AI’s Promised Land: Sam Altman’s Vision of Prosperity and the Hard Reality of Technological Utopias

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Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has not wavered in his optimistic view of artificial intelligence's role in future human progress, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize and greatly benefit society. Despite his frequent discussions on the topic, Altman recently felt compelled to summarize his beliefs in a brief blog entry. He envisions an era he dubbs "The Intelligence Age" as a period marked by unprecedented prosperity. In his post, Altman suggests that this new age could lead to levels of shared wealth previously thought impossible, with the future holding the promise of an improved quality of life for all, surpassing our current understanding. He believes that, though these changes will be gradual, we will eventually witness remarkable achievements such as solving environmental issues, establishing human presence in outer space, and unlocking the mysteries of physics, all of which will become the new norm.

Perhaps he released this work to challenge the perspective that views the significant achievements of expansive language models merely as a mirage. He disputes this notion, emphasizing the substantial advancements AI has made due to the effectiveness of "deep learning," a point he elaborated on in a later interview. He critiqued skeptics who downplay the capabilities of technologies like OpenAI’s GPT-4, dismissing them as mere simplistic machines churning out sequential tokens. "When it begins to solve mathematical theorems that haven't been proven yet, are we still going to argue that it's only making token predictions?" he questioned.

Regardless of your opinion on Sam Altman, one thing is clear: he firmly believes that artificial general intelligence (AGI) – AI that equals and eventually surpasses human skills – will solve humanity's most pressing issues and herald a new era of prosperity. Let's refer to this idea as The Strawberry Shortcut, named after OpenAI's latest significant achievement in AI reasoning. This concept, much like the dessert it's named after, appears enticing at first glance but proves to be less fulfilling upon closer examination.

Altman astutely observes that technological advancements have democratized access to goods and services once considered exclusive luxuries, surpassing even what ancient pharaohs and nobility could enjoy. For instance, air conditioning was beyond the reach of Charlemagne. Today, individuals from various economic backgrounds, including the working class and those receiving welfare benefits, can own large-screen TVs, smartphones, dishwashers, and even enjoy the convenience of home-delivered pumpkin lattes and pet supplies. However, Altman's view overlooks a significant aspect of this narrative. Despite the abundance of wealth, not everyone benefits equally, with a considerable number of people facing homelessness or extreme poverty. Echoing William Gibson’s sentiment, it seems paradise exists but is not accessible to all. This disparity isn't a failure of technology itself but rather our collective failure to distribute its benefits more equitably. This concern is likely to persist with the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), as the automation of numerous jobs could exacerbate these inequalities.

Altman has not provided clear details about the future when many of our existing professions become obsolete, similar to the fate of 18th-century lamplighters. However, a glimpse into his perspective emerged during a podcast this week where tech giants and notable personalities shared their Spotify playlists. Altman's choice of the song “Underwater” by Rüfüs du Sol was meant to honor Burning Man, an event he has frequented. He describes the festival as a glimpse into what life could be like after the advent of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), highlighting a community where the focus is on mutual support, care, and the exchange of extraordinary gifts.

Altman strongly supports the idea of a universal basic income (UBI), believing it could help mitigate the financial impacts of job losses. While the wealth generated by artificial intelligence could potentially make this idea workable, there's skepticism about whether wealthy individuals, or even those making a modest income, would be willing to adopt this approach. Despite Altman's positive experiences at Burning Man, there's controversy among some participants regarding a tax proposal targeted at individuals with a net worth exceeding $100 million, aimed at taxing some of their unrealized capital gains. The notion that these wealthy individuals, including those who have amassed fortunes through AI companies, would willingly contribute to funding UBI for others is met with doubt. Given that one of the major political parties in the US is already opposed to Medicaid, the prospect of them supporting UBI is even more uncertain, especially in the face of populist criticism.

I'm also skeptical about the alleged windfall expected once our major challenges are overcome. Let's accept for a moment that AI could indeed solve the greatest issues facing humanity. The real test for us humans will be in putting those solutions into practice, an area in which we have repeatedly fallen short. We don't require an advanced language model to inform us that war is a horrific ordeal and that we ought to avoid killing one another. Nevertheless, conflicts continue to occur.

The prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) finding solutions for diseases is thrilling. However, imagine if a breakthrough injectable treatment for Covid were discovered by OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic tomorrow. It's predictable that significant numbers of people would claim it's a devious scheme for mass extermination. Similarly, despite knowing the measures to counter the climate crisis, our energy consumption is on the rise. Altman imagines investing trillions in sustainable fusion energy facilities. Yet, even if AI lays out a plan to achieve this, companies like Exxon and OPEC could potentially sabotage these efforts.

Altman's own enterprise serves as a prime example of how even the most meticulously planned strategies can fail. This week, his company experienced the sudden departure of several crucial staff members. Altman now stands as one of the only two original founders left out of the initial 11. Among those leaving was CTO Mira Murati, who stated her departure was to "create the time and space to do my own exploration." Murati’s contributions were pivotal, with partners like Microsoft from OpenAI’s key collaborations praising her efforts in facilitating their joint work. Furthermore, there have been reports this week suggesting that OpenAI is considering transitioning into a standard for-profit business. Initially, OpenAI was established as a nonprofit, but it later restructured the majority of its operations into a commercial venture to secure funding for its projects. This move was a compromise that introduced some friction, which the transition aims to alleviate. However, it’s crucial to recall that OpenAI was founded with the intent to prevent the monopolization and control of AGI by profit-driven entities, a concern sparked by the founders in 2015 who wanted to avoid repeating the mistakes of fossil fuel companies, which prioritized profits over environmental responsibility.

I don't oppose AI, and I concur with Altman that it's nonsensical to write off this remarkable advancement in technology as mere sleight of hand. I share Altman’s optimism about its potential to enhance numerous facets of our existence. However, our opinions diverge beyond this point. While Altman foresees minor obstacles and believes in the triumph of human goodness, the narrative of humanity, including its most beautiful moments, is marked by the battle between virtue and the formidable forces that create suffering. The tragic part is how often virtue is defeated. This makes it jarring when Altman takes what I call the "Strawberry Shortcut" by claiming, “The future is going to be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now.” Altman would benefit from reading Voltaire, or at the very least, consulting GPT-4o about whether Voltaire's overly optimistic character, Pangloss, was actually wise. He would discover this: “Pangloss's refusal to critically engage with the world and his unwavering commitment to his philosophy render him a subject of mockery rather than admiration.”

Renowned artificial intelligence researcher Danny Hillis had an ambition to create a computer that would admire him. Should we manage to create Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within the next several years, as foreseen by Altman, one wonders if it would approve of our actions. It's more probable that upon reviewing current events, it would react in a way that could be likened to a computerized version of disgust. The inherent issue of humanity, with all its magnificent and disgraceful aspects, is something AI might never overcome. That is, unless the AGI concludes that ushering in an era of true intelligence necessitates eliminating mankind.

Temporal Exploration

I was unable to pinpoint the exact moment when Danny Hillis first discussed the idea of creating a computer that would look upon him with pride. However, I referenced his remark in the preamble to a discussion I facilitated between Hillis and the iconic computing pioneer Alan Kay. (In reality, I merely observed as these intellectual giants exchanged ideas.) This conversation was featured in WIRED three decades ago, and considering our current understanding of artificial intelligence, it appears remarkably insightful and forward-looking.

Hillis reflected on his initial experiences at the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab, describing it as a period of optimism where language processing systems appeared promising and suggested that continuous efforts in the same vein might lead to the creation of machines capable of thought. However, he noted a plateau where advancements stalled due to increasing complexity and fragility in the systems, a barrier that has largely remained up to today. The progress in understanding natural language hasn't significantly surpassed the achievements of that earlier era. This situation could lead one to believe that achieving artificial intelligence is an unattainable goal. Marvin Minsky, who remains dedicated to the pursuit of AI, has concluded that the human brain is intricately complex, potentially suggesting the futility of trying to replicate it. Yet, Hillis also presents an alternative perspective, suggesting that the current methodologies in AI research might not be sufficient, rather than the goal of AI itself being unachievable.

Kay: The issue is that no one understands an alternative method. However, that shouldn't discourage you from attempting it.

Hillis believes that to develop a machine capable of thought, we must tackle the challenge of creating systems more intricate than our current comprehension allows. This necessitates a departure from traditional engineering methods. According to him, the sole viable approach for achieving this is through mimicking the process of biological evolution.

Elijah inquires, "As we near the 18th year since the release of "The Perfect Thing," a book you wrote focusing on how iPods influenced culture, considering the current dominance of smartphones and the shift in the music industry towards streaming platforms, do you see your work as obsolete or visionary?"

Thank you for your question, Elijah, and for highlighting that particular anniversary, even if it's not a traditional milestone. I'd like to point out that this year marks the 40th anniversary of my publication, Hackers, and the 30th of Insanely Great, which delves into the transformative impact of the Macintosh computer and its user interface. These books can be found in online bookshops everywhere. The book I wrote about the iPod stands out from my previous works—it consists of in-depth essays that are each compelling on their own. These essays cover topics such as the evolution of personal music listening experiences, starting with a brief history of Sony's Walkman, the connection between our music, the devices we listen to it on, and our personal identities, the concept of 'coolness,' the origins of podcasting, and the story behind the creation of a device that has not only thrilled its users but also become a significant cultural icon.

It may not come as a shock to learn that while the iPod itself may be considered a relic of the past, I believe the narrative anticipates the future—not just with the advent of the iPhone but also in how our fascination with sleek gadgets influences us. When it comes to forecasting, The Perfect Thing delves into many aspects of what we now recognize as today's streaming culture, often referred to as the "celestial jukebox" phenomenon.

One particular challenge involves the way a vast collection of songs is shuffled. I found it puzzling that, despite having thousands of songs on my iPod, tracks by Steely Dan seemed to play disproportionately often compared to their actual share of my music library. This issue, which I discussed in both Newsweek and a subsequent book, resonated with many who shared similar experiences. There was even scholarly research conducted on this odd occurrence. Steve Jobs himself had an engineer reassure me of the iPod's shuffle feature's randomness. However, faced with a widespread outcry from listeners plagued by repetitive tunes, the company introduced a feature named Smart Shuffle, designed to distribute artists more evenly. "Instead of debating the randomness, we opted to deliver the desired outcome," Jobs explained to me. This is an example of journalism sparking tangible change!

Send your inquiries to mail@wired.com. Please include "ASK LEVY" in the email subject.

End Times Chronicle

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In Conclusion

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