Thursday’s Election Crucial for Conservatives as Reform Party Gains Momentum

The performance of Reform in the upcoming Thursday elections will be crucial in deciding the future of the Conservative Party. According to our Sky News poll tracker, Nigel Farage's Reform Party is polling at 16.2%, slightly trailing the Conservatives who are at 20%.

Political correspondent @BethRigby

Sunday, June 30, 2024, 10:

For an enhanced video experience, it is recommended to utilize the Chrome browser.

In large numbers, thousands of backers of the Reform Party flocked to a sprawling auditorium in a Birmingham conference center on Sunday to listen to Nigel Farage.

Supporters arrived waving Union Jacks and holding up signs calling for reform. Some even wore red baseball caps featuring the phrase "Make Britain Great Again," aligning with the event's Trump-like style and atmosphere.

Mr. Farage made a dramatic entrance with blaring music, smoke effects, and fireworks, as he approached the podium in front of 5,000 attendees waving "it's time for Reform" signs. He delivered a speech asserting that Britain needed significant changes.

He declared that his party would emerge as the primary opposition force, criticizing entities he referred to as 'the establishment,' which included the Conservative and Labour parties, the BBC, Channel 4, and the Governor of the Bank of England.

Explore further:

Farage dismisses any possibility of aligning with the Conservative Party

Reform Party withdraws three candidates

Farage's address disrupted

Critics argue that Mr. Farage's agenda promotes subtle forms of divisive rhetoric that mainly serves to inflame tensions, yet it resonates with a significant number of voters—a fact that leaders of major political parties should not overlook.

Following the event, conversations with numerous individuals in the corridor revealed that they were predominantly ex-Conservative supporters who had become disenchanted with their previous political affiliation.

A woman who journeyed from Hull to participate in the rally expressed to me her belief that many "silent individuals might be scared to admit they support Reform."

"She anticipates it will be quite surprising," she remarked.

2024 marks the electoral opportunity for alternative political parties.

This election season, the emergence of alternative political parties is a significant trend. The Liberal Democrats, who secured only 11 seats in the 2019 elections, are aiming to reclaim their former prominence, reminiscent of the numbers they held in the 1940s and 1950s, prior to their dramatic loss of seats in 2015 following their time in a coalition government.

In the latest Sky News poll tracker, Nigel Farage's Reform Party is polling at 16.2%, slightly trailing the Conservative Party, which stands at 20%.

Recently, the Conservative Party trailed behind Reform UK in a national survey, marking the first instance of such an occurrence and plunging the Tories into a state of alarm and despondency.

Mr. Farage often suggests that Labour might achieve a sweeping victory with a smaller percentage of the total votes.

A recent review by the Financial Times indicates that the Labour Party might secure an unprecedented 450 seats, approximately 70%, with only 41% of the vote—a percentage even less than what Jeremy Corbyn's Labour managed in 2017. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to gain 50 seats despite having a smaller vote share than the Reform Party, which is likely to win only a handful of seats. Should these predictions hold true, expect significant uproar from Mr. Farage.

The key uncertainty in this election is whether voters who are currently undecided or slightly favoring the Reform party will remain loyal to them when voting on Thursday. The Conservative Party is anxious, aware that a substantial number of Reform votes in their districts might lead to their defeat.

In 2019, most Conservatives faced no right-wing challenge because the Brexit Party withdrew its candidates in districts where a pro-Brexit Conservative was running. They contested only 275 of the 632 seats.

In this election cycle, the influence of Reform is widespread, causing unease across the board: according to a survey, even James Cleverly’s constituency in Braintree, traditionally considered the 19th most secure seat for the Conservatives, is at risk with Reform gaining an estimated 22% of the vote share in this Essex district.

Conservatives in full-scale conflict

Initially, the Conservatives aimed to avoid conflict with Mr. Farage, likely concerned about driving away their core supporters. However, they are now fully engaged in a battle to retain as many parliamentary seats as possible.

On Sunday, the party declared that convincing approximately 130,000 voters, who are currently contemplating supporting either the Reform Party or the Liberal Democrats, to vote for the Conservatives instead could prevent a Labour supermajority.

Recently, the Prime Minister has been more outspoken in his objections to the Reform Party and its leader, Mr. Farage, as his party seeks strategies to regain voter support.

Mr. Sunak has openly criticized Mr. Farage, labeling him a "Putin appeaser" following the Reform leader's proposal that Ukraine should engage in peace negotiations—a suggestion Ukraine has strongly rejected, insisting that such talks can only occur if Russia withdraws from its land.

The prime minister expressed his deep frustration and pain in response to allegations, which Reform disputes, that a Channel 4 covert investigation captured a Reform campaign worker using a racial slur against Mr. Sunak.

Recent days have been challenging for Mr. Farage, as a Reform organizer's homophobic comments and the suspension of candidates for racist, antisemitic, and sexist remarks have added to his troubles.

For an enhanced video playback experience, it is recommended to utilize the Chrome browser

Signs of strain emerge around Farage

During our discussion in Birmingham this past Sunday, signs of strain were starting to emerge.

Initially, the politician who joined forces with prominent right-wing Conservatives like possible future leader Dame Priti Patel at the Conservative Party conference in October, and had flirted with the idea of rejoining the group, has now dismissed any possibility of an alliance.

Just a month after discussing a potential reverse takeover of the Conservative Party and leaving open the possibility of rejoining it someday, he definitively stated on Sunday that he would not be returning and wished to sever all ties with the Conservatives.

Following recent controversies, a number of prominent members, such as Dame Priti, have suggested that Mr Farage is unlikely to be reinstated into the party. This comes in the aftermath of his controversial remarks suggesting that Western actions provoked Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and amid the ongoing racism scandal surrounding Reform.

He was also more ambiguous than before regarding Andrew Tate, explicitly telling me that he "disavowed" him. Additionally, he expressed strong disapproval of Reform events organizer George James, who made homophobic comments. He told me he was "furious" after viewing the video (featured in the Channel 4 report) of Mr. James labeling the Pride flag as "degenerate" and condemning the police for showing the flag.

In the report, he stated, "They should be out apprehending the criminals instead of endorsing them."

Mr. Farage described Mr. James as "crass, drunken, rude, and incorrect," and he informed me that Mr. James had been requested to relinquish his membership. However, he admitted to having consumed several drinks himself, noting, "We can all say foolish things when we've had a bit too much to drink."

Stay ahead with the latest Breaking News

Download the Sky News application at no cost

Upon questioning whether such statements are commonly made under the influence, Mr. Farage responded, "When people are intoxicated, they can utter a variety of things and frequently forget them. However, it was dreadful."

In a surprising turn of events, a Reform candidate declared on Sunday evening their decision to withdraw from the race, opting to support the local Conservative representative in the Erewash district.

The challenge for Reform lies in whether prospective supporters, upon observing the disputes linked to the party, ultimately conclude that it does not align with their preferences.

It is evident that the outcome for the Reform party will significantly influence how the Conservatives fare when election results are revealed this Thursday night.

Should Mr. Farage triumph, he is poised to enter parliament, thereby not only expanding his reach across the nation but also acquiring a legitimate mandate. This development could pose significant challenges for a Conservative party that is already facing internal strife.

Associated Subjects

Footer for Sky News

Information about Sky News

Services Provided by Sky News

Channels on Sky

Additional Sky Websites