Bagnaia’s Mandalika Struggles Cast Shadow Over Title Defence as Martin and Bastianini Shine

Report: Pecco Bagnaia’s Struggles at Mandalika Persist

The reigning world champion's efforts to retain his title face additional setbacks following a challenging Friday at Mandalika.

Amid all the discussions about the dramatic final lap at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix last weekend, another significant event from that race has been mostly ignored: Francesco Bagnaia’s bid to retain his title is now uncertain.

The seventh time this season that the factory Ducati rider did not finish a race surpasses the number of zero-score finishes from his championship-winning seasons in 2022 and 2023. Upon closer examination, there's a concerning issue facing Bagnaia.

In 2022, Bagnaia made a remarkable comeback from being 91 points behind during the summer break to ultimately defeat Fabio Quartararo in the final race in Valencia. Quartararo, meanwhile, was struggling with a Yamaha that was falling behind its competitors, while the Desmosedici found its optimal performance. In many respects, Quartararo’s position to defend his 2021 title was unexpected.

In the previous year, Jorge Martin didn't make significant progress in the championship race until the latter half of the season. Although he wasn't struggling, Bagnaia should have had a much larger advantage over Martin, who was racing for Pramac and had no prior experience contending for a MotoGP title, than he ended up having.

This does not diminish Bagnaia's accomplishments.

Given the events of this year, the margin for recovering from significant mistakes has diminished. Martin has made his share of errors. He crashed while leading the races in Spain and Germany, where Bagnaia emerged victorious. Additionally, a strategic mistake in the San Marino GP didn’t help his situation, and a fall during the Mugello sprint cost him more points.

Since the summer vacation, Martin has shown consistent performance. The Pramac team member has accumulated 129 points since the British Grand Prix, whereas Bagnaia has earned 79 points over the same period. This is a significant change from the earlier five rounds, where Bagnaia had secured 147 points compared to Martin's 120.

Following the Emilia Romagna race, the difference in points between them has increased to 24, a significant rise from just four points after the sprint race. This gap could have remained as narrow as eight points if Bagnaia had been content with finishing third in Misano last weekend.

Martin might be growing increasingly frustrated with frequently ending up in second place on Sundays and not having won a grand prix since the race in Le Mans back in May. However, maintaining steady performance during these uncertain concluding rounds will be crucial.

The leading four riders in the Championship have successfully advanced to Q2 following the practice sessions in Mandalika, Indonesia. Bastianini and Martin are currently showing the most promise this weekend. #MotoGP #IndonesianGP

Mandalika challenges

This seems particularly accurate following the opening day of the Indonesian Grand Prix.

Enea Bastianini, the victor of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, set a new lap record with a time of 1 minute and 29.630 seconds. Close behind, Martin secured second place with a time of 1 minute and 29.670 seconds. Bagnaia finished in fourth, clocking 1 minute and 29.712 seconds, a commendable effort considering the challenging conditions he faced on Friday afternoon.

Bagnaia is familiar with making comebacks at Lombok, as he demonstrated last year by winning the grand prix despite starting 13th on the grid after Martin's crash. However, this Friday, the challenges of 2023 resurfaced as he struggled to maintain his speed.

“We were experimenting with different things, but I didn’t feel comfortable on the right side and had a hard time pushing,” Bagnaia said after Friday’s session.

The issue resolved itself after he switched to the soft rear tire. However, this is unlikely to be the choice for the grand prix, as most competitors opted for the medium tire last year. Bagnaia dedicated significant effort to testing the medium rear tire, completing 14 laps on this compound over several runs during the second practice session.

The quickest time recorded was 1 minute and 31.367 seconds. When this is compared to Bastianini, who posted a best lap of 1 minute and 30.625 seconds after 15 laps on the same type of tire, and Martin, who clocked in at 1 minute and 30.549 seconds after 14 laps, it underscores the challenges Bagnaia is facing.

The gap in average race speed between Bagnaia, his main title contender, and a team-mate who is still in contention for the championship persists.

After analyzing a seven-lap average, excluding non-representative times and cancelled laps, Bastianini’s speed was 1m31.066s. On the other hand, Martin’s pace, averaged over eight laps, was nearly identical at 1m31.103s.

Bagnaia, evaluating his performance over an average of four laps due to the erratic quality of his medium tyre runs, recorded a pace of 1 minute and 31.627 seconds. This was 0.561 seconds slower than his teammate Bastianini and 0.524 seconds behind Martin.

When questioned about his performance, Bagnaia confidently responded: "In the longer race, I noticed Enea and Martin were posting excellent lap times. Frankie [Morbidelli] was also impressive this morning. Therefore, I believe we are more aligned with their performance than what occurred today, so I don't want to dwell too much on today's events."

On Friday, Morbidelli clocked the third fastest time, with an average lap time of 1 minute and 31.081 seconds on the medium rear tire. However, he only completed five laps with that tire before switching to a new soft rear tire for another eight laps. As a result, his actual performance level remains uncertain based on Friday's session.

Martin and Bastianini Hold the Upper Hand

Bagnaia's challenge lies in that Martin and Bastianini have already mastered the medium tire. While Bagnaia is expected to perform well in qualifying and could be competitive in the sprint race thanks to the use of the soft tire, he must significantly improve his performance on the medium tire to contend with Bastianini and Martin.

This doesn't mean it's impossible. Bagnaia has frequently recovered on Sundays after challenging weekends. As a two-time world champion, he often showcases his skills when facing tough situations.

Bagnaia might find some comfort in his teammate Bastianini's performance at the Emilia Romagna GP.

The #23 racer lagged behind Martin and Bagnaia in terms of long-distance speed after last Friday's session at Misano. During the sprint, he couldn't really challenge them. However, after spending a late Saturday night analyzing the data from his fellow Ducati riders, he made significant improvements for the main race.

Although Bagnaia won't want to "relive the nightmare" of the 2023 Indonesia event as he goes to sleep tonight, he and Ducati can still learn from the experience.

On Friday, Martin described his racing speed as “impressive” and noted that his lap times seemed to come “naturally” to him. This was also the case for him last year, although he ended up crashing while leading the grand prix by a significant margin. It's likely that this memory will surface at some point, especially if the media doesn’t bring it up first.

Should Bagnaia's struggles persist during the grand prix, Martin will realize the significant chance he has. Facing off against Bastianini, provided he stays at the forefront this weekend, will challenge Martin to maintain a broader perspective.

Ultimately, it might be challenging for Martin to control his ego if he has the chance to seek retribution for Misano.

Bastianini's impressive performance against both Martin and Bagnaia further enhances his reputation as a title contender. If Bagnaia continues to face difficulties, Bastianini could assist him by taking points away from Martin, although this would also reduce the points difference between Bastianini and his fellow Ducati factory team rider.

Marc Marquez had a relatively quiet Friday, which didn't provide much indication that he won't be a significant contender in the front-running battle at Mandalika, despite his strong performance on a similar low-grip track at Aragon.

Nevertheless, following the Emilia Romagna GP, the Gresini rider suggested that the difference between the GP23 and the GP24 could become more pronounced in some of the upcoming races.

A contributing factor will be the GP24's ability to fully utilize the grip provided by Michelin's 2024 rear tire. In contrast, the GP23 frequently faces challenges as the increased rear grip tends to push the front end when cornering and braking.

Therefore, although the championship won't be decided in Indonesia, the events of the upcoming weekend are expected to provide significant insights into how the final stages of the title race will develop.

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