**Historic Shift: Labour Poised for Monumental Majority as Tories Face Record Defeat, Mega Poll Reveals**

Conservatives poised for unprecedented loss as Labour potentially gains 256-seat majority, survey indicates

According to a survey involving nearly 20,000 participants, the Labour Party is projected to secure over 450 seats, achieving the largest majority since the Second World War.

Political journalist @fayebrownSky

Tuesday, June 18, 2024, 6:

According to a recent survey, the Labour Party is poised to secure a 256-seat majority in the upcoming general election, while the Conservative Party is projected to suffer its most significant loss to date.

In the initial Majoritarian Representation Poll for the 2024 election, Ipsos projected that Sir Keir Starmer's party might secure 453 seats, while the Conservatives could obtain 115.

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If this is accurate, it would give the Labour Party an unprecedented post-war majority of 256 seats, reducing the Conservative Party’s representation in Parliament to historically low levels.

This scenario would result in prominent members of the Conservative Party, including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan, Johnny Mercer, and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, being ousted from their parliamentary positions.

The Ipsos survey has recorded the highest forecast yet for Labour's potential majority, despite them consistently holding a 20-point advantage in previous polls.

The survey forecasts that the Liberal Democrats might secure 38 seats, while the Scottish National Party is projected to capture 15. Additionally, both the Green Party and Reform UK are expected to garner three seats each.

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Forecasts suggest that Nigel Farage is poised to defeat a substantial Conservative lead and secure victory in Clacton. Meanwhile, ex-Labour chief Jeremy Corbyn, now running as an independent, is expected to be defeated by his previous party in Islington North.

The survey is expected to solidify concerns among Conservative party members about a catastrophic decline.

Despite pledges of additional tax reductions in his platform, Rishi Sunak has not managed to make significant inroads in a campaign plagued by political missteps, including his premature departure from a D-Day event.

Numerous predictions of a major victory for the Labour Party have left many Conservatives feeling despondent. On Monday, the Prime Minister had to reassert his belief that his party still had a chance to win the upcoming election, following the Defence Secretary Mr. Shapps' admission that a loss seemed probable.

Lately, prominent leaders have been cautioning the electorate about the potential dangers of a dominant Labour majority, as part of their efforts to persuade wavering voters to remain loyal.

Over 100 seats hang in the balance

The Ipsos forecast suggests a significant lead for the Labour Party, despite over 100 constituencies being categorized as "too close to call".

The analysis indicates that 117 constituencies are highly competitive, with a victory margin of under five percentage points.

This highlights how the undecided voter segment could potentially alter the election results for the Conservative Party.

Kelly Beaver, the head of Ipsos UK and Ireland, stated: "Labour is seeing a rise in its vote share from 2019 throughout the nation, particularly in Scotland and the North East, whereas the Conservatives are experiencing a drop in support in every region, most notably in the East and South of England, as well as throughout the Midlands.

"Most alarming for them is the evidence suggesting they are shedding the most votes in regions where they performed best in 2019."

The survey employed a multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) approach to estimate results for individual constituencies, drawing on responses from 19,689 British adults collected from June 7 to June 12.

This marks the second survey this week to employ this method, coming after a Survation survey on Monday which also projected a substantial majority for Labour.

The Ipsos survey marks the inaugural MRP poll carried out fully following Mr. Farage's declaration that he will assume leadership of Reform UK and pursue his eighth bid for a parliamentary seat, this occasion in Clacton, Essex.

Political landscape poised for major transformation

According to the survey, Mr. Farage appears likely to secure the seat, and his Reform UK party may also gain control of Lee Anderson's Ashfield district along with potentially another seat, having garnered 12% of the vote nationwide.

This indicates that the party is on par with the Greens in seat count, according to Ipsos, which predicts that the Greens may secure victories in Bristol Central, North Herefordshire, and Waveney Valley, although they might surrender their existing seat in Brighton Pavilion to Labour.

The survey indicates that the Liberal Democrats are advancing in both the South East and South West, boosting their seat count to 38 and reclaiming their status as the third major party in the Commons.

In a recent statement, Ipsos pointed out that the Scottish National Party's (SNP) prospects remain uncertain, as they are narrowly trailing behind Labour in Scotland. They are projected to secure approximately 15 seats, which marks a notable decrease from the 48 seats they captured in the 2019 elections.

Ms. Beaver described the survey as merely reflecting the current electoral preferences of the populace, emphasizing that there was still an opportunity for shifts in these attitudes before the actual voting.

She continued, "However, this information, along with the majority of the evidence we've observed before and during this election season, regarding the nation's sentiment and actual outcomes from local and special elections, indicates that the British political landscape may be on the verge of another major transformation."

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