SNP’s Independence Dream Dims Amid Resurgent Labour and Internal Strife

The Scottish National Party (SNP) is grappling with a trio of challenges, putting its primary aim of securing independence in jeopardy. At the forefront of its platform, the SNP vows to achieve independence. However, a revitalized Labour Party and scrutiny over its governance performance suggest that this objective may be slipping away.

Political reporter @tamcohen

Wednesday, June 19, 2024, 9:

For optimal video playback, it is recommended to use the Chrome browser.

John Swinney has spent the majority of his brief tenure as Scotland's first minister actively campaigning, a role he assumed only six weeks ago.

Over the past 15 months, the SNP has faced significant challenges after the departures of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf. Now, the pro-independence party is struggling to maintain its position as a revitalized Labour Party threatens to reclaim its former strongholds.

For the nationalists, the stakes are critical. After securing 48 seats in the 2019 elections, recent YouGov polling suggests they might be reduced to only 20 seats.

Latest election update: Significant downturn for Conservatives following surge in backing for Reform Party

Numerous electoral districts, particularly in the highly competitive central region, have shown varying poll results with some indicating significantly lower support for the SNP. This variability puts their primary objective of achieving independence in jeopardy.

The party's platform, presented in Edinburgh, included, just as Mr. Swinney had assured, a commitment to establish Scotland as "an independent country" from the very first page, first line.

The statement suggests that should the party secure a majority of Scotland's seats – specifically 29 out of the 57 seats adjusted by the new boundaries – the Scottish government will be "empowered" to initiate discussions with the UK government to democratically enact independence.

Further Details on the 2024 General Election

Labour Promises to Eliminate Rental 'Bidding Wars', Though Activists Claim Proposals Merely Skim the Surface

Find out which political group might emerge victorious in your local area according to YouGov's forecast

Survey indicates unprecedented decline for Conservatives – what shifts might occur within a fortnight?

In our interview, I challenged Swinney on his commitment to pursue independence despite his party potentially losing up to 20 seats, suggesting that voters might find this approach absurd.

He emphasized that a strong performance by the SNP, defined as securing more seats than Labour, would lead to renewed calls for an independence referendum.

The likelihood of a future Labour administration permitting such a referendum, similar to the Conservative's denial since 2014, remains slim.

He also declined to comment on whether a defeat for the nationalists in the Westminster election would constitute a mandate for the union.

The Scottish National Party maintains that its victory in the 2021 Scottish parliament elections, where a majority of Members of the Scottish Parliament supported independence, still stands as a legitimate mandate.

This manifesto essentially functions as a set of desires—it represents aspirations for the entire UK, even though the nationalists only contest elections in one region and therefore cannot achieve an overall victory.

The emphasis reveals the party's perception of the key battleground against Labour. Swinney described it as the most progressive manifesto of this election and, during his speech, he criticized austerity measures, which he believes Labour would maintain.

The proposal urges the UK government to invest £16 billion into the NHS, with the funds to be raised through increased income taxes; it also suggests abolishing the two-child benefit limit, which has been a contentious issue for Labour, and highlights the SNP's unique stances on overturning Brexit and eliminating the nuclear deterrent.

"Swinney highlighted to me the significant difficulties that our public services are currently grappling with,"

"The perpetuation of austerity measures, as proposed by both the Labour Party and the Conservatives, is unnecessary and will significantly harm our public services.

"I'm stating that in this election… if the next UK government adopted our tax strategies, then the level of funding I propose could be directed towards the National Health Service. Thus, there's a decision to be made. They require funding."

According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, those earning a moderate income in Scotland face higher income tax rates, at a time when NHS waiting times have reached unprecedented levels and there is a projected decrease in the health and social care budget this year.

Since its ascent to power in Scotland in 2007, the SNP has faced scrutiny over its governance and, similar to the Tories, a growing call for new leadership.

In 2015, it created a major stir in Westminster by securing 56 of the 59 available seats, significantly weakening Labour's hold in the region, and has maintained a robust presence ever since.

In the 2017 election, it suffered a loss of 21 seats, which favoured both Labour and the Conservatives, yet saw a resurgence in 2019, driven by Boris Johnson and the Brexit movement.

Further Information: Analyze Party Commitments: Discover the pledges various parties are making. Use the YouGov forecast to see which party might prevail in your local area.

Stay informed with the most recent updates from the UK and across the globe by tuning into Sky News.

Stay ahead with the latest Breaking News

Download the Sky News application at no cost

In 2020, the movement for independence was gaining momentum, reaching a support level of 53% as the COVID pandemic enhanced the public approval of Nicola Sturgeon.

She is currently grappling with three significant crises. Once regarded as one of the most favored politicians in the UK, her recent decline and the ensuing police investigation have plunged her party into chaos.

The Scottish National Party's performance in power is being heavily criticized, with the issue of independence dropping to the fifth most important concern among Scottish citizens, overtaken by issues such as the cost of living and healthcare.

Now, similar to the Conservative MPs cautioning about the possibility of a Labour supermajority, the nationalists too are raising alarms about an impending overwhelming victory for Labour.

They are encouraging voters to re-elect SNP MPs to confront a Labour government, asserting that on issues like welfare, Brexit, and the conflict in Gaza, they will exert influence on Sir Keir Starmer.

However, among the electorate that Sky News interviewed in Edinburgh South and Musselburgh, areas where the SNP enjoys a 12,000-vote lead, a number of individuals expressed their intent to switch allegiance driven by a yearning for new direction.

Some continued to support the SNP, though they didn't anticipate independence happening.

On the issue of independence, the Scottish population remains evenly split, with about half in favor and half opposed. However, the prospects for achieving it seem to be diminishing for the time being.

Associated Subjects

Footer of Sky News

Information about Sky News

Services Provided by Sky News

Channels Under Sky

Additional Sky Websites