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Red Bull’s Driver Shuffle: Ricciardo’s Exit, Perez’s Future, and Lawson’s Audition for a Key 2025 Seat

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The broader implications of Daniel Ricciardo's removal from the F1 team and its impact on Sergio Perez

Red Bull's choice to replace Daniel Ricciardo with Liam Lawson at their affiliated team RB marks an initial move in addressing their larger issue with their F1 driver lineup.

After the announcement on Thursday that Lawson will replace Ricciardo in the RB seat for the entirety of the 2024 season, the 22-year-old from New Zealand now has six races to prove himself worthy of a future position with Red Bull.

This tryout will probably decide if Lawson remains at RB with Yuki Tsunoda in 2025, and it might also impact the main Red Bull team.

In an interview with New Zealand's Newstalk ZB radio, Lawson mentioned that he has until the conclusion of this season to learn more about his future. Currently, he is focused on the six upcoming races.

In response to a question about what is necessary to obtain a full-time position for 2025, he stated: "Essentially, I need to deliver strong performances. I must demonstrate my value in Formula 1 and aim to replicate the level of work I did last year."

"That's what has provided me with this opportunity. Now, I just have to perform well enough to keep my position for next year."

Perez faces renewed pressure

The broader consequence of Ricciardo being sidelined is that Red Bull now has the opportunity to thoroughly assess Lawson's Formula 1 capabilities in comparison to Tsunoda.

This isn't Lawson's first experience in a similar situation. Last year, he replaced Ricciardo when the Australian driver injured his hand in an accident just two races into his return to Formula 1, after taking over Nyck de Vries' position.

In his five appearances, Lawson left a strong impression on Red Bull through his consistent and mature performances. The most notable moment occurred in Singapore, where Lawson made it to Q3 and secured a ninth-place finish, earning two points.

By this point, Red Bull had finalized their decision to have Ricciardo and Tsunoda as their drivers for 2024. Consequently, despite Lawson's strong performance, he would need to wait another year before getting a chance to compete.

Lawson is now receiving another opportunity to demonstrate his value, primarily to assist RB in maintaining their lead over Haas in the constructors’ championship. This situation adds more pressure on Sergio Perez, who hasn't been performing impressively.

Even though Perez inked a fresh two-year deal in early June, rumors about his future gained momentum over the summer due to a notable dip in performance. To put an end to the speculation, Red Bull deemed it necessary to confirm that Perez would complete the 2024 season.

Although the intention is for Perez to remain in his position until 2025, there is no certainty that he will complete the entire season, or even begin it.

Amid the buzz around Ricciardo’s departure from Formula 1, Perez had a tough race in Singapore, ending up in 10th place. Meanwhile, his teammate Max Verstappen secured a second-place finish, causing Red Bull to fall further behind McLaren in the constructors’ championship.

Christian Horner, the head of Red Bull, called on Perez to improve his performance, emphasizing that the team requires both drivers to be performing at their best. This statement served as a stark reminder to Perez, who will now be anxious about Lawson's progress.

Perez's spot at Red Bull had remained secure mainly due to the absence of clear alternatives, but Lawson's entry into RB will provide both him and the main team with something to consider.

Red Bull's driver conundrum for 2026

Ricciardo's unfortunate and somewhat uncomfortable departure from Formula 1 is a piece of a larger strategy for Red Bull. This move highlighted that he is not included in the team's future vision, and his aspirations of a dream comeback to Red Bull were merely wishful thinking.

Perez's recent underperformance is causing immediate concerns for Red Bull, but they also have a significant decision to make regarding their driver roster for 2026, aligning with the upcoming major changes in F1 regulations.

According to official records, there will be a vacancy for one seat next to Verstappen, who is contracted until the conclusion of 2028. However, discussions are ongoing about the future of the Dutch driver as well.

Verstappen remains a subject of speculation regarding a potential move to Mercedes, a team that has openly and persistently shown interest in him recently. Meanwhile, his confrontation with the FIA in Singapore over the penalty he received during a controversy involving profanity in F1 has sparked new discussions about the possibility of him retiring sooner than expected.

Horner has acknowledged that Red Bull will have to make some difficult decisions in the next year as they assess the potential of their drivers.

"We have to plan for the future," Horner shared with Sky Sports F1 in Singapore. "We have some promising talent, including Liam Lawson. However, when we compare him to others like Franco Colapinto, Ollie Bearman, and Kimi Antonelli, we're uncertain if he's on the same level. Time will reveal the answer."

"We have Isack Hadjar in Formula 2, who was leading the championship until recently. There's also an impressive young talent in Formula 3, Arvid Lindblad, who I am especially enthusiastic about. Our junior program has considerable depth. We want to carefully evaluate all our future options."

If Lawson manages to impress Red Bull sufficiently to secure a spot over Perez for the 2025 season or at any time in the next season, Isack Hadjar from Formula 2, Ayumu Iwasa from Super Formula, and potentially Arvid Lindblad from Formula 3 would be among the top contenders to advance to RB.

Horner emphasized that Red Bull is open to considering drivers outside their current roster, even mentioning George Russell as a possible candidate for 2026. This statement did not sit well with Mercedes' Toto Wolff.

"George Russell's contract is set to expire at the end of the next year, and it's important to keep that in mind," stated Horner. "There are also other skilled drivers who might be available as their contracts come to an end."

Horner seemed to suggest that the driver who has won two grand prix races might be Red Bull's backup plan if Verstappen decided to move to Mercedes. Mercedes is set to advance their highly-touted young driver, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, as Lewis Hamilton is expected to move to Ferrari. Whether Red Bull would go after Russell if Verstappen stays is still uncertain.

Regardless, considering the low probability of Perez receiving a new contract after his current one, Red Bull will almost certainly be in search of at least one new driver.

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