Polls Predict Tory Collapse as Reform UK Rises, Labour Poised for Historic Victory

New survey forecasts only 72 seats for Conservatives in upcoming election

Survey experts indicate the Conservatives are on the brink of dramatic decline, as Reform UK gains ground.

Political journalist @Journoamrogers

Sunday, June 16, 2024, 1:

Recent surveys indicate troubling trends for Rishi Sunak, as one reveals a four-point decline and another predicts his party is likely to secure only 72 seats.

A survey conducted by Savanta for The Sunday Telegraph indicated a decline of four points for the Conservatives, bringing them to only 21% of the vote – this is the lowest level recorded by this pollster since the final period of Theresa May's leadership in early 2019.

In a positive development for Nigel Farage, the survey indicated that Reform UK's support had increased by three points, reaching 13% of the total vote.

A different survey conducted by Survation for Best for Britain and reported by The Sunday Times forecasts that the Conservatives are likely to secure only 72 seats in the upcoming parliamentary elections, while Labour could win as many as 456 seats.

The outcome would secure a 262-seat majority for Labour, significantly exceeding the sweeping victory that Sir Tony Blair secured in 1997. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats would gain 56 seats, Reform would capture seven, and the Greens would obtain one seat.

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According to a Savanta survey conducted between June 12 and June 14, which included 2,045 participants aged 18 and older, the Labour Party has gained two percentage points, now holding 46% of the voter preference.

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Farage foresees conflict within the Conservative Party, while a former Cabinet minister urges voters to consolidate right-wing support.

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Chris Hopkins, the political research chief at Savanta, remarked that the survey indicated a potential "complete wipeout for the Conservative Party" in upcoming elections.

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"Conservative candidates' prospects are being increasingly dashed as successive polls depict the party's dire situation, and the campaign is only at its midpoint," he remarked.

"Many feel that the situation may deteriorate further for the Conservatives. With postal ballots soon to be delivered to countless homes, Rishi Sunak is rapidly approaching a critical deadline."

Two recent polls come after a YouGov survey on Thursday that showed Nigel Farage's party surpassing the Tories for the first time, capturing 19% of the vote, while the Conservatives received 18%.

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This development led Mr. Farage to proclaim Reform as the primary challenger to Labour in the upcoming election.

Mr. Sunak has consistently claimed that casting a vote for Reform would essentially be handing a blank cheque to the Labour Party, an assertion that Mr. Farage has rejected.

Survation conducted a survey involving 22,000 participants from May 31 to June 13. Early in the survey timeline, on June 4, Mr. Farage declared his new position as the leader of Reform and his candidacy in Clacton, Essex.

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According to the Survation findings, the Conservative Party's vote percentage would drop from 44% in 2019 to 24%, whereas Labour's share would rise from 32% to 40%.

During a press conference at the G7 summit in Italy on Friday, the prime preemphasized, "We are at the midpoint of this election campaign, and I am vigorously campaigning for every single vote."

"The survey indicates that the critical vote is on July 4th. However, should the results on that day mirror this survey, it would essentially give the Labour Party free rein to impose taxes on everything—people's homes, pensions, vehicles, and families. I am committed to vigorously opposing this outcome."

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Mr. Sunak also declared his intention to remain in politics for another five years, regardless of the election results.

When questioned about whether he would pledge to complete a full five-year term as Prime Minister if victorious in the election, and commit to a five-year term as a Member of Parliament should he not win, his response was straightforward: "Yes. Yes."

He responded negatively when asked if he intended to alter his campaign strategies due to the challenge posed by Reform.

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