Under the Microscope: Comparing Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer’s Track Records and Future Promises at Sky News Leaders’ Event

What do the statistics and commitments of Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer reveal?

During a session in Grimsby, both leaders were scrutinized on their historical and current promises by Beth Rigby and the audience, with Rishi Sunak particularly having to address his performance as Prime Minister.

Business reporter @pkelso

Wednesday, June 12, 2024, 11:

During the Sky News event featuring key political figures, Sir Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak faced scrutiny over their past actions and future intentions. Both occasionally found it difficult to adequately address criticisms regarding their shortcomings and gaps in their political records.

Sir Keir took the lead and was confronted with questions about his past backing of Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives view this as a strategic advantage, especially considering his attempts to separate his Labour Party from the ousted ex-leader.

During the interview, Beth Rigby mentioned his 2020 campaign to succeed Mr. Corbyn, pointing out that the Labour leader had abandoned "six or seven" commitments he had previously declared as "the moral case for socialism."

A glance at the scorecard confirms Rigby's accuracy.

Sir Keir has withdrawn his pledge to raise income taxes for the highest 5% of earners, along with dropping the commitment to "support the elimination of tuition fees." Additionally, his previous vow to get rid of Universal Credit has shifted to a "fundamental reform" of the system.

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The pledged 'Green New Deal' remains intact, though its scope has been significantly reduced from £28 billion annually to £23 billion over five years. Additionally, plans to nationalize "rail, mail, energy, and water" have been extensively revised.

Railways alone will be re-nationalized, as Sir Keir believes the cost of compensating shareholders for energy companies is excessively high.

A key clue regarding Sir Keir's future actions can be inferred from his statements on taxation, as well as from the topics he chose not to address.

The head of the Labour Party reiterated his commitment to not increasing the tax burden on working individuals, specifically stating that there would be no hikes in income tax, national insurance, or VAT. However, when pressed further, he consistently declined to dismiss the possibility of raising other taxes, such as capital gains tax (CGT).

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Capital Gains Tax (CGT) applies to profits from asset sales, with tax rates ranging from 10% to 28%. In contrast, income tax rates start at 20% and can go up to 45%. This disparity allows individuals with substantial assets to potentially pay lower taxes on their earnings compared to a nurse.

According to projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility, capital gains tax is expected to generate £15.2 billion this year, with figures anticipated to climb to £23.5 billion by 2028-29. However, a study from the University of Warwick suggests that aligning capital gains tax rates with those of income tax could potentially increase revenues by an additional £16.9 billion each year.

Sir Keir's reluctance to make a definite decision indicates that an increase in Capital Gains Tax could still be a possibility when Rachel Reeves potentially drafts her initial budget.

Should she take office, she wouldn't be the inaugural finance minister to implement tax hikes right after an election.

According to a study by the Resolution Foundation, since 1992, nearly all new chancellors have increased taxes within their first two budget announcements following an election, with an average hike of around £21 billion.

Has Rishi Sunak Fulfilled His Promises?

While Sir Keir faces questions about his potential actions if elected, Mr. Sunak is scrutinized for his past decisions.

As the leader of a party that has governed for 14 years, Mr. Sunak has fully exposed himself to scrutiny by committing to five distinct promises last January, against which his performance can be clearly assessed.

He committed to cutting inflation by 50%, boosting economic growth, decreasing national debt, lowering the number of people waiting for NHS services, and halting illegal immigration via small boats by the end of the year.

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He can be clearly credited with success solely on the issue of inflation, though even this achievement is a matter of debate.

Inflation dropped significantly from 11% to just over 5%, currently standing at 2.6%. However, this decrease was largely due to external influences, particularly declining energy costs, and the interventions by central banks, rather than any direct result of domestic policy decisions aimed at curbing inflation.

Mr. Sunak informed Rigby that inflation has returned to "normal levels," clarifying that this refers to the rate at which prices are rising, not the actual effect on expenses.

Viewed from this perspective, prices have increased by about 20% since the Ukraine conflict began, establishing a new "normal" that is hardly welcomed by anyone.

Regarding economic expansion, Mr. Sunak did not specify his preferred metric. While the economy contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023 compared to the preceding quarter, the annual growth edged up by 0.1% – a slight increase, yet sufficient for him to declare victory.

The remainder of the list presents a bleak outlook for the prime minister. Although debt is expected to decrease in five years, it currently remains high, a standard both the Conservatives and Labour adhere to when establishing their financial guidelines.

The Prime Minister faced even greater challenges with the NHS and immigration, as statistical data aligned with the experiences of individuals dealing with overwhelmed public services.

Queue lengths for services have significantly increased, reaching a high of 7.4 million before recently experiencing a slight decrease. In contrast to the initial televised debate, Mr. Sunak refrained from claiming that this minor drop represented a victory.

He was more aggressive in handling small boat issues, yet it cannot be claimed that he halted the crossings. In 2023, there were approximately 15,000 fewer crossings compared to the previous year. However, this year, the numbers have increased again.

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The wider issues with immigration remain troubling. Each Conservative Prime Minister, from Cameron through to Truss, has pledged to reduce net migration to tens of thousands but has not succeeded.

Mr. Sunak did not establish a specific goal, yet he presided over a record-breaking number, with over 800,000 individuals last year, a statistic that resonated with those present in Grimsby.

Recent statistics indicate a decline in net migration, with a reduction in visa approvals following stricter regulations on student dependents, care workers, and higher salary requirements for skilled professionals.

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