Labour on the Brink of Historic Victory: Inside Sir Keir Starmer’s Final Push to Transform UK Politics

As the deadline approaches, those within the Labour Party are wary yet optimistic that their moment has arrived. Initially skeptical when Sir Keir Starmer insisted he could revive Labour's prospects in a single term, it appears he may indeed be on the verge of vindication.

Political correspondent @BethRigby

Wednesday, July 3, 2024, 03:

At last, following a grueling six-week period, we are entering the last day of the election campaign. Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer are set to crisscross the nation, delivering their closing arguments to the electorate.

The prime minister, potentially facing job loss in under two days, plans to remain in Conservative strongholds in Hampshire and the South East.

The individual likely to succeed him, Sir Keir, is set to campaign across the UK's three nations where his candidates are competing, starting his quest for 10 Downing Street with stops in Wales, Scotland, and England.

In the Labour camp, they remain focused on mobilizing voter turnout and are taking nothing for granted.

A source tells me that as election day approaches, around 60-70 seats remain highly competitive, with outcomes that could swing in either direction. However, there's also a subdued acknowledgment that, after losing four consecutive elections, it might finally be Labour's moment to shine.

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This anticipated win, should it occur, will necessitate a second glance, despite the absence of significant risk for Labour during this election campaign, as the Conservatives have been unsuccessful in changing the polling dynamics.

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The extent of the accomplishment is truly remarkable. At the previous election, Labour recorded its poorest showing since 1935, securing only 202 seats, while Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to their most significant victory since Margaret Thatcher's era.

Nearly all attendees at the gathering, except for Sir Keir and his campaign leader Morgan McSweeney, were convinced that Labour would be excluded from leadership for ten years. The Labour chief consistently assured me that he could change the party's fortunes within a single term. I doubted his optimism, but it appears he may soon be vindicated.

Sir Keir's whirlwind tour across three nations isn't meant to celebrate his successes, but rather to demonstrate his commitment to his governing philosophy that prioritizes national interests over party politics, often encapsulated in his frequent saying, "Country first, party second."

He expresses his desire to serve as a prime minister who can reunify the nation following the Scottish referendum, the conflicts over Brexit, the partygate scandal, and more recently, the internal disputes within the Conservative Party. He views a potential victory in Thursday night's election as the initial step towards this goal.

According to internal surveys from the Labour Party, there is a chance that for the first time in 24 years, the party might secure the highest number of votes and potentially the most seats across all three nations, although the situation in Scotland remains uncertain. The last time Labour achieved this feat was under Sir Tony Blair during his sweeping victory in 2001.

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However, his crew is fully conscious that triumphing on Thursday merely marks the initial phase, with the real challenges lying ahead.

Mr. Johnson exemplifies a leader who initially seemed to have transformed the political landscape, only to discover that his overwhelming victory stood on unstable foundations.

The diverse group of voters he gathered to achieve Brexit and block Jeremy Corbyn dissipated due to numerous factors, primarily his behavior while in office and his inability to fulfill pledges related to Brexit, including promises to enhance the country's standing and manage immigration effectively.

"A Labour source noted that if their seat count increases from 200 to around 360 or 370, there's potential to reverse those gains,"

"The responsibility rests with you, though one shouldn't presume that a significant lead now will translate to success in the upcoming election. We must put in a great deal of effort to retain our current supporters and to attract those who have not previously voted for us."

Sir Keir's team is highly conscious that their potential win largely hinges on a nationwide desire among voters to see the Conservative Party ousted, rather than solely on the proposals of the Labour leader.

In every location I've visited during this campaign, it seems impossible to encounter a voter who holds a favorable opinion of the current Conservative administration, as surveys indicate that three-quarters of the electorate are unhappy with their performance.

The potential impact of an opposition attack could be devastating for the Conservative Party. While Sir Keir does not enjoy the level of popular support that Sir Tony or Lord Cameron once did, he may still be on course to secure a significant electoral victory.

This suggests that if Sir Keir successfully connects with the electorate this Thursday, he may experience an exceptionally brief initial phase of popularity as Prime Minister.

He may garner support from a broad spectrum of people, yet, his team admits, this support might not be deeply rooted.

"A top official from the Labour Party noted, 'Some voters are primarily focused on removing the Tories from power. Therefore, we need to regain their trust while governing to ensure their support in the forthcoming election.'"

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Labour insiders acknowledge that progress will be gradual. Regardless of the margin of victory, whether it's by a modest amount or more than 100, the fact remains that Sir Keir has promoted a restrained approach to governance. "No matter how large our victory might be, our financial resources remain the same," warns a Labour strategist.

"When members of the Labour Party discuss adopting more radical policies, they typically suggest increasing taxes and possibly boosting spending. However, our focus is different; we aim to transform lives by expanding the economy, and this goal remains constant regardless of whether our majority is 50, 80, or more than 100."

An individual close to Sir Keir expressed it in these terms: "While a substantial Labour victory doesn't enhance government funds, it does grant authority for the policies elected upon and underscores the necessity to adhere to that program."

However, Sir Keir will aim to demonstrate that he is taking immediate action.

This year’s summer break for MPs will be unusually brief, with the summer session now prolonged until the end of July and a return date set for September 2. A major King’s Speech is scheduled for July 17, where Sir Keir will unveil his legislative agenda, followed by a significant announcement on housing from Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner, coming shortly after their electoral win.

The Conservative Party must now consider its next steps as various candidates emerge to succeed Mr. Sunak as leader.

Further reading: Can a prime minister effectively set aside dedicated family time? Both Badenoch and Braverman refute any connections to Conservative leadership campaign websites.

A past cabinet member is adamant that Mr. Sunak should remain in his position until a new leader is chosen, ideally before the Conservative Party conference scheduled for late September. Close acquaintances of the Prime Minister believe he will make the correct decision, emphasizing that he is not one to abandon his responsibilities hastily.

In May, Mr. Sunak made the risky decision to schedule an election for the summer, and it now appears that Sir Keir is set to benefit from it.

He is on track to become the first Labour leader in almost 30 years to secure a victory from the opposition, potentially heading the first Labour administration in over a decade.

The victory marks a significant moment in history, as shifts in political leadership typically do. It remains uncertain whether Sir Keir's triumph will impact the United Kingdom to the extent of past pivotal administrations like those of Clement Attlee in 1945, Margaret Thatcher beginning in 1979, or the three terms led by Tony Blair.

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