**Title: “Lap Time Analysis Casts Doubt on Marquez’s Misano Hat-Trick, as Bagnaia and Martin Shine in Emilia-Romagna MotoGP Practice”**

Lap time data suggests Marc Marquez is unlikely to secure another victory at Misano.

Securing a third consecutive win seems improbable following Friday's performance at Emilia-Romagna MotoGP.

Following a wet morning at Misano for the second consecutive Friday, the scene at the conclusion of Practice for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix appeared quite familiar.

Francesco Bagnaia not only led the San Marino GP practice sessions but also set a new lap record of 1 minute 30.286 seconds during Friday's practice at the Emilia Romagna GP. This achievement placed him 0.198 seconds ahead of the championship leader, Jorge Martin.

The Pramac rider experienced a fall towards the conclusion of the second practice session but still managed to easily qualify for Q2. Following closely, Marc Marquez, who has won the last two races, clocked a time of 1m30.585s on his Gresini Ducati. Meanwhile, Enea Bastianini, riding for the sister factory team on a Desmosedici, secured fourth place with a time of 1m30.607s.

Bagnaia, Martin, Marquez, and Bastianini had an outstanding performance today. It was a powerful showing from the top four riders. #MotoGP #EmiliaRomagnaGP pic.twitter.com/SGUxlHBznS— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) September 20, 2024

There was a notable gap of 0.279 seconds separating the leading four riders from the others, with Yamaha's Fabio Quartararo being the closest competitor to MotoGP 2024's top quartet.

Since 2021, MotoGP has not scheduled two races at the same track within one season. Typically, the second race at a particular circuit results in closer competition. However, based on the practice sessions held on Friday for the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, this trend does not seem to be continuing.

Currently, the forecast suggests a three-level competition: Bagnaia and Martin are vying for first place; Marquez and Bastianini are contending for the last podium position; and there's a separate contest among the remaining participants.

On Friday at Misano, Bagnaia and Martin demonstrated excellent race pace. They both concentrated on using the medium rear tire, which was the chosen option for the San Marino GP. Although cooler temperatures are anticipated for the grand prix this Sunday, the medium rear tire is expected to stay the preferred choice as long as the track doesn't become too cold.

Bagnaia completed 13 laps using his medium rear tire, achieving his fastest time of 1 minute 30.902 seconds on the last lap with that tire. When considering the average pace over six laps (excluding canceled and non-representative times), Bagnaia's average speed was 1 minute 31.210 seconds.

Martin completed 11 laps using a medium rear tire, achieving his best lap time of 1m30.844s on his 11th circuit. When considering a six-lap average after excluding outlier times, his average pace was 1m31.306s. This is slightly slower than Bagnaia's time, but over the course of a 27-lap grand prix, their performances are almost identical.

On Friday evening at Misano, both riders expressed their satisfaction with their performances when they talked to the press. Marc Marquez noted that when the track has good grip, the leading championship contenders tend to pull ahead of the others. However, Bagnaia mentioned that he felt sluggish because the grip on both the front and rear tires wasn't ideal.

As only seven points separate Martin and Bagnaia following the San Marino Grand Prix, this weekend is crucial for both riders to gain momentum in the championship race as they begin a three-race series that also features events in Indonesia and Japan.

During the initial Misano race, having a good position on the track was vital. Even though Bagnaia began in the lead, Martin managed to overtake him right from the start, despite beginning in fourth place during the sprint. Bagnaia struggled to pass Martin due to the disturbed airflow caused by the Pramac bike. In the main race, Bagnaia maintained his lead in the early stages but eventually conceded to Marquez when the conditions shifted.

Pecco Bagnaia is displaying the same impressive one-lap speed he had before, but now he's fully recovered from his injuries at Aragon. Additionally, he is showing consistent long-distance performance. As he approaches his 100th MotoGP race, there's a good chance it will be a standout event, especially since he aims to achieve Ducati’s 100th victory.

Marquez Unlikely to Secure Three Consecutive Wins

Friday proved to be challenging for Marquez. He experienced what he described as “something strange” with his GP23 bike during the early part of the second session, which affected his planned strategy. Despite this, the Gresini team rider, who won the last MotoGP Emilia Romagna GP in 2021, completed 14 laps using a medium rear tire.

He clocked his fastest lap at 1 minute and 31.292 seconds on his 13th circuit, averaging a speed of 1 minute and 31.583 seconds per lap. Over the length of a grand prix race, this translates to a gap of 10.071 seconds behind Bagnaia.

Throughout 2024, the dynamic pair of Marquez and his crew chief Frankie Carchedi have achieved significant improvements on race days. However, it currently seems unlikely that Marquez will secure his first trio of consecutive victories since 2019.

It appears his main competitor will be Bastianini. The Italian rider completed 18 laps using a medium rear tire, achieving his fastest lap of 1 minute and 31.472 seconds on his 17th lap. His average lap time was approximately 1 minute and 31.649 seconds. However, he confessed that he didn't feel entirely confident on the medium tire when navigating left-hand turns.

On average, two riders outpaced Marquez and Bastianini. Tech3 GASGAS newcomer Pedro Acosta had an average time of 1 minute and 31.352 seconds, while VR46 Ducati's Marco Bezzecchi clocked in at 1 minute and 31.541 seconds.

However, both riders performed on the softer rear tire, with Acosta managing just three significant laps on average. They might be able to create some upsets during qualifying and secure favorable starting positions, but aiming for a podium finish seems ambitious.

Quartararo's commendable performance, finishing fifth on his Yamaha, was supported by a solid race pace. Over the course of 14 laps using a medium rear tire, Quartararo's quickest lap was 1m31.581s, with an average lap time of 1m31.664s.

Although his speed diminished as the tire aged compared to those ahead of him in the rankings, achieving a top-five position seems like a realistic goal for the French driver.

Following an impressive San Marino weekend and a productive post-race test, Quartararo seemed to have access to two of Yamaha's new chassis on Friday. Due to Yamaha's struggles with overtaking, he will be continually pressured from competitors behind him, making it very challenging to advance, even if he secures a good qualifying position.

Friday's developments at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix indicate that a return to Misano might not deliver the exciting group showdown that was anticipated. However, the potential for a direct duel between Bagnaia and Martin, given the high stakes in the championship race, is incredibly enticing.

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