Bagnaia’s Mandalika Struggle: Title Defense Trembles as Rivals Shine

Insight: Pecco Bagnaia's struggles in Mandalika continue

The reigning world champion's attempt to defend his title encounters more obstacles following a challenging Friday in Mandalika

Amidst the discussions surrounding the final lap excitement at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix last weekend, there's been a significant oversight: Francesco Bagnaia's championship defense now appears to be in jeopardy.

The Ducati team's lead racer has recorded his seventh did-not-finish (DNF) for the season, surpassing the number of non-scoring instances from his championship-winning years in 2022 and 2023. Digging deeper, there's a concerning aspect for Bagnaia to reflect on.

In 2022, Bagnaia remarkably overcame a 91-point gap during the summer hiatus to surpass Fabio Quartararo by the season's end in Valencia. However, Quartararo faced challenges as the Yamaha he rode struggled to keep pace with competing bikes, while Bagnaia's Desmosedici significantly improved its performance. Considering these circumstances, it was somewhat unexpected for Quartararo to be in contention to retain his 2021 title.

In the previous season, Jorge Martin only started to significantly compete in the championship during its latter half. While he wasn't exactly struggling, Bagnaia could have maintained a larger lead over the Pramac racer, considering Martin had no previous experience battling for the MotoGP title.

This in no way diminishes the accomplishments of Bagnaia.

Given the developments throughout this year, the margin for rectifying significant mistakes has diminished. Martin has made several missteps. He failed to finish in the leading position at both the Spanish and German Grand Prix due to crashes, events that saw Bagnaia emerge victorious. Additionally, a tactical error during the San Marino Grand Prix worked against him, and an unfortunate fall during the Mugello sprint race further eroded his points tally.

Since the summer hiatus, Martin has shown consistent performance. Competing for Pramac, he has accumulated 129 points since the British Grand Prix, outperforming Bagnaia who has gathered 79 points in the last five races. This marks a significant shift from the earlier five races where Bagnaia had collected 147 points, overshadowing Martin's 120.

Following the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, the point difference has expanded to 24, an increase from the previous margin of four after the sprint race. This gap could have remained at a minimal eight points if Bagnaia had chosen to secure a third-place finish at Misano the prior weekend.

Martin appears to be growing exasperated with his recent streak of landing in second place during Sunday races, with his last win dating back to the Le Mans race in May. However, maintaining steady performances in these uncertain concluding rounds will be crucial.

The leading quartet in the Championship standings have all successfully advanced to Q2 following the practice session in Mandalika, Indonesia 🇮🇩. At this stage, Bastianini and Martin are emerging as the frontrunners of the weekend 👀 #MotoGP #IndonesianGP pic.twitter.com/OwC86Vra68

The challenges at Mandalika seem particularly evident following the opening day of the Indonesian Grand Prix.

Enea Bastianini, the victor of the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, set a new lap record with a blistering time of 1m29.630s, narrowly outpacing Martin, who clocked in at 1m29.670s for second place. Bagnaia secured the fourth spot with a time of 1m29.712s, managing a significant recovery during a challenging Friday afternoon session.

Bagnaia is well-acquainted with making comebacks on the Lombok track, as he previously soared from 13th place to victory in last year's grand prix following Martin's accident. However, this year's Friday session proved to be a stark contrast, with Bagnaia facing what he termed the "nightmare" of 2023, as he struggled to find his usual speed.

"Bagnaia shared that during Friday's session, despite their efforts, he faced significant challenges with pushing forward on the right side, feeling quite unwell."

The issue resolved once he switched to the soft rear tire. However, this option might not be popular for the grand prix, as the medium tire was the choice for many last year. Bagnaia extensively tested the medium rear tire, completing 14 laps on this compound over several sessions in the second practice.

The quickest time recorded was 1 minute and 31.367 seconds. When this is measured against Bastianini's performance on an equally aged tyre after 15 laps, and Martin's after 14 laps, it underscores the challenges faced by Bagnaia. On a medium tyre that had been used for 15 laps, Bastianini clocked a swift 1 minute and 30.625 seconds, and Martin, after 14 laps, even faster at 1 minute and 30.549 seconds.

On a typical race pace, the gap persists between Bagnaia, his main competitor for the championship, and a team-mate who is still close enough to vie for the title.

After analyzing a seven-lap average (excluding non-indicative times and disqualified laps), Bastianini recorded a pace of 1 minute and 31.066 seconds. Similarly, Martin's performance, calculated over an eight-lap average, was closely matched at 1 minute and 31.103 seconds.

Over a four-lap span, Bagnaia's performance on the medium tire was notably variable, resulting in an average time of 1 minute and 31.627 seconds. This placed him 0.561 seconds behind his teammate Bastianini and 0.524 seconds slower than Martin.

Bagnaia remained confident under scrutiny, asserting, "Looking ahead to the extended race, I observed Enea and Martin delivering impressive rounds. Frankie [Morbidelli] was also remarkable this morning. Therefore, I believe our performance aligns more closely with theirs rather than today's results, so I prefer not to dwell on today's events."

Interestingly, Morbidelli secured the third quickest time on Friday, recording an average speed of 1m31.081s on the medium rear tire. Yet, he completed just five laps on this tire before switching to a soft rear tire for another eight laps, with both sets of tires being fresh at the outset. Consequently, Morbidelli's actual speed remains uncertain following Friday's sessions.

Advantage for Martin and Bastianini

Bagnaia's challenge is that Martin and Bastianini have already adapted well to using the medium tyre. While Bagnaia is expected to perform well in qualifying and possibly contend in the sprint race that uses the soft tyre for its shorter distance, he must notably improve his performance with the medium tyre to compete effectively against Bastianini and Martin.

This doesn't mean it's out of the question. History has shown that Bagnaia has a knack for making a comeback during Sundays after facing challenges throughout the weekend. Being a two-time world champion, his exceptional skills tend to shine through especially when he's under pressure.

Bagnaia may find some comfort in team-mate Bastianini's performance at the Emilia Romagna GP.

Rider number 23 lagged considerably behind Martin and Bagnaia in terms of long-run speed following last Friday's session in Misano. In the sprint, he hardly posed a challenge to them. However, dedicating Saturday night to analyzing the data from his Ducati peers enabled him to make significant progress for the grand prix.

As Bagnaia prepares to rest tonight, he'll be eager to avoid revisiting the distressing memories of Indonesia 2023. However, it serves as a valuable learning experience for him and the Ducati team to reflect upon.

On Friday, Martin described his race speed as "remarkable," mentioning that his lap times felt "effortless." This sense of ease was also present last year, despite him exiting the grand prix due to a crash while in the lead. This memory might resurface for him, especially if the press doesn't bring it up first.

Should Bagnaia's struggles persist during the grand prix, Martin will be fully aware of the significant chance he stands to gain. In the face of another showdown with Bastianini, assuming he maintains his leading position this weekend, it will challenge Martin's capacity to understand the overall situation.

Ultimately, managing pride could prove challenging for Martin if he's presented with an opportunity to retaliate for what happened at Misano.

Securing another impressive performance against Martin and Bagnaia could further elevate Bastianini's championship prospects. If Bagnaia continues to face challenges, his teammate could aid him by scoring points over Martin, although this could also result in a reduced margin between the two main Ducati racers.

On a relatively uneventful Friday, Marc Marquez showed few signs of being a dominant force in the lead fight at Mandalika, contrary to expectations based on his commanding performance on a similar low grip track at Aragon.

Nonetheless, the Gresini racer mentioned following the Emilia Romagna GP that the difference between the GP23 and GP24 models might increase in the remaining races.

The ability of the GP24 to fully leverage the traction provided by Michelin's 2024 rear tire will play a significant role, as the GP23 frequently faces challenges with the more adhesive rear causing the front to be forced into corners during braking.

Thus, although the championship won't be secured in Indonesia, the events of the upcoming weekend are expected to provide significant insights into the dynamics of the title race…

Explore Further

Sign up for our MotoGP Newsletter

Stay updated with the newest MotoGP updates, exclusive content, one-on-one interviews, and special offers delivered straight to your email.

For additional details, please refer to our Privacy Policy.

Recent Updates

Additional Updates

Website Navigation

Crash.Net

©1999-2024 Crash Media Group

Reproducing the content, including text, photos, or images, either in full or in part, is strictly prohibited.