Unpacking MotoGP 2024: The Impact of Removing Sprint Races on the Title Battle After Motegi

Examination: What the 2024 MotoGP Championship Fight Would Be Like Without Sprint Races Post-Motegi

The standings present a fascinating picture when sprint race outcomes are excluded.

With only four races remaining in MotoGP's second season featuring sprint events, the discussions about their value have mostly subsided.

At the conclusion of a turbulent 2023 season, the introduction of sprint races played a crucial role in maintaining the competitiveness of the title race up until the last round. Without these sprints, the grand prix outcomes alone would have seen Francesco Bagnaia secure the championship with ease.

The last time Crash.net evaluated the 2024 points standings without considering sprint race results, Bagnaia appeared to be the clear frontrunner for the championship.

Following the Austrian Grand Prix, the difference in points between Bagnaia and Jorge Martin was a mere five points. However, when the sprint race results were excluded, that difference expanded to 43 points.

Since the Austrian Grand Prix, five rounds have been completed, leaving only four more as the 2024 season approaches its conclusion.

In the lead-up to the Australian Grand Prix scheduled for next weekend, Martin holds a 10-point advantage over Bagnaia. This comes after the factory Ducati racer secured his fourth sprint and Grand Prix double of the season in Japan, marking his eighth victory in a grand prix event.

When examining the adjusted points that reflect only the results from the grands prix, it's evident that the championship race between the top two contenders has tightened since the Austrian event.

Rankings in the championship following 16 rounds, excluding points from sprints

1. Bagnaia has accumulated 279 points, down from the current 382.

2. Martin has gathered 261 points, compared to the current 392.

3. Bastianini stands at 226 points, with the current tally at 313.

4. M. Marquez has 216 points, while the current score is 311.

5. Binder holds 144 points, as opposed to the current 183.

6. Bezzecchi has earned 123 points, with the current total at 134.

7. Acosta has reached 118 points, compared to the current 181.

8. Di Giannantonio has 113 points, while the current figure is 134.

9. Vinales has 108 points, with the current score at 163.

10. A. Mar

Martin has managed to close the distance to Bagnaia, reducing it from 43 points to only 18 as the season progresses from Austria to Japan, without taking sprint points into account. Nonetheless, Bagnaia remains in the lead.

Although Bagnaia experiences a 28-point variation from his current standings in reality, the gap in points based solely on grand prix outcomes is merely eight.

In 2024, Bagnaia continues to be the top performer on Sundays, clinching his eighth grand prix win of the season in Japan. He is the first competitor to achieve this since Marc Marquez did so in 2019. Bagnaia now joins an exclusive group of renowned riders, including Jorge Lorenzo, Valentino Rossi, and Casey Stoner, who have also accomplished this remarkable achievement in a single season.

In 2024, Martin has secured just three victories, the most recent of which occurred in Indonesia. This win marked his first since the French Grand Prix back in May.

Since our last analysis following the Austria event, Bagnaia's championship lead, excluding sprint races, has decreased due to two DNFs at Aragon and Emilia Romagna. Since Aragon, Bagnaia has accumulated 61 points on Sundays, whereas Martin has collected 86 points. An ill-timed strategic decision during a short rain shower at the San Marino GP was a setback for Bagnaia. However, aside from that race, he has consistently finished in the top two positions at every grand prix after Austria and in all races except San Marino since the summer break.

Despite the DNFs, Bagnaia has achieved a string of impressive results in his last five races, including securing second place in San Marino, finishing third in Indonesia, and claiming victory in Japan.

As the last four grand prix races offer a total of 100 points, Martin faces a more challenging task to surpass Bagnaia in the rankings without considering sprint results. In contrast, Bagnaia only needs to close a 10-point gap with 148 points still up for grabs.

A significant reason for Bagnaia falling behind Martin is due to their lack of points. Bagnaia has not scored points in seven races this season, three of which occurred on Sundays in Portugal, Aragon, and the second Misano race. On the other hand, Martin has four races without points, but only two of these were on Sundays, specifically in Spain and Germany.

In third place, Enea Bastianini trails by a narrower margin of 53 points, rather than 79. However, with 100 points still available, Bastianini faces the possibility of being mathematically unable to challenge for the championship as soon as the race in Australia if Bagnaia manages to outscore him by 22 points.

Marc Marquez's prospects of remaining competitive have dwindled significantly, as he is trailing by 63 points. This means that Bagnaia only has to surpass him by 12 points in Australia to knock him out of the running.

In both the imagined scenario and the actual championship race, the leading two competitors are the central figures. What's noteworthy is that, in both cases, Ducati is assured of winning the riders' championship, as Brad Binder is no longer in the running for the title, whether or not the sprint points are factored in.

In this scenario without sprint races, Marco Bezzecchi's season appears more impressive than it truly is. Although he remains far from the level of competing for the championship as seen in 2023, he manages to secure sixth place in the standings without the inclusion of sprints. In 2024, he has only accumulated 11 points on Saturdays while navigating the challenging GP23.

What would the MotoGP rankings for 2024 appear like if grand prix outcomes were excluded? The points table based solely on sprint races significantly benefits Martin, whose performances on Saturdays continue to be outstanding in this period.

Current rankings in the championship after 16 rounds, not including results from the grand prix events.

1. Martin has a total of 131 points.

2. Bagnaia holds 103 points.

3. Marquez has accumulated 95 points.

4. Bastianini stands with

Following 16 rounds, his total sprint points have reached 131. This is an increase from 95 points since Austria, which was the last time we examined this statistic. Bagnaia has improved his performance in the sprints since then, boosting his score to 103.

Following the races in Austria, his total sprint points were 57, reflecting his four instances of not scoring during the initial part of the season's sprint races. Afterwards, he managed to gain just one point in Aragon. However, he secured a second-place finish at Misano 1 and achieved victories at Misano 2, Indonesia, and Japan. On the other hand, Martin finished second in Aragon, claimed victory at Misano 1, took second place at Misano 2, fell from the lead to finish 10th in Indonesia, and came in fourth in Japan.

This development places him 28 points ahead of Bagnaia in the rankings, with Marquez trailing by an additional eight points in third position. With 48 points still available across the last four sprint races, Martin will have his first opportunity to secure the championship title in Thailand.

Sprints have once more demonstrated their value in narrowing the championship race significantly. Despite this, the impressive performances of both Bagnaia and Martin at different stages in 2024 indicate that even with the rules from before 2023, the championship fight would remain exciting and competitive as it approaches its conclusion.

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