Marquez Faces Uphill Battle for Misano Hat-Trick as Bagnaia and Martin Dominate Emilia-Romagna GP Practice

Analysis of lap times suggests Marc Marquez is unlikely to clinch another victory in Misano

Securing a third consecutive victory appears doubtful for Marquez following Friday's performance at the Emilia-Romagna MotoGP

The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix's second Friday session at Misano, which began with wet conditions, concluded with a scenario that seemed all too recognizable by the end of practice.

Francesco Bagnaia, after leading the practice session at the San Marino GP, continued his dominance into Friday's Emilia Romagna GP by setting a new lap record of 1 minute and 30.286 seconds. This performance placed him a significant 0.198 seconds ahead of the current championship frontrunner, Jorge Martin.

The rider from Pramac experienced a fall during the conclusion of the second practice session, yet easily clinched a spot straight into Q2. Following them, Marc Marquez, who triumphed in the previous two Grand Prix races, rode his Gresini Ducati to a time of 1m30.585s, placing him just ahead of Enea Bastianini on the equivalent factory team Desmosedici, who secured fourth place with a time of 1m30.607s.

Bagnaia, Martin, Marquez, and Bastianini all delivered impressive performances, standing out as the leading quartet 💥#MotoGP #EmiliaRomagnaGP

Separating the leading quartet from the others was a significant margin of 0.279 seconds, with Yamaha’s Fabio Quartararo emerging as the closest competitor to the 'big four' of MotoGP 2024.

For the first time since 2021, MotoGP is hosting two races at the same circuit within a single season. Usually, the second race at a given track tends to be more competitive. However, based on the Friday practice sessions for the 2024 Emilia Romagna GP, it seems this might not happen.

Indeed, projections suggest a competition divided into three distinct levels: Bagnaia and Martin battling it out for victory; Marquez and Bastianini vying for the last spot on the podium; and a separate contest among the remaining competitors.

On Friday at Misano, Bagnaia and Martin demonstrated excellent form in terms of race speed. The two competitors concentrated on utilizing the medium rear tire, identified as the preferred choice for the San Marino Grand Prix. Even with the forecast suggesting cooler weather for this Sunday's race, it's anticipated that this option will still be popular unless the track temperature drops significantly.

Bagnaia completed 13 laps using his medium rear tire, achieving his fastest lap time of 1m30.902s on the last lap that tire was utilized. When considering a six-lap average (excluding any disqualified or non-indicative lap times), Bagnaia maintained an average pace of 1m31.210s.

Martin completed 11 laps using a medium rear tire, clocking his quickest lap at 1 minute and 30.844 seconds on his final lap. When considering an average across six laps and removing any outliers, Martin's speed averaged out to 1 minute and 31.306 seconds. This was slightly behind Bagnaia's performance, but when projected over the entirety of a 27-lap race, their times are nearly identical.

At Misano on Friday evening, the two competitors expressed their satisfaction with the day's events in conversations with the press. Marc Marquez highlighted that improved grip conditions often allow the leading duo in the championship to advance beyond their rivals. However, Bagnaia mentioned feeling a lack of speed, attributing this to suboptimal grip at both the rear and front.

Heading into this weekend's race, Martin and Bagnaia are separated by a mere seven points following the San Marino GP, making it a pivotal moment for either rider to regain the upper hand in the championship race. This event marks the beginning of a crucial triple-header series, which will also see them compete in Indonesia and Japan.

During the initial race at Misano, securing a good position on the track was key. Despite Bagnaia's pole position start, Martin managed to overtake him right from the start, moving up from fourth place in the sprint. Bagnaia struggled to pass Martin due to the disturbed air coming off the Pramac bike. Initially, Bagnaia maintained his lead during the beginning stages of the grand prix, but eventually, he was overtaken by Marquez as the race conditions shifted.

Bagnaia appears to be continuing his impressive form in single-lap performance, and now, fully healed from the injuries he sustained at Aragon, he's also showing solid endurance in longer runs. As he approaches his 100th MotoGP race, it could turn out to be a significant milestone, especially since he is poised to secure Ducati's 100th win.

Marquez faces challenges in securing a third consecutive victory

The recent Friday proved to be challenging for Marquez, who experienced an unusual issue with his GP23 at the beginning of the second session, altering his strategy for the day. Despite the setback, the Gresini team's rider, who clinched the MotoGP victory at the Emilia Romagna GP in 2021, completed 14 laps using a medium rear tyre.

He achieved his top time of 1 minute and 31.292 seconds on the 13th lap, with his overall average speed being 1 minute and 31.583 seconds. Over the length of a grand prix, this results in him being 10.071 seconds ahead of Bagnaia.

Throughout 2024, Marquez and his crew chief Frankie Carchedi have consistently pulled off impressive improvements on Sundays. However, at this point, the likelihood of Marquez achieving his first trio of consecutive wins since 2019 seems slim.

It appears his main competition will be against Bastianini. The rider from Italy managed to complete 18 laps using a medium rear tire, recording his fastest lap, a 1m31.472s, on his 17th attempt. On average, his lap times hovered around 1m31.649s. However, he confessed to feeling less assured in the left-hand turns while on the medium tire.

Generally speaking, two competitors outpaced Marquez and Bastianini, with Tech3 GASGAS newcomer Pedro Acosta clocking an average speed of 1m31.352s, and VR46 Ducati’s Marco Bezzecchi recording a time of 1m31.541s.

However, both focused their efforts on the less competitive segments, with Acosta managing an average of merely three significant laps. While there's a chance they could disrupt the qualifying rounds and secure advantageous positions, the likelihood of them contending for a spot on the podium seems far-fetched.

Quartararo's remarkable performance on the Yamaha, finishing fifth, was supported by solid race speeds. On a medium rear, across 14 laps, Quartararo's quickest lap was clocked at 1m31.581s, with his overall average speed being approximately 1m31.664s.

In the later stages of the tire's lifespan, his speed wasn't as competitive as the others who were ahead of him in the rankings, yet aiming for a top five finish seems like a viable goal for the French driver.

Following an impressive weekend in San Marino and a successful test session afterwards, it seemed that Quartararo was equipped with two of Yamaha’s latest chassis designs on Friday. Considering Yamaha's challenges with passing other riders, he is likely to face continuous pressure from competitors trailing him, and advancing positions will be quite tough, despite potentially strong qualifying results.

The action on Friday at the Emilia Romagna GP doesn't indicate that the second trip to Misano will produce the exciting group competition many anticipated. However, the potential showdown between Bagnaia and Martin, given the stakes for the championship, is highly enticing…

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