Historic Shift: Labour Poised for Massive Majority as Tories Face Record Low Seats, New Poll Reveals

New poll indicates a historic win for Labour with a 200-seat majority, while Conservatives may hit record low in MP count

According to a recent YouGov MRP analysis for Sky News, Labour is predicted to secure one of the largest majorities since World War II, as the Conservative Party faces a significant decrease to their lowest ever number of Members of Parliament.

Written by Sam Coates, Associate Political Editor, and Joely Santa Cruz, Journalist Specializing in Data Analysis

Wednesday, June 19, 2024, 9:

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According to a recent YouGov projection, the Labour Party is poised to secure a 200-seat majority, while the Conservatives are projected to receive the fewest seats since their establishment in 1834.

If these forecasts hold true during the national elections on July 4th, Labour is poised to secure its biggest majority since World War II, second only to one prior occasion.

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Sky News, in collaboration with YouGov, has released the second of three election polling forecasts. This projection utilizes a modeling approach called MRP.

The most recent survey indicates that the Labour Party is poised to secure a majority that exceeds their earlier forecast from June 3rd by six seats, previously estimated at 194.

If these and similar MRP surveys prove to be correct, it indicates that Britain may be on the verge of a significant reshaping of its political map.

The forecast indicates that Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is expected to drop to 108 seats, a significant decrease from the 365 seats they secured under Boris Johnson in the 2019 election.

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Such an outcome would shatter all previous benchmarks, plunging the Tories to a new record low, far beneath their historic minimum of 141 seats achieved in 1906 during Arthur Balfour's leadership.

This projection places Sir Keir Starmer's Labour Party in a strong position to secure 425 seats, significantly surpassing the 202 seats they achieved in the 2019 election. This would set a new record for the most seats won by Labour since the party's inception in the early 20th century.

Sir Tony Blair achieved a high of 418 seats in the 1997 election.

Under this forecast, the Liberal Democrats are projected to secure 67 seats, which is a significant increase, amounting to six times the seats they captured in 2019.

This number would surpass all previous records since the creation of the Lib Dems, the highest of which was established in 2005 under the leadership of Charles Kennedy.

Under the current forecast, John Swinney's SNP is expected to secure only 20 seats, a significant decrease from the 48 seats Nicola Sturgeon captured in the previous general election.

Nigel Farage's Reform Party is expected to secure five seats, while the Green Party is projected to win two seats and Plaid Cymru is poised to capture four seats.

Since the release of the last YouGov MRP on June 3, the polling firm has adjusted its predictions in 59 constituencies.

The Conservative Party has lost 32 seats, whereas the Labour Party has seen an increase of three seats according to this forecast. Additionally, the Liberal Democrats have gained 19 seats, the Scottish National Party has increased by three, and Plaid Cymru

Under the latest forecast, the Reform Party has secured five seats, a significant improvement from earlier predictions by YouGov which suggested they would not win any. This tally includes Mr. Farage's victory in Clacton.

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The MRP survey indicates that well-known figures could face defeat on the night of the elections.

According to this forecast, about 15 out of the 27 cabinet members who are contesting in the election are expected to be defeated.

The latest members of the cabinet to step down include Victoria Atkins, the Secretary of State for Health; Lucy Frazer, the Secretary of State for Culture; Richard Holden, the Chair of the Conservative Party; and Michael Tomlinson, who serves in the cabinet as the Minister for Immigration.

This expands to include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, and Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons.

It is anticipated that 29 out of the 45 ministers participating in the election will be defeated. Those expected to lose their seats include Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, Chris Philp, the minister for crime, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, the foreign office minister, and Greg Hands, the minister of trade.

Prominent Conservative figures such as Robert Jenrick in Newark and Caroline Nokes in Romsey and Southampton North were also among the significant losses for the party.

A member of the Labour shadow cabinet, Thangam Debbonaire, is poised to see her Bristol West seat taken by the Green Party.

What does MRP poll stand for?

As we approach the general election scheduled for July 4, you'll likely hear the term MRP frequently mentioned.

An MRP survey, an acronym for multilevel regression and post-stratification, is particularly appealing to analysts due to its extensive data utilization, encompassing a substantial sample size and supplementary details such as geographic areas.

MRP surveys begin by questioning a broad, representative group of individuals about their voting intentions. Pollsters then merge these responses with demographic data from various electoral districts. This process enables them to predict voting outcomes in each district nationwide, despite potentially having minimal or no direct responses from some areas.

This can be segmented into smaller subgroups to analyze the voting intentions in various regions. Instead of broadly assuming uniform behavior across all constituencies, this approach recognizes that each constituency is unique, with local dynamics and issues potentially influencing the outcome.

MRP analysis fails to consider highly localized variables, like the shutdown of a major facility or employer in an area, or controversies tied to a specific political contender.

It relies heavily on conjecture and approximation, and several contests remain too uncertain to predict confidently. It merely offers a momentary glimpse into public sentiment, which can shift significantly during an election period. Nonetheless, it provides a deeper insight into potential outcomes of the general election compared to other, more broad-based surveys.

There are currently 109 seats categorized as too close to call.

If the Conservatives managed to win every competitive and narrowly contested seat where they are currently trailing, according to this survey, Labour would nonetheless retain a majority of 132 seats. In such a case, the Conservatives would secure 153 seats, marking their poorest showing ever and significantly trailing Labour's performance in the 2019 election when led by Jeremy Corbyn.

The estimated vote percentages suggested by this MRP indicate that Labour is leading with 39%, followed by the Conservatives at 22%, Reform UK at 15%, the Liberal Democrats at 12%, and the Green Party at 7%.

This indicates that both the number of seats and the overall majority held by Labour have increased, despite a three-point decrease in their projected vote share since early June. The significant gainers here are Reform, which has risen from 10% to 15%, and the Liberal Democrats, who have seen an increase from 11% to 12%.

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The survey for the forecast took place from the previous Tuesday to this Tuesday, involving online interviews with 39,979 respondents: 36,161 from England and Wales, and 3,818 from Scotland.

The text implies that the Conservative Party could mainly represent the southeast, southwest, and eastern regions of England. There is a significant risk that the party might face complete or almost complete elimination in the northeast, Wales, and the northwest.

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