Speculation Swirls: Verstappen’s Potential Shift to Mercedes Tied to F1 2026 Seat Concerns

Speculation arises on why Max Verstappen might consider departing from Red Bull for Mercedes in 2025

A hypothesis has been proposed regarding Max Verstappen's potential desire to exit Red Bull when the year concludes.

It has been proposed that Max Verstappen might consider switching from Red Bull to Mercedes in 2025 if he believes he could lose the opportunity to secure a spot with the team in the 2026 F1 season.

Sky Sports' pitlane correspondent Ted Kravitz believes that the sole motive for Max Verstappen to potentially leave Red Bull prior to 2026 would be the apprehension of being overshadowed by Mercedes' young star Andrea Kimi Antonelli.

Verstappen has committed to staying with Red Bull through the 2028 season, emphasizing his desire to stay put even amid significant interest from Mercedes team leader Toto Wolff, who is on the lookout for someone to fill the void left by Lewis Hamilton as he heads to Ferrari next season.

Sources suggest that Verstappen's contract includes various opt-out provisions, allowing him the potential to leave Red Bull prematurely if he chooses. Additionally, there are rumors that the triple world champion harbors doubts regarding Red Bull's nascent engine initiative slated for 2026.

Sources indicate that Mercedes is leading the race in adapting to the Formula 1's upcoming engine regulations, fueling rumors that Verstappen might be considering a team change.

However, with indications that Mercedes is favoring the elevation of Formula 2 sensation Antonelli to its team for the 2025 season, and George Russell secured in his position until the conclusion of next year at the very least, the German automaker may not have space available.

"Max is free to depart under specific circumstances. One such circumstance is simply if he decides he wants to. Another factor hinges on the situation with Helmut Marko. Should Marko leave, then Max has the option to leave as well," Kravitz mentioned on the most recent Sky Sports F1 podcast episode.

The type of agreement that Sebastian Vettel held with Red Bull, which facilitated his move to Ferrari, is very similar to the contract Max Verstappen possesses. It includes mutual opt-out provisions.

Essentially, the primary concern for Max, as he contemplates his potential switch to Mercedes, particularly with the anticipation that Mercedes might have the upper hand with the 2026 regulations—a sentiment echoed by some within Verstappen's circle—is whether he should secure his position there promptly. The only obstacle in his path, assuming he decides to make the move, appears to be a 17-year-old Italian racer, Kimi Antonelli, whose future with the team remains uncertain as Toto Wolff has yet to make a definitive decision regarding his placement.

Therefore, if Max perceives a risk of losing his chance at securing a position and facing more challenges in 2026 due to Antonelli and [George] Russell being part of the team already, then that could be the sole reason for Max to potentially decide, by the close of this year or as it ends, or maybe even at the start of the next, to inform Helmut [Marko] of his departure, assuming that's his chosen method to exit. He might then express his desire to join Mercedes, stating that as his intended move.

"However, if he remains confident in his ability to compete with Red Bull Racing into 2025 and A) his worries regarding 2026 prove to be baseless, he could fulfill his contract term. Alternatively, B) if he believes there's a way to replace one of the Mercedes drivers and decides to switch teams in 2026, then theoretically, he could remain for 2025. But, that's a decision he needs to contemplate."

Nevertheless, Kravitz is firmly of the belief that Verstappen will remain with Red Bull for at least another season.

"There's a lot of speculation and theoretical scenarios being discussed, but I'm almost certain that Verstappen and Perez will continue with Red Bull next year, I'm 99% confident," he said in conclusion.

Guest commentator and Sky Sports analyst Bernie Collins stated: "Their argument will be that he's under contract until 2025, indicating that the position is already taken.

"It's understood that there are specific clauses in his agreement allowing for his departure should certain criteria be fulfilled. Looking ahead to 2025, it appears that he favors that position, considering the current car performances. However, there are uncertainties regarding 2026 due to upcoming regulatory changes."

"It's hard to envision him moving on, yet at the same time, Lewis's departure was unexpected as well."

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