Strategic Moves and Surprises: How Party Leaders Are Positioning Themselves in the Final Stretch to Election Day

Campaign Trail Update: Party Leaders Intensify Efforts with Approaching Election Day

Sky News is monitoring the destinations that party leaders are visiting during the general election campaign, analyzing how these choices reflect the strategic approaches of their respective parties.

Authored by Dr. Hannah Bunting, Sky News elections analyst, and Joely Santa Cruz, data journalist

Saturday, June 29, 2024, 04:

This week, leaders from the major political parties delivered their concluding appeals to the electorate. The heads of Labour and the Liberal Democrats toured constituencies they are keenly aiming to win, whereas the Prime Minister adopted a broad strategy, campaigning even in traditionally secure Conservative areas.

Follow their travels this week on our dynamic map below.

This election is taking place under revised voting districts, which have seen considerable alterations from their 2019 configurations.

In this analysis, we refer to hypothetical outcomes calculated by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who are honorary professors at the University of Exeter. These calculations estimate how the 2019 election results might have looked under the newly drawn constituency boundaries.

Critical moment

As election day nears, the Conservative party is making a final push to regain the support of wavering voters and win over those who are still undecided. Meanwhile, the Labour party is focused on adhering to their planned strategies and steering clear of any blunders.

The Conservative Party is battling to prevent a possible overwhelming victory by the Labour Party and is contending with challenges on several fronts. Meanwhile, the leaders of both parties are cautious about losing support to minor parties or voter indifference, stemming from a perception that the outcome is predetermined.

Overview

The Conservative Party has faced a challenging five-week period, marked by numerous significant setbacks, including Sunak's D-Day blunder and escalating corruption claims linked to insider betting at Westminster.

This effort has not been effective in closing the gap in the polls, with the campaign consistently on the defensive. The Prime Minister has been touring constituencies where the Conservative party traditionally holds a 25% majority.

Approximately 88% of the 51 trips Rishi Sunak made to various constituencies were focused on areas where his party, the Conservatives, already holds seats. Out of these, 14 visits were to locations where the Liberal Democrats pose the greatest threat, while the other 34 were to areas where Labour is the main competitor.

Conversely, of the 44 constituency stops made by Starmer, 84% have been in locations that Labour aims to win. Except for four, these visits have all been to areas currently held by the Conservatives.

Labour faces the task of drumming up excitement for a government led by Starmer. On average, the key constituencies he has toured require a swing of 10.5 percentage points in votes to switch to Labour – slightly more than what Tony Blair accomplished in 1997.

To secure a majority, Labour needs to surpass this mark, requiring an unprecedented 12-percentage point swing from the Conservatives. Starmer has been campaigning in constituencies where the needed swing reaches up to 18 points.

The leader of the Labour Party has generally avoided the main electoral areas in the south contested mainly between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. However, he has made trips to regions in the South East, areas which only Tony Blair had successfully won over in the past.

Liberal Democrat chief Sir Ed Davey appears to be thoroughly enjoying the campaign trail, engaging in various high-profile antics such as taking rollercoaster rides and swimming in the Thames for photo opportunities.

He has made campaign stops in 39 constituencies that the Liberal Democrats are aiming to capture, focusing primarily on Conservative strongholds, but also including one district each currently under Labour and SNP control.

How does the physical conflict compare to its online counterpart?

Digital campaign reporter

Based on insights from Who Targets Me, Sky’s collaborator on the Online Campaign Team, we now have a comprehensive understanding of the strategies employed by the two major parties in their use of political ads on social media platforms.

The Conservative Party has consistently lagged behind the Labour Party in both spending and the volume of advertisements posted, which is an expected correlation.

Tom King of Who Targets Me observes a lack of clear direction in the ongoing campaign, noting, "It seems there's no overarching plan, with each constituency left to fend for itself."

Labour has continued its widespread advertising campaign, with a notably different tone in its commercials.

They primarily concentrate on Labour and its key theme: 22 percent of their over 5,500 ads have featured the slogan "Change."

The Conservative Party has taken a decidedly more critical tone. A striking 83 percent of their advertisements reference the Labour Party, while a mere 1 percent feature their leader, Rishi Sunak. This clearly indicates a defensive strategy.

Concealed in full view

A common element in the strategies of both major political parties is their hesitance to expose their leaders to public appearances or large gatherings.

Rishi Sunaksi has visited numerous business venues, often encountering modestly sized gatherings. It was disclosed early in his campaign that at one event, individuals who were presented as ordinary citizens turned out to be Conservative councillors.

Sir Keir Starmer has leveraged his connections with football by touring two stadiums, one of which was Northampton Town, this week, though he has primarily participated in tightly controlled events.

Discover further: Insight – Sunak's irritation regarding the gambling controversy reveals much. What are the voting tendencies of Britain's ethnically varied populations?

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Reform Party's Nigel Farage, known for his ease with public gatherings, kicked off his campaign seated at a pub bench in Clanton. This week, he returned to a familiar scene in Newton Abbot, drawing a crowd of 1,500 people on Monday. This town previously housed the headquarters of UKIP during its peak years.

Sir Ed Davey, heading the Liberal Democrats, has been highly visible in his numerous campaign activities.

The Green Party stands out as the sole political group that has effectively leveraged the support of celebrities. Recently, they secured endorsements from notable figures including chef Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall and actor Hugh Grant.

Raising the stakes

This week, the constituency stops for the leaders of the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties have notably varied.

Sir Keir Starmer has set his sights on progressively challenging goals, making a stop in Northwest Leicestershire this week—a constituency needing an 18-point swing for a Labour victory, marking the most demanding target he has tackled to date.

In the last stretch of the campaign, Sir Ed Davey has been focusing on constituencies where the Liberal Democrats require an average swing of 17 points to win, an increase from the 12-point swing needed the week before.

The prime minister's approach has shown variability. Reflecting the diverse voter base assembled by Johnson and now maintained by Sunak, his tours have ranged from the most fiercely contested areas to those with traditionally strong majorities.

Famous locations

In the past 37 days, the leaders of the three major English parties have traveled to 119 different constituaries, totaling 135 visits. This means they have reached more than 18% of the UK's electoral districts, with Sunak, Starmer, and Davey leading the charge.

The constituencies that received the highest number of visits, each being visited three times, are Redcar in the North East, Wimbledon in London, and Richmond & Northallerton in Yorkshire, which is Sunak's own constituency.

Stay updated on the most recent developments from the UK and globally by tuning into Sky News.

Redcar, a constituency that Sunak has visited twice and Starmer once, is currently a Conservative stronghold. Here, the Conservative candidate, who is also a minister, appears to be at risk of losing to Labour

Davey is targeting the highly competitive Wimbledon seat in London, a location the Liberal Democrats have never secured. He has made two visits there, in contrast to Sunak, who has campaigned there once for the Conservatives.

The Prime Minister has made three trips to his constituency, with the latest visit occurring this week. He holds a 46.9% majority, although some MRP polls suggest that he might be at risk of losing it.

Dr. Hannah Bunting serves as an elections analyst for Sky News and is also the co-director of The Elections Centre at Exeter University.

The Data and Forensic Unit at Sky News is a versatile team committed to delivering clear and accountable journalism. This group collects, examines, and represents data to craft stories that are driven by solid evidence. They utilize conventional journalistic techniques alongside sophisticated analysis of satellite imagery, social media, and various publicly available data sources. By employing multimedia narratives, they strive to enhance understanding of global events and provide insight into the journalistic process.

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