Battle for Sherwood: Discontent and the Rise of Reform Challenge Tory Stronghold

Dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and the ascent of Reform: Will the Tories retain their grip on Sheroid Forest?

With the Conservative Party lagging by 20 points in the polls and only a week left until the election, the electorate in Sherwood Forest, located in the East Midlands, is divided on whether the area will continue to be represented by the Conservatives after July 4.

Political correspondent @BethRigby

Thursday, June 27, 2024, 1:

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We began this election by focusing on the key contested areas: The Red Wall, which extends from Bishop Auckland and Blythe in the Northeast to Wolverhampton in the West Midlands.

In the East Midlands, the Conservative Party holds a strong position, controlling 39 out of 47 seats according to the latest electoral map. However, they face challenges in 11 of these seats where their lead is less than 10,000 votes.

Entering the last week, the Conservative Party remains 20 points behind in the polls, and detailed MRP constituency polling suggests a potential catastrophic loss, indicating that in this election, no seat is entirely secure.

Thus, we join the electoral journey in the district of Sherwood Forest.

At this juncture, Home Secretary James Cleverly made a campaign appearance at a sports car manufacturing site located in Labour's 183rd key target constituency. The seat, currently held by former cabinet minister Mark Spencer with a 16,000 vote majority, speaks volumes on its own.

The Conservative Party is adopting a highly defensive strategy in their campaign as their support significantly dwindles.

The Labour Party requires a 15.6 percentage point increase in votes to secure this constituency. Achieving this would indicate a likely overall majority of 50 seats in Parliament.

To offer some perspective, this suggests that Keir Starmer might have secured more additional seats than Tony Blair did in the 1997 election, where Blair increased his party's count by 146 seats, leading to a majority of 179.

Will the Conservative Party maintain its hold in Sherwood Forest?

There's a significant chance of this happening given the widespread dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and the emergence of Reform.

A source within the Conservative party mentioned that the success of the Reform party in this region could be crucial.

"Essentially, if Reform garners 5,000 votes, the Conservatives will maintain their position, but if Reform secures 10,000 votes, then Labour will come out on top," they explained.

'Parliament requires a revitalization'

At the Hollybeck garden center, located where the Sherwood Forest district meets the adjacent Conservative-held Newark, opinions are divided on whether the Conservative Party will maintain its hold in this area.

However, there is consensus on two points: their disappointment with the existing Conservative leadership and their support for a Labour win in the upcoming week.

Elderly voter Maggie described the Conservatives as a "disaster," criticizing their actions as "less than respectable," and mentioned she plans to cast her vote for the Reform Party.

"She believes that there needs to be a significant change and fresh faces in parliament, as it has become quite stagnant," she states.

Maggie, who has previously voted for both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, shared with me that "Reform is truly offering much more now," whereas "the Tories currently seem to be directionless."

Senior citizen Mary expresses her intention to support the Labour Party in the upcoming elections, believing that the Conservative Party is currently facing significant challenges.

She didn't support Jeremy Corbyn, but she has returned to Labour now that Keir Starmer is leading the party.

Her son Rob, who previously supported the Conservatives in the 2019 elections, admits he will be voting for Labour this time, albeit with some hesitation.

He hesitates because, as he puts it, "It seems that Keir Starmer frequently shifts his stance on various issues rather than remaining consistent."

Retired couple Jill and John plan to vote for the Conservative Party, but they emphasize that their support is specifically for their local candidate, not the broader national party.

"To tell you the truth, I'm somewhat disappointed," John admits. "Throughout my life, I've supported the Labour Party, but in recent years, I've changed my stance. Corbyn didn't resonate with me, and I've shifted my allegiances."

From our discussions, it's evident that there is a palpable frustration and even disdain towards the Tories, whereas Starmer elicits, at most, tepid and conditional backing.

A decision to remove the Conservatives from power

This election appears to be driven not by Labour's call for change, but by a collective determination to remove the Conservatives from power.

Starmer could be on the verge of a significant national victory, yet the breadth of his support is countered by its apparent lack of depth, which might become problematic when faced with challenging governance issues.

The potential magnitude of the loss facing the Conservatives is difficult to comprehend, especially given the tepid excitement for the probable winner.

According to detailed polling data from individual constituencies, the Conservative Party could be on the brink of a catastrophic defeat, potentially surpassing the scale of the loss experienced by Arthur Balfour in 1906, when his party was reduced to 156 seats after losing 246.

Discover more: Starmer claims Sunak was 'pressured' into responding to gambling controversy. Sunak and Starmer's last televised debate ended in a tie. The controversy surrounding betting in the election intensifies.

Stay informed with the most recent updates from both the UK and global events by tuning into Sky News.

Mr. Cleverly, seen as a potential candidate for leadership (a notion he hasn't dismissed when I asked), is adamant about continuing the battle, despite the Conservatives trailing by 20 points in the polls after several weeks of campaigning.

He concedes that "this stage of the election is atypical" and recognizes that voters are "displeased with us," also expressing his frustration regarding gamblegate, which he believes has hindered the Conservatives from discussing the campaign's key topics.

He informs me that Labour has not yet clinched the agreement.

"Mr. Cleverly states, 'Our only option is to advocate for each vote in an effort to maximize the number of Conservative MPs elected.'"

"Obviously, our goal is to establish a government, but should that prove unachievable, should the electorate decide against it, our aim will be to ensure that the Labour Party remains accountable."

The process and the people involved will extend past this election. When I question Mr. Cleverly on whether the Conservative Party should remain centrist or shift more to the right in the future, he responds with unmistakable clarity.

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He states: "The Conservative Party has traditionally aligned with the center-right ideology. It's essential for it to embrace both aspects."

If Mr. Cleverly privately believes this election is unwinnable, he understands that the real challenge ahead, assuming he retains his parliamentary seat in Braintree, Essex, will be dealing with his fellow Conservatives regarding future strategies.

The decisions made by the Conservative Party while in power have significantly boosted Starmer's chances of achieving an unprecedented electoral win. The actions they take moving forward will be crucial in determining their ability to regain competitiveness and public support.

The complete roster of contenders for the Sherwood Forest district includes:

• David Dobbie represents the Liberal Democrats.

• Sheila Greatrex-White – Represents the Green Party

• Helen Rose O'Hare – Reform UK Party

• Mark Spencer – Member of the Conservative Party

• Jeremy Paul Spry – Unaffiliated

• Lee Waters – Unaffiliated

• Michelle Welsh – Represents the Labour Party

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