves noted that recent changes to the scheme could save the Treasury approximately £1.4 billion this fiscal year. However, pensioners risk missing out on this benefit unless they apply soon.
Saturday, December 21, 2024, 1:
Senior citizens have until this Saturday to submit their applications for benefits that may entitle them to the winter fuel payment, potentially missing out on as much as £300 if they fail to do so.
Eligibility for this benefit is now determined by means testing, and it extends to recipients of pension credit. However, government data indicates that approximately 760,000 households eligible for pension credit are not claiming it.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has chosen to eliminate the automatic right to winter fuel payments, attributing the decision to a budget deficit left by the former Conservative administration.
Ms. Reeves mentioned that the adjustment would lead to a saving of approximately £1.4 billion for the Treasury during this fiscal year.
Winter Fuel Allowance: Are You Qualified to Receive It?
It is anticipated that the count of retirees getting the payment will decrease significantly, dropping from 11.4 million to 1.5 million, a reduction of approximately 10 million beneficiaries.
Individuals born on or before September 22, 1958, are eligible for a financial benefit of £200 or £300 if they are recipients of pension credit or other significant benefits such as universal credit, child tax credit, working tax credit, or jobseeker's allowance.
Pension credit increases weekly earnings to a total of £218.15 for individual retirees or £332.95 for couples.
The cutoff time to be eligible for the 2024/25 winter fuel payment via online submissions is Saturday at 11:59 PM.
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The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has announced that their claim telephone lines will remain operational until 3:15 p.m. on Saturday.
The administration has assigned roughly 500 extra personnel to assist with application processing.
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Charitable organizations have sharply criticized the decision to modify the payment scheme. When the alterations were initially revealed in September, Age UK commented, "We believe it's unjust to withdraw the payment from the 2.5 million low-income pensioners who greatly rely on it."
A representative from the government stated: "More than one million elderly individuals will continue to obtain the winter fuel allowance. Additionally, our efforts to increase the uptake of pension credit have resulted in applications doubling, with an extra 40,000 pensioners now benefiting from it along with the winter fuel payment."
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Discover further details on Sky News: Parliament to examine the increase in poverty among retirees, with an additional 100,000 elderly potentially facing financial hardship.
The responsibility for the winter fuel payment lies with Scotland and also Northern Ireland, where a single payment of £100 will be issued to every pensioner household by March 2025, following the discontinuation of their winter fuel payments.
In November, the authorities in Scotland declared their plan to implement a distinct program for the winter of 2025/26 aimed at individuals receiving qualifying benefits.
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Labour Seeks Balance in House of Lords with 30 New Peerages, Including Sue Gray
Sue Gray, previously serving as Chief of Staff for Sir Keir Starmer, has been proposed for a peerage by the Prime Minister. This is part of a move where 30 individuals have been selected for induction into the House of Lords, as the Labour Party aims to correct a significant disproportion. This effort comes in response to the swell in Conservative numbers seen during their tenure in government.
Political correspondent @alixculbertson
Friday, December 20, 2024, 7:
Sir Keir Starmer has recommended his ex-chief advisor Sue Gray for a peerage.
Ms. Gray, known for her investigative report that played a significant role in the resignation of ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, is one of 30 new Labour appointees to the House of Lords announced before Christmas, aimed at correcting the party representation disparity in the Lords.
The Conservative Party has put forward six candidates, while the Liberal Democrats have selected two.
Also among the distinguished are:
• Carwyn Jones – previous Labour leader in Wales
• Thangam Debbonaire, a previous key figure in the Labour shadow cabinet, experienced an unexpected defeat in her constituency during the recent general election.
• Former Deputy Prime Minister Therese Coffey, a member of the Conservative Party
Further Insights into the House of Lords
Topics: Syria, The Lords, Holiday Queries – Special Q&A Session
Baroness Catherine Meyer is facing a suspension of three weeks for referring to a fellow peer as 'Lord Poppadom' and for touching an MP's hair.
Daughter of Ian Botham Stands Up for Him Following Criticism Over His House of Lords Attendance
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• Toby Young – established and leads the Free Speech Union, and contributes as an associate editor to The Spectator.
Anticipation was high for Ms. Gray's nomination following her departure from her position as chief of staff to Sir Keir in October, which occurred after a power struggle within Downing Street.
The ex-government employee was assigned to a fresh role focusing on national and regional affairs at Number 10. However, it was confirmed in November that she would not assume this position.
In 2022, the Labour Party announced plans to eliminate the House of Lords and introduce a restructured upper chamber in its place.
Before this year's general election, the agenda was revised, with Sir Keir committing to the elimination of the 92 hereditary peers and setting an age limit of 80.
Explore further: 'Prince of Darkness' reappointed as Starmer's envoy to the US. Government initiatives aim to 'revive family physician model'.
It is believed that Sir Keir has put forward these nominations in an effort to shift the balance in favor of Labour in the upper house.
A source from the Labour Party informed Sky News: "The Conservatives have overloaded the House of Lords, resulting in a significant disproportion. This must be addressed to implement the government's agenda for reform and fulfill our commitment to the British electorate.
"We are dedicated to implementing a long-delayed reform agenda and have already introduced laws to end the ability of hereditary peers to occupy seats and vote in the Lords."
An unexpected verdict that could spark skepticism
Correspondent covering national affairs and public response
It is quite unexpected that 30 staunch Labour supporters have been appointed to the House of Lords.
It wasn't too long ago that the Labour Party proposed changes to the House of Lords, aiming to simplify it and eliminate hereditary peers.
A wave of Labour supporters are now entering the scene, which will undoubtedly renew claims of partisan bias.
This also concerns the statistics, as well as the battle for political influence in the House of Lords.
Currently, the House of Lords has 86 more Conservative peers than Labour peers. However, the latest round of appointments alters the balance a bit, with six new Conservative peers and 30 new Labour peers being added.
If the legislation to exclude hereditary peers from the Lords is approved, the gap between the number of Labour and Conservative peers would narrow significantly, with only 21 more Conservative than Labour peers.
The compilation includes a diverse range of individuals – ex-Labour Members of Parliament, labor union members, and personalities from the fields of health, spirituality, and commerce.
Despite ongoing discussions about making changes, it's clear that not much has actually shifted; the longstanding traditions continue to thrive.
Amidst declining public confidence in political structures, a system that prioritizes connections over qualifications can further provoke accusations of a corrupt, self-interested establishment.
Over the span of 14 years under Conservative rule, the party's representation in the House of Lords increased to 273 peers. Meanwhile, the Labour Party has 187 peers, the Liberal Democrats have 78, and there are 184 crossbenchers who are independent of any party affiliation.
The number of Labour peers will increase to 217, while the Conservatives will have 279 and the Liberal Democrats will have
The autonomous House of Lords Appointments Commission (HOLAC) is set to scrutinize the nominations prior to the prime minister proposing them to the King.
A title must first be settled upon, followed by the issuance of legal papers known as the writ of summons from parliament, along with a letters patent from the King, which officially establishes a life peerage. The individual can then take their seat in the House of Lords and participate in voting.
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Complete catalog of noble titles:
Work:
Professor Wendy Alexander FRSE, Sir Brendan Barber, Luciana Berger, Mary Bousted, Kevin Brennan, Lyn Brown, Dinah Caine OBE CBE, Kay Carberry CBE, Margaret Curran, Thangam Debbonaire, Julie Elliott, David Evans, Sue Gray, Theresa Griffin, Anji Hunter, Carwyn Jones, Mike Katz, Gerard Lemos CMG CBE, Alison Levitt KC, Anne Longfield CBE, Deborah Mattinson, Steve McCabe, Claude Moraes OBE, Wendy Nichols, Simon Pitkeathley, Dame Anne Marie Rafferty DBE FRCN, Krish Raval OBE, Marvin Rees OBE, Reverend Dr. Russell David Rook OBE, Phil Wilson.
Right-leaning Individuals:
Nigel Biggar, who has been honored with a CBE, Joanne Cash, Rt Hon Dame Therese Coffey, who holds a PhD, Roger Evans, Rachel Maclean, and Toby Young are listed under the Conservative party. For the Liberal Democrats, the list includes Councillor Shaffaq Mohammed,
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