Sunak’s ‘Kitchen Sink’ Manifesto Misses Key Tax Promise Amid Conservative Struggles

Rishi Sunak presents comprehensive manifesto – yet fails to guarantee the major reduction in taxes that Tory MPs desire

The Prime Minister has included a wide array of policies in the extensive 72-page Conservative manifesto, yet the issue of high taxes remains a significant challenge for a party that traditionally champions tax reductions.

Assistant Deputy Political Editor @SamCoatesSky

Wednesday, June 12, 2024, 7:

As Rishi Sunak concluded his manifesto unveiling at the iconic Silverstone race track, filled with symbolic undertones, it became evident how monumental the prime minister's challenge would be for the rest of the election campaign.

Based on a special Sky News-YouGov survey, it's crucial for Sunak to accelerate his efforts immediately, otherwise he risks falling to the lowest tier of the rankings.

He made his remarks mere hours before new data revealed that support for the Conservative Party had plummeted to a record low for this session of parliament, at 18%. This places Prime Minister Sunak's party barely ahead of Nigel Farage's Reform UK, which is at 17%, suggesting a potential shift in voter allegiance could be imminent.

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One-third of those who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019, who previously supported Boris Johnson, now indicate they will vote for Reform UK. Additionally, only 22% of respondents, a decrease of two percentage points in the past two weeks, believe that Sunak will be an effective prime minister. This decline may be linked to the Prime Minister's choice to depart early from D-Day commemoration events, a decision that might have further impacted his approval ratings.

Labour's vote has fallen by three points to 38%, a development that is unlikely to uplift the spirits of the Conservative party, currently plagued by deep internal strife. This dip corresponds with a four-point increase in support for the Liberal Democrats, who now stand at 15%. This shift occurred during a period of high visibility for the Liberal Democrat manifesto, according to YouGov's polling data.

The issue at hand is whether the Conservative Party's manifesto unveiling could have introduced any fresh elements that might reverse their fortunes, considering their current situation is as bleak as any party member can recall.

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Sunak has fully committed to this manifesto, which spans 72 pages and includes almost £20 billion in tax and spending proposals.

There are commitments aimed at satisfying and attracting a wide range of groups, including a 2p reduction in national insurance for working families, a faster removal of national insurance for the self-employed, tax reductions on pensions, support for first-time home buyers, and tax incentives for affluent parents. Sunak stated that these will be financed primarily through additional vows to reduce welfare expenditures, tighten public sector budgets, and implement further measures against tax avoidance.

The Conservative Party has released a comprehensive manifesto that covers a wide range of issues, much like previous extensive manifestos in recent years.

Sir Keir Starmer boldly likened Sunak's proposals to those of Jeremy Corbyn, pointing out that while they appear popular and perform well in polls, they are not financially sustainable when considered as a whole.

The leader of the Labour Party, evidently buoyed by a substantial lead of 20 points in the polls, boldly distanced himself from a manifesto that he had previously championed just five years earlier.

However, his strategic aim in addressing this issue serves a dual purpose: first, he seeks to further undermine the Conservatives' reputation for economic competence, and second, he highlights that having a manifesto filled with appealing policies does not necessarily guarantee an election victory.

Discover more: Who is leading in the polls for the upcoming election? See our tracking data. Items hurled at Farage. What are the major promises of the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats?

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Despite the prime minister's array of appealing proposals, he fell short of securing the most significant assurance that many Conservative MPs had hoped for – a commitment to lower the total tax burden in the upcoming legislative session.

The issue of taxes looms large for a party that prides itself on a tradition of keeping taxes low, particularly during an event where Sunak boldly referenced Nigel Lawson, the chancellor known for reducing taxes in the 1980s.

Sunak is unable to reduce it. Moreover, he is not fully prepared to be entirely open about this matter.

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Take a close look at the difficult interaction during the press questions that followed, where Sunak's deft maneuvering was apparent.

The Daily Mail inquired, "If you are elected, can you assure that by the end of your term, the total tax burden will have decreased?"

In response, Sunak stated, "Due to the initiatives set forth in the manifesto, which you can review later, the tax burden will decrease by approximately one percentage point annually from the projections made in the spring budget a few months ago, as detailed by Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor."

The response is intentionally vague as the reality is difficult to accept: an increasing number of individuals are finding themselves in higher tax brackets due to static thresholds, a strategy aimed at recouping some of the financial losses from the COVID pandemic.

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According to Ed Conway, the economics editor at Sky, he points out that despite the tax reductions outlined in the manifesto, tax rates for everyone in the year 2028-29 will remain higher than current levels.

In response to the Daily Mail, it's confirmed that taxes will indeed increase, though not to the extent initially expected.

Sunak's response, although accurate, portrayed the tax situation more positively than it actually is, presenting a challenge for a Conservative leader aiming to emphasize taxation as the main point of contention with the Labour party in the current election.

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Beth Rigby highlighted a poll indicating that merely one out of six voters trusts that Sunak will not increase their taxes, or major taxes, in contrast to one out of four who believe the same about Labour. Rigby questioned him on whether this suggests he has made a significant mistake.

He implored, "I'm not afraid to tackle tough challenges," although it seems uncertain if many of his allies are convinced that this assertion will resonate with the public, especially this far into the political season.

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are set to be questioned by Beth Rigby and the public in a unique event hosted by Sky News this Wednesday.

The show broadcasts live from Grimsby starting at 7pm on Sky News, which you can find on Freeview channel 233, Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 603, and BT channel 313. It's also streamed live on the Sky News website, their mobile app, and various social media platforms. Additionally, viewers can catch it on Sky Showcase.

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