Decisive Night: Tracking Key Moments and Outcomes in the 2024 General Election with Sky News

Election Night Outcomes: When Will the Winner be Announced?

Sky News' electoral expert Professor Michael Thrasher examines the critical districts to keep an eye on during the course of the election evening.

By Prof Michael Thrasher, Sky News' election analyst

Thursday, July 4, 2024, 6:

Amidst pouring rain, the prime minister declared an unexpected election for July, and six weeks have swiftly elapsed since that announcement.

"Change" has emerged as the prevailing theme, specifically a shift away from the Conservative Party. This election is distinctly marked by its protest nature.

Labour's strategy has focused on distinguishing themselves from the Conservatives. Their policies are somewhat unclear, and when questioned, the party often falls back on the notion of "change".

The leader of the Liberal Democrats, aside from his occasional mishaps into the water, has been assertive in declaring that his party is "winning here," a statement he boldly makes regardless of the location, even if it requires a bit of flexibility with the data on a bar chart.

The Reform party's strategy has highlighted that the Conservatives are too liberal. They claim they are excessively accepting of taxes, Europe, and broadly everything else.

It remains to be seen why Rishi Sunak decided to hold the election sooner than expected, a decision that will hopefully be clarified in his future memoirs. At the time, it seemed it could either be a brilliant strategy – perhaps he was privy to information others weren't – or it was an error in judgment.

The Tories trailed significantly behind Labour in survey rankings, with little faith in their leader and even less in the administration.

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This time is different; typically, when an election is announced, the polling gap tends to shrink as the underdog makes gains, but that's not happening now.

If the current polls are accurate, two significant occurrences are expected to make the 2024 election particularly noteworthy and a focal point for close observation as developments progress.

The Labour Party is poised to secure a commanding majority, with projections varying from substantial to exceptional—a so-called "supermajority." This is particularly remarkable considering the party's significant loss in the 2019 election. It is quite unusual for a political party to increase its seats by nearly 200.

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The next occurrence poses a significant risk to the survival of the Conservative Party.

Sky News' Poll Tracker indicates that their current support from voters is approximately 20%, a significant drop from the 44.7% recorded in 2019. This represents a dramatic 25-point fall, an unprecedented decrease in vote share.

A party experiences significant troubles when it declines to such a low point.

The Conservative Party is protecting 155 constituaries where they garnered less than 50% of the vote in the previous election. These seats are at risk of being lost if their support significantly declines.

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If analysis is done on MRP polls that offer seat predictions, it's possible that the Conservatives might secure less than a hundred seats.

Two key reference points stand out. In the 1997 election, where John Major faced a significant defeat by Tony Blair, the Conservative Party secured only 165 seats, marking their lowest post-war tally.

However, it might be necessary to look even earlier, to the election of 1906. During that election, the party experienced its most severe defeat, plummeting to only 156 seats following a loss of an astonishing 246 seats.

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10 PM

Voting has ended, and it's time for the exit poll results. In 2019, it predicted a majority for Boris Johnson, and it turned out to be accurate.

If the predictions from exit polls, which are conducted by surveying voters at strategically chosen polling sites throughout the UK, significantly differ from the narrative presented by previous polls, which source should we trust?

Drawing on my experience with the last four exit polls and closely watching the specialists who compile the data, I lean towards trusting the exit poll results. Regardless, keep watching to see what happens next.

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If both exit polls and opinion polls are consistent and predict a significant victory for Labour, then continue to follow the coverage.

It remains a slim possibility that all polling predictions could be incorrect. However, it's far more probable that in the coming six hours or so, there will be significant excitement as election results frequently indicate "Lab gain from Con".

A smaller, yet notable, group will show "LD gain from Con".

It appears that Reform UK could potentially benefit at the expense of the Conservatives.

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It's also important to consider Scotland, where the leading Scottish National Party currently holds 48 out of 57 parliamentary seats, but is expected to face significant losses.

The shift in parliamentary seats could rival or surpass the upheaval of 1998, when Labour achieved a sweeping win, securing a majority of 179 seats.

Michael Portillo, serving as the defence secretary at the time, lost his Enfield Southgate seat to Labour's Stephen Twigg after a substantial 17.4-point shift. This event, often referred to as the "Portillo moment," symbolized a significant shift of power between the parties. By morning, an additional six Cabinet members had also been defeated.

What number of Portillo-esque incidents could we see in 2024?

11 PM

As of now, polling stations are delivering ballot boxes to counting locations, sparking the typical conjectures regarding voter participation. Previously, it stood at 67%.

In 1950, voter turnout reached its peak at 83.9%, the highest since the establishment of universal suffrage in 1929. Conversely, the lowest turnout occurred in 2001, recording just 59.

Since that time, elections have consistently seen low voter participation.

There are numerous reports of postal ballots arriving late. It is expected that voter turnout will be similar to or perhaps slightly less than it was in 2019. We need to wait for the results from all 650 constituencies to determine the precise voter turnout.

11:30 PM to 12:15 AM

Several administrators managing electoral services are vying to have their constituency be the earliest to announce results. Previously, Newcastle upon Tyne Central held this distinction, declaring at 11:27 PM, having also been the first in 2017.

None of these instances approach Sunderland's record-setting time for announcing election results. Sunderland achieved its quickest declaration for one of its three constituities during the 2001 election, announcing at 10:43 PM.

Adjustments to district lines and new regulations regarding the validation of mail-in ballots submitted at polling places on election day will influence the pace of the vote tally this time around.

However, the publication of the projected announcement schedules indicates that two electoral districts are competing for the prestigious distinction.

Sunderland is back in the spotlight, with the Houghton and Sunderland South constituency expected to announce its results at around 11:45 PM. Meanwhile, Blyth and Ashington are also contenders, aiming to declare their results a quarter of an hour earlier.

It seems there might be a tactical move at play here—announcing a projected time while intending to act sooner. Therefore, we should also consider including Basildon and Billericay, along with Broxbourne, all slated for a 12:15 AM declaration. When the results from the former are announced, they will determine the future of the Conservative Party chairman, Richard Holden. This could serve as a preliminary signal of what's in store for his fellow Cabinet members.

12:30 AM – 3:00 AM

Anticipate roughly 80 announcements in the coming hours.

Should history from 2019 echo once more, the North East is expected to take center stage. Typically, Hexham consistently chooses a Conservative representative, but if Labour were to achieve an 11.3-point swing in this area, it could mark a significant shift. Such a change might suggest that Labour is capable of surpassing the nationwide swing they achieved back in the 1997 election.

If Hexham has been captured, then it's highly likely that Redcar, which Boris Johnson proudly claimed he turned "blue car", will undergo a color change as well – only a 5.5 point swing is needed there.

In an unexpected turn of events during the recent May local elections, Labour secured a victory at Rushmoor Council for the first time in history.

Rushmoor, where the Aldershot constituency lies, is a stronghold for the Conservatives. For Labour to claim victory, they require a significant 17-point shift in voter preference. However, if the voting trends from May persist into the general election, we could see a major surprise in the results.

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The Isle of Wight is divided into two constituencies, with the eastern seat announcing its results earlier. Should Labour succeed here, it would significantly propel Sir Keir Starmer closer to becoming the next resident of Downing Street.

Recent special elections have set numerous records, as Labour achieved six net gains. Among these, Mid Bedfordshire announced its results at about 2:45 a.m. The Conservative support dramatically fell in this area in October 2023, and a similar outcome would signify another victory for Labour.

Several Labour representatives were unseated during the May local elections, influenced by demonstrations regarding the Gaza conflict, which swayed voter behavior. This trend was observed in Pendal, and it could be intriguing to monitor how Labour's voting percentage changes in the newly formed Pendle and Clitheroe constituency.

The southwest region of England presents significant opportunities for the Liberal Democrats, and one of the initial constituencies likely to announce results could be Torbay, a seat the party controlled during its most successful periods. Recapturing this seat would indicate a shift of 17 percentage points away from the Conservatives, suggesting the potential for additional victories ahead.

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A key element of the election story revolves around the fate of the 48 seats currently held by the SNP. Should Labour manage to secure a significant portion of these seats, their journey to achieving an absolute majority would be considerably simplified.

A shift of 10 points or less could result in the constituencies of Airdrie and Shotts, Cowdenbeath and Kirkaldy, and Midlothian and Glasgow North changing hands.

Setting their sights higher, Labour aims for victories in Kilmarnock and Loudon, as well as Dundee Central. Should they secure victories in one or both Paisley constituencies, it could significantly boost Labour's position in Scotland, potentially undermining the SNP and its independence agenda.

Starting at 3

If the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats start causing upheaval in traditionally Conservative strongholds, Sky News will shift its coverage to focus on Cabinet ministers who are potentially in jeopardy.

Labour's surge poses a significant risk to Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, known for his claim of a "supermajority." His Welwyn Hatfield constituency would be lost with a shift of 10 percentage points. Secretary of State for Wales, David TC Davies, could also face challenges in Monmouthshire. This scenario might result in two Cabinet members losing their positions.

The secondary strategy for Conservative stronghold protection might also fail. In Plymouth's local elections, Labour performed strongly in the Moor View constituency represented by Johnny Mercer. Additionally, the Central Devon seat held by Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, is also at risk of being lost.

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Coming up next is Mark Harper, the Transport Secretary, who will be vying to retain his seat in Forest of Dean, followed by the Attorney General Victoria Prentis in Banbury, and Esther McVey in Tatton. This could result in as many as seven Cabinet members losing their seats in the election. Additionally, a number of lower-ranking ministers are also at risk.

Many high-ranking Conservative members are at risk of losing to the Liberal Democrats. Recent MRP polling indicates that the constituency of Godalming and Ash, represented by the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is tilting in favor of the Liberal Democrats. A shift of less than 10 points could lead to an unprecedented defeat of a sitting Chancellor in a general election.

According to current polling forecasts, Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is likely to face defeat in Cheltenham. Meanwhile, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan is also at risk as she seeks reelection in Chichester, based on some surveys.

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Other potential targets for the Liberal Democrats include Michael Tomlinson in Mid Dorset and North Poole, and Michelle Donelan in the Melksham and Devizes constituency.

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Be certain that if any or many of those ministers are defeated, the focus of election coverage will change. The emphasis will shift from analysis to the prime minister's admission of defeat.

Henceforth, expect comprehensive media attention on the soon-to-be prime minister. Take note of how often the words "change" and "patience" are used in Starmer's speech as he marks what is arguably one of the most dramatic reversals in our extensive electoral history.

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