KTM’s Rising Challenge: A Real Threat to Ducati’s Dominance at the Japanese MotoGP?

Analysis of Lap Times: Is KTM's Performance a Worry for Ducati?

In the Friday practice session of the Japanese MotoGP, KTM showed faster speeds than Ducati.

The MotoGP circuit is approaching the conclusion of the initial three-race stretch, part of two such sequences before reaching the final showdown in Valencia. So far, this series of races has hardly made it clear who the leading championship contender might be.

Heading into this weekend's Japanese Grand Prix, Jorge Martin leads Francesco Bagnaia by 21 points, positioning them as the primary contenders. The gap has widened due to non-finishes for Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini in Indonesia, leaving them trailing by more than 70 points.

Marquez has declared his race for the title finished, yet Bastianini holds onto a slim chance based on numbers. Nonetheless, the performance throughout the initial 15 races of 2024 hinted at an inevitable showdown between Martin and Bagnaia for the championship.

During this period of the season, Martin was notably at his peak performance last year. However, it was also when significant mistakes undermined his quickness. On Thursday at Motegi, he disclosed the extent to which the 2023 championship contest affected him.

"My sleep has significantly improved," he mentioned. "The previous season posed quite a challenge. It wasn't as much in Japan, but rather, in Thailand and Malaysia where I faced significant difficulties, not to forget Valencia as well."

Martin now holds a clear edge in experience. He further expressed that he believes his mental strength and overall skill as a rider have significantly improved, even if his speed might not match what it was last year.

Is Ducati set to reign supreme once more?

A masterpiece on display 🎨🇯🇵 @marcmarquez93 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/R8R4lMEj87— Crash MotoGP (@crash_motogp) October 4, 2024

A masterpiece on display 🎨🇯🇵 @marcmarquez93 #MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/R8R4lMEj87

The newfound resilience of the Spanish rider faced a significant challenge on Friday in Motegi and will serve as a benchmark for his performance throughout the remainder of the Japanese Grand Prix weekend.

Martin made a significant impact during Friday's practice rounds, securing the third-fastest position overall. As a Pramac team member, he clocked in at 1m43.568s, trailing the leading rider, Brad Binder of the factory KTM team, by a mere 0.132 seconds.

Martin was anything but pleased with his motorcycle performance. In a statement to the press, he described the day as "challenging," pointing out problems with the bike's responsiveness. He was struggling to get a good feel for the front of the bike and was aiming to enhance his braking capabilities, crucial for the stop-and-go design of the Motegi track. An adjustment made to the setup in the afternoon ended up deviating further from his desired performance level.

Additionally, he experienced difficulty in maintaining grip on the rear tire, especially noticeable during his extended runs.

He completed 16 laps using a soft rear tire, which Michelin considers a strong option for both the Grand Prix and the sprint race, assuming dry conditions. His average speed, calculated from an eight-lap segment with outliers and invalid times excluded, was approximately 1 minute and 44.755 seconds. This performance nominally places him as the quickest in terms of race speed, albeit by a narrow margin.

Certainly, a 24-lap grand prix presents a completely different challenge, something Martin is acutely conscious of. He acknowledges the need for significant improvement before Sunday. This task may be made more difficult by the potential for rain on Saturday, which could erase the rubber laid down on the track on Friday.

A lack of rain shouldn't disadvantage Martin given his recent performance, but if conditions are wet this weekend, he should still fare well. Martin excelled in last year's rain-interrupted MotoGP race at Motegi.

On Friday, Marc Marquez, riding for Gresini, showed clear frustration during the second practice session, which appeared disorganized. However, he managed to regroup in the last 10 minutes, coming close to leading the session. His crew chief, Frankie Carchedi, described it as “one of the hardest Fridays” they've faced this year.

Marquez remained tight-lipped about his specific challenges, although he pointed out braking as a significant aspect needing enhancement. His schedule was so disjointed that he couldn't manage any substantial long-distance runs. From a brief stint of three laps using a soft rear tire, Marquez's speed stands at 1 minute and 45.129 seconds.

Currently, it's difficult to determine Marquez's exact position within the context, but considering the improvements of the GP24 compared to the GP23 at Motegi, envisioning a podium finish seems unlikely.

Enea Bastianini experienced difficulties during practice when a mid-session fall interrupted his performance. This occurred after his foot became entangled in the gear lever, causing an unintended shift up rather than down going into Turn 13. He managed to complete nine laps on a soft rear tire, achieving an average speed of 1 minute and 45.026 seconds. In contrast, his Ducati teammate Francesco Bagnaia had a positive end to Friday, differing significantly from his team counterparts.

Following the challenges encountered in Indonesia on Friday that affected his performance during the grand prix and hindered his ability to compete against Martin, Bagnaia consistently showed speed. His time trial of 1 minute and 43.754 seconds, placing him in the seventh position, does not fully reflect his capability due to an error he made during that attempt. Excluding this mistake, his optimal current lap time stands at 1 minute and 43.504 seconds, and there's potential to shave off a bit more time if the qualifying conditions are dry.

Bagnaia completed a dozen laps using the soft rear tire, maintaining an average speed of 1 minute and 44.773 seconds. He views himself as the top contender at the moment, albeit his average speed is slightly behind Martin’s. Nonetheless, he considers this slight lag insignificant, especially since the Pramac competitor has not yet found consistent performance with his GP24 at Motegi.

Is KTM a formidable contender?

Brad Binder leads the pack in Motegi practice session ⏱🇯🇵 A tightly contested round 🤏#MotoGP #JapaneseGP pic.twitter.com/3JYgfa0A10

The KTMs captured everyone's attention on Friday, with Binder topping the charts with a time of 1m43.436s, and Pedro Acosta finishing fourth on his GASGAS-branded Tech3 motorcycle.

In recent times, KTM has enjoyed considerable success at the Motegi circuit. Last year, Binder achieved a runner-up position in the sprint race held in Japan, and he also secured a podium finish in the grand prix the preceding year. The circuit's design, characterized by its abrupt stops and starts, complements KTM's strengths in effective braking, robust engine output, and its capability to navigate sharp turns efficiently.

Acosta delivered a robust performance in Indonesia last weekend. Opting for a chassis that Binder had previously rejected, Acosta managed to secure a second-place qualification and maintained that position at the finish line, trailing Martin by just 1.4 seconds. At one point during the Mandalika race, the difference between them narrowed to a mere 0.6 seconds. However, it's notable that Martin eventually extended his lead to 2.5 seconds in the final moments before significantly reducing his pace on the final lap, ensuring his first Sunday victory since the race at Le Mans.

Acosta has maintained impressive pace since the Aragon Grand Prix, regaining a significant amount of self-assurance in the latter part of the season by reverting to the successful settings he employed at the season's outset. Additionally, the introduction of a new chassis has further enhanced this improvement.

Bagnaia identified Martin and Acosta as the riders most competitive with him following Friday's practice, yet he considers them to be "one step behind."

Certainly, Acosta's performance is becoming a worrisome matter for Ducati. He managed to complete 13 laps using the soft rear tire, with an average time of 1m44.867s over a span of seven laps. This level of speed places him closely in competition with Bagnaia and Martin.

Binder was not considered in Bagnaia's evaluation. Given that Binder's average speed was approximately 1m45.432s, based on data from five laps, this seems reasonable at this stage of the weekend.

On Friday at Motegi, Binder ceased to experiment and instead opted to stick with what he knows best, a decision that notably contributed to his impressive lap time. However, Binder mentioned encountering a problem at the beginning of the second session, leaving it uncertain how this might have affected his speed for the race.

Acosta, however, appears to be the top prospect for the Austrian brand and the largest nuisance for Ducati.

In the closely contested championship, Martin's steady performance has positioned him slightly in the lead, establishing him as a likely contender for the title before the season's 16th of 20 rounds.

Looking less dominant on Friday than usual, Bagnaia, Martin's main competitor, seems to have found his stride quickly, and the challenge posed by Acosta and KTM, still fresh from their performance in Indonesia, hasn't diminished. Consequently, the 2024 Japanese Grand Prix is poised to be a crucial weekend for Martin, as he aims to solidify his status as the top contender for the championship.

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