Rail Dilemma: Labour May Discourage Train Use as HS2 Cancellation Curbs Northern Capacity, NAO Reports

The National Audit Office suggests that Labour might need to deter train usage following Sunak's decision to scrap the northern extension of HS2, as reported after Rishi Sunak terminated the high-speed rail project beyond Birmingham last year.

Business reporter @pkelso

Tuesday, July 23, 2024, 6:

The government's fiscal watchdog has determined that Rishi Sunak's move to halt the HS2 rail extension from Birmingham to Manchester will decrease the number of available seats on trains heading to the North West and may also hinder economic expansion.

At the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester last October, Mr. Sunak sparked controversy by scrapping the extension of the high-speed rail line beyond Birmingham, criticizing the project as embodying a "false consensus".

Since that time, it has been planned for HS2 trains to transition from their high-speed tracks to the current lines north of Birmingham. However, an analysis by the National Audit Office indicates that this will lead to a reduction in capacity by up to 17% on the west coast line.

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The National Audit Office suggests that in order to control the number of passengers, the Department for Transport might need to deter train travel, potentially through raising fares. This approach would contradict the original purpose of expanding rail capacity.

The National Audit Office suggests that government officials might explore options to encourage individuals to commute during off-peak times or to avoid using trains altogether. This approach, however, could potentially limit economic expansion in the area over an extended period and elevate environmental expenses.

Expanding rail capacity through the use of longer trains would necessitate the construction of additional infrastructure such as new tracks and extended platforms at various stations, including Crevery. The National Audit Office considers this solution to be "costly and disruptive, causing disturbances on an already congested route."

The report from the oversight body indicates that discontinuing the proposed railway line from Birmingham to Manchester might lead to spending up to £100 million on restoration efforts. Additionally, approximately £592 million has already been expended on the acquisition of land and about 1,000 properties along the northern section, assets which will require several years to sell off.

Earlier this month, Sky News reported that individuals and businesses located along the second phase of the initial route received over £232 million in compensation. This amount represents more than 40% of the total compensation exceeding £550 million allocated for the entire project.

The report further discloses that Birmingham's new Curzon Street station will have four surplus platforms, as just three out of the initially intended seven will be utilized.

HS2 indicates that altering the current design and construction approach will incur higher costs than adhering to the original plan.

The future of the line's southern terminal at Euston Station remains in doubt, as it lacks defined parameters, financial support, or a management structure.

HS2 is set to conclude at a newly built station in Old Oak Common, located in northwest London, pending any future agreements to extend the line to Euston.

Mr. Sunak had planned for a private sector development company to finance the project, yet HS2 has not yet scheduled a date for trains to operate into central London.

Transport Secretary Louise Haigh stated, "We are currently examining the conclusions of this report, as well as the situation we've taken over regarding HS2 and other transport infrastructure. We will announce our future plans shortly."

Northern Powerhouse, which condemned the cancellation of both HS2 northern extensions, stated that Mr. Sunak's proposal did not allocate money for the necessary improvements to the current west coast route or east-west connections.

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Henri Murison, the leader of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, expressed his belief that the newly appointed transport secretary is well aware of the errors committed by the previous prime minister and his government in making financial promises to the North that were not backed by adequate funding due to poorly considered choices.

"I am fully confident that she will address this issue; a point that was also acknowledged by former mayor Andy Street and his colleague Andy Burnham when they called on the private sector to examine these matters last year."

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A representative from HS2 Ltd stated, "The project is incredibly large and complex, and the scrapping of phase 2 has compounded our financial difficulties."

"We are currently implementing comprehensive changes to enhance cost management and advance to the next phase of the project, which involves moving beyond the major construction activities between London and the West Midlands and beginning the transformation into an operational railway."

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A spokesperson for the Conservative Party stated: "According to the NAO report, several strategies were being evaluated to optimize the advantages of HS2 at the time our administration concluded. The decision on which of these strategies to implement will be made by the incoming government."

A major worry is the Labour Party's lack of commitment to a crucial £30 billion transport investment in the North and Midlands. This investment is expected to enhance both connectivity and economic development in the area, yet its cancellation was not mentioned in their manifesto.

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