Under Pressure: Sir Keir Starmer Faces Challenges at Labour Conference Despite Recent Electoral Triumph

Adam Boulton: One might assume Sir Keir Starmer's party conference address would be straightforward – hardly the case.

Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to an impressive win in the general election – a feat that might suggest a smooth experience at the party conference. Yet, he finds himself facing challenges from within his party and from the broader public.

Sky News analyst @adamboultonTABB

Sunday, September 22, 2024, at 8

The formidable Iron Lady herself hesitated at the thought of giving her keynote address at the yearly party gathering.

Ronald Millar, the speechwriter for Margaret Thatcher, remembered offering a quick pep talk just as she was about to approach the podium. "Piece of cake, prime minister," he murmured, to which she replied tersely, "not now Ronnie, I'm about to deliver my speech".

Despite finishing third in the general election, the Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, held a jubilant conference in Brighton last week, featuring 72 of their MPs and an ABBA sing-along session. This sets the stage for an anticipatedly more festive Labour conference in Liverpool.

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Sir Keir Starmer has achieved a remarkable triumph, propelling Labour into power after 14 years in the political wilderness. He joins a distinguished group; only a few leaders from the major parties have accomplished this feat. In the last six decades, there have been 21 leaders, yet only five—Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, and David Cameron—have attended their initial party conference as prime minister following a decisive electoral victory over their adversaries.

Despite the usual anxiety that party leaders feel before their major speeches, one might have assumed that Sir Keir's inaugural address as Prime Minister at his party's conference in Liverpool this week would be relatively easy. However, that has not been the case. Even before he begins to speak, Sir Keir faces challenges both from within his own party and from the general populace.

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Merely 80 days after assuming office, the Labour leadership is already facing challenges without any grace period. The party leader must quickly address existing shortcomings. Sir Keir and his supporters have focused their efforts on effectively holding the previous administration accountable for the nation's dilapidated condition. The Prime Minister has so strongly stressed that the situation may deteriorate before improving, that numerous party members feel it’s critical to dispel the prevailing pessimism.

The atmosphere is tense. Labour MPs are disgruntled after being forced to vote for ongoing limitations on child benefits and the elimination of winter fuel allowances for the majority of the elderly. Sir Keir is facing personal criticism for accepting the most gifts and perks in parliament, including high-end glasses, clothing for his spouse, and a VIP box at Arsenal. Meanwhile, those in the prime minister's inner circle, who should be collaborating quietly, are instead making news by allegedly launching harsh attacks on one another.

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The appeal of both the Labour Party and Sir Keir has declined in recent polls. In terms of direct electoral impact, this decrease might not be significant right now. Despite not being highly favored in the previous election, Labour and Sir Keir secured 33.7% of the popular vote, which translated into a dominant 63% of the seats in Parliament due to the voting system and the division among several other parties. This suggests that the party is likely to maintain a strong hold on power for the next four years, regardless of other factors.

Activists are contemplating what the future holds. To maintain control, they believe that the Labour Party must secure stronger backing than it achieved in the July polls. They are looking to Sir Keir to inspire optimism and promise brighter days during his main speech at 2pm on Tuesday. Ellie Reeves MP, the chair of the Labour Party and the more vivacious sister of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, aims to establish a hopeful tone in her speech at the conference's official launch on Sunday.

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At the conference, Sir Keir might seek guidance from past electoral victors.

Like Sir Keir recently, Harold Wilson also returned from a prestigious visit to the White House, where he met Lyndon Johnson. He echoed the words of the late John F Kennedy from his inaugural speech, saying, "In whatever capacity we serve in industry, our mindset should be focused not on what we can withdraw from the collective, but rather on what we can contribute to it." Up to now, neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris have crafted a memorable quote worth echoing. Moreover, Sir Keir is not likely to make a daring and potentially undiplomatic remark like the Lib Dem leader, who expressed eagerness for Ms. Harris to defeat Mr. Trump.

Numerous recently elected prime ministers have taken the opportunity to motivate their party and the nation by outlining their expectations. In 1970, Ted Heath spoke about the extensive effort required to establish a basis for future Conservative leadership. In 1979, Mrs. Thatcher concluded with the words, "You gave us your trust. Be patient. We shall not betray that trust." Given his recent performance, Sir Keir is likely to comfortably adopt this serious tone.

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Differing from John Major, as well as subsequent Conservative leaders following Theresa May, Sir Keir is not burdened with the task of justifying errors committed by his party while in power. When Mr. Major secured a win in 1992, it was only a matter of months before the Conservatives faced a setback as the pound plummeted from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Mr. Major managed the crisis with a touch of wry humor: "Well it hasn't exactly been a dull week, has it?… Politics is a rough, tough, unpredictable business – and troubles come in bunches." Sir Keir, on the other hand, does not easily resort to apologies, charm, or seeking compassion.

He has not yet tried to emulate the positive outlook of Tony Blair, the last Labour leader to win an election. Blair's 1997 Brighton speech was filled with joyful pride. "It is my honor and privilege to address you… I aim to establish a lofty goal for our nation, to become the epitome of a 21st Century country, a shining example to the globe."

Sir Keir is expected to find more contentment following the examples of David Cameron in 2010 and Boris Johnson in 2019. Both leaders dedicated significant effort to criticizing the Labour Party they had overcome. However, he must proceed with caution, particularly as he opts not to express regret for the gifts he is accepting. It would be quite audacious of him to reiterate the accusation he leveled during his inaugural keynote speech as the leader of the Labour Party: "The one aspect of Boris Johnson that contradicts all my principles is his belief that the rules do not apply to him."

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Attendees at the conference shouldn't anticipate any deviations from the prime minister regarding the upcoming budgetary increases in spending and taxes that Ms. Reeves is set to reveal on October 30.

Currently, the government's strategy to foster optimism and expansion relies on structural adjustments that will have minimal financial impact on the Treasury. These include partially renationalizing the railways, encouraging the private sector to develop onshore wind projects, reforming rental laws and workers' rights, revising Ofsted procedures, overhauling the planning system, and eliminating hereditary peers from the Lords.

During a series of interviews before the conference, Sir Keir shared insights into the main message he plans to deliver in his upcoming speech. He acknowledged the current hardships and budget reductions, likening them to the initial challenging steps of a renovation, such as "stripping everything back to the basics," when refurbishing a home.

Anyone who has embarked on a home remodeling project understands that it often extends for years, far beyond the original schedule. Sir Keir's keynote address will notably lack any immediate solutions, and it definitely won't be a walk in the park.

This Sunday, Trevor Phillips will host his morning show live from the Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

Starting at 8:30 AM, he will be accompanied by Unite's General Secretary Sharon Graham, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, Lebanese Ambassador to the UK Rami Mortada, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

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