From Legal Eagle to Downing Street: Keir Starmer’s Daunting Leap into Premiership Amid Historic Election

Adam Boulton: Should Labour emerge victorious in the upcoming election, Sir Keir Starmer will confront the most significant challenge of his career, despite minimal prior preparation— a common scenario for new prime ministers. While past roles may offer some readiness for the demands of Downing Street, Sir Keir Starmer might discover that previous high-ranking positions don't fully equip one for the role of PM. Interestingly, for a former Labour government, minimal experience in Whitehall actually proved to be beneficial.

Sky News analyst @adamboultonTABB

Sunday, June 30, 2024, at 2

Ascending to the position of prime minister is a startling experience. The actual election isn't the biggest surprise – any prudent politician understands that opinion polls may not always be accurate and prepares for various outcomes.

No new prime minister can be completely ready for the responsibilities that come with the role, which start immediately on their first day, including being pulled aside to receive a briefing on their duties in the event of a nuclear conflict.

The procedure is especially difficult in the UK due to the rapid nature of the change. Unlike many other nations, there is no gradual period of adjustment. Our approach is unique.

Tony Blair once told Alastair Campbell, "Picture getting ready for a new role by tirelessly touring the nation for six weeks, then enduring several sleepless nights."

Should this general election follow the typical pattern, either Keir Starmer or Rishi Sunak will assume the role of Prime Minister at 10 Downing Street by noon the following day.

Both individuals will have been awake all night, anticipating the announcements from their respective districts well into the early morning and subsequently managing the repercussions of outcomes from other areas.

If he remains connected to reality, Sunak would undoubtedly be astonished by a win, considering the widespread belief that he was likely to be defeated.

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Securing another term as premier may present no additional challenges except for navigating the potential pitfalls he has strategically set for his successor, under the assumption that he will not continue in the role.

As a newcomer, Starmer would confront the task of adapting to a role and way of life previously held by only 56 individuals.

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Attaining the position of prime minister during an election that also results in a shift from one ruling party to another is quite uncommon. Over the past half-century, there have been 13 general elections, yet only three of these resulted in a transfer of power between the Labour and Conservative parties.

Holding the position of a senior minister does not necessarily equip someone for the role of Prime Minister

Gordon Brown, who served as an influential Chancellor of the Exchequer for ten years, considered himself almost a joint prime minister. However, shortly after assuming the role of prime minister, a close associate from his circle admitted to me with some regret: "We assumed it would be similar to running the Treasury but on a larger scale. It's not. The Treasury was focused on a single aspect. As Prime Minister, challenges arise from every angle."

While enjoying tea with Margaret Thatcher, the ex-finance minister also faced a challenging start to his term, addressing terror incidents in London and Glasgow as well as unforeseen flooding throughout England during the summer.

In contrast to previous UK leaders such as Harold Wilson, James Callaghan, Edward Heath, Margaret Thatcher, John Major, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer has not held a ministerial position in any government.

He, like David Cameron and Blair, had limited experience, having served in parliament for 14 years before becoming prime minister, and spending 10 of those years as a shadow minister.

Cameron had served as an MP for nine years before becoming prime minister, a tenure mirrored by Starmer, who entered Parliament in 2015.

Cameron was familiar with the workings of government, having served as an assistant at Conservative headquarters and to high-ranking ministers.

Starmer often mentions his thriving legal career prior to his political tenure. He views his experience managing the sizable Crown Prosecision Service as beneficial groundwork for potentially becoming prime minister.

Starmer also mentions that he is adept at adjusting to different roles, having transitioned from a defense barrister, where he was more like a poacher, to the director of public prosecutions, akin to a gamekeeper.

A prime minister transitioning from full-scale electoral campaigning to leading a party, governing a nation, and managing governmental affairs typically occurs swiftly following a general election.

Cameron, on the other hand, gained an advantage from a hung parliament and spent five days negotiating to establish a coalition with the Liberal Democrats.

Prime ministers who are elected through a general election begin their terms with a fresh set of policies and numerous positions to distribute.

Blair acknowledges that "the downside of a fresh administration is its inexperience in leadership," yet he argues "there's a benefit too… we considered ideas previously inconceivable. We accomplished what seemed impossible." Among his initial moves were consolidating the Prime Minister's Questions into a single weekly 30-minute session and allowing the Bank of England to operate independently.

This initiation into challenging situations and fresh starts might shed light on why Thatcher, Blair, and Cameron stand out as notable national leaders of the recent past, having secured re-election, as opposed to those who assumed leadership through the inner workings of their party's politics.

Sunak is ineligible for membership, while Starmer could potentially gain entry into this prestigious group. However, his opportunities are limited by economic conditions and the commitments he's had to make due to Conservative election strategies.

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Newly appointed prime ministers rely greatly on their surrounding team. There needs to be someone to organize the transition into government, which may be just a few days away. While a leader is busy with the election campaign, it’s crucial they don't appear overly confident or take their win for granted. Both officials and family members are quickly corrected if they mistakenly use "when" instead of "if" while discussing the potential victory.

Blair is recognized for orchestrating one of the most effective leadership transitions, a feat largely attributed to his skilled team. His chief of staff, Jonathan Powell, and advisor, David Miliband, had discreetly prepared a strategy for the government's initial 100 days. Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell were pioneers in the fields of political spinning and media management within the nation. Anji Hunter and Sally Morgan were tasked with the sensitive roles of liaising with the party and broader society, as well as overseeing the selection of ministers and government consultants. Occasionally, errors occur during the distribution of roles, with possible mix-ups of names, lost sticky notes, or misplaced mobile phones.

In a pivotal move aimed at strengthening his team for a potential future government, Starmer made the contentious choice to appoint a highly esteemed senior civil servant as his chief of staff.

He has announced that Sue Gray will assume the leading role, taking over from campaign director Morgan McSweeney immediately upon winning. With years of experience in Whitehall, Gray is well-acquainted with the ins and outs of the corridors of power. She is slated to manage the transition of Olly Robbins into the position of cabinet secretary, succeeding Simon Case. Additionally, she will play a pivotal role in selecting advisors and ministers.

Historically, shadow ministers were given over a year to engage in "access talks" with officials from pertinent government departments to discuss their strategies. However, Sunak delayed granting approval for these discussions to commence until earlier this year, and has subsequently announced an unexpected election. As a result, the Labour Party has had less than six months to get ready.

Concerns are mounting among those preparing Members of Parliament for roles in government, as doubts persist about their readiness. Starmer has demonstrated a capacity for decisiveness, and should he ascend to the role of prime minister, it's anticipated that some current hopefuls for ministerial positions may face unpleasant surprises. Presently, Labour maintains approximately 20 more "front bench" spokespeople than the number of available salaried ministerial positions.

According to Mandelson, the significant and genuine changes in Blair's cabinet occurred following his first year in office.

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Discover more: Should the Conservatives triumph, it could spell disaster for polling firms. Sunak supports demands to reassess gambling regulations for Members of Parliament. What do the party platforms contain?

The leader of the country has additional inescapable responsibilities. Shortly after taking office, Blair faced the challenge of dealing with Princess Diana's passing. Truss, just starting her term, questioned, "Why me?" upon the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Prior to the formal commencement of parliament on July 17, the incoming UK prime minister is slated to attend NATO's 75th-anniversary summit in Washington from July 9 to 11, where discussions will primarily focus on Ukraine. Following this, he will welcome leaders from 50 European nations at Blenheim Palace for a meeting of the European Political Community, an entity established post-Brexit to enhance inter-European relations, occurring a week after the NATO summit.

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Prime ministers often commit mistakes that are later viewed as avoidable, like Truss's mini-budget, Cameron's decision to hold a Brexit referendum, and Blair's choice to invade Iraq. They also face unexpected challenges that are out of their hands, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

The initial surprises faced by a new prime minister might seem minor compared to the challenges they will encounter over the ensuing years. Regardless of their preparation, the role will quickly reveal their capabilities and shortcomings.

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