Under Pressure: Sir Keir Starmer Faces Challenges at Labour Conference Despite Election Triumph

Adam Boulton: One might assume that Sir Keir Starmer's speech at the party conference would be straightforward – hardly so.

Sir Keir Starmer led Labour to an impressive win in the general election – a feat that might suggest a smooth time at the party conference. Yet, he finds himself facing challenges from within his party and from the broader electorate.

Sky News analyst @adamboultonTABB

Sunday, September 22, 2024, 08:

Even the Iron Lady hesitated at the thought of giving her keynote address at the yearly party convention.

Ronald Millar, the speechwriter for Margaret Thatcher, remembered offering a quick encouragement as she approached the podium. "Piece of cake, prime minister," he murmured, to which she responded, "not now Ronnie, I'm about to give my speech".

The Liberal Democrats secured third place in the recent general election, yet the atmosphere at Sir Ed Davey's conference in Brighton was notably jubilant. The event featured 72 Lib Dem MPs and even an ABBA singalong. It seems likely that the upcoming Labour conference in Liverpool will be an even more festive affair.

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Sir Keir Starmer has achieved a remarkable triumph, propelling Labour into power following 14 years on the sidelines. His achievement places him among a select group of leaders; over the past six decades, 21 individuals have led the major parties, yet only a handful—Harold Wilson, Ted Heath, Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, and David Cameron—have attended their initial party conference as prime minister after a decisive electoral victory over their rivals.

Despite the usual anxiety that party leaders feel before their major speech, one might have assumed that Sir Keir’s inaugural address as prime minister at his party's conference in Liverpool this week would be straightforward. However, things haven't turned out that way. Even before he begins to speak, Sir Keir faces challenges both internally within his party and externally from the public.

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Only 80 days after taking office, the Labour leader is facing challenges without any grace period. Sir Keir and his team have focused on attributing the nation's dilapidated condition to the previous administration with notable success. The Prime Minister has so firmly stated that the situation will deteriorate before it improves, that many within his party feel a pressing necessity to alleviate the prevailing pessimism.

The atmosphere is tense. Members of the Labour Party are displeased after being compelled to vote in favor of maintaining limits on child benefits and ending winter fuel allowances for the majority of elderly people. Sir Keir is facing scrutiny for reportedly accepting the most gifts and complimentary items among parliamentarians, including high-end eyewear, apparel for his spouse, and access to a luxury suite at Arsenal games. Additionally, there are reports of discord among those in the prime minister's inner circle, with allegations of them openly criticizing each other to the press.

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Support for both the Labour Party and Sir Keir has declined in recent opinion surveys. In terms of immediate electoral impact, this decrease might not significantly affect their standing. At the last election, despite not being particularly favored, Labour secured 33.7% of the popular vote, which translated into a dominant 63% of the seats in Parliament due to the voting system and the division among multiple other parties. This suggests that Labour is likely to maintain its strong position in government for the next four years, regardless of these changes in public opinion.

Activists are pondering what the future holds. To maintain its position, they believe that the Labour Party will require stronger backing than what it received in the July polls. They are looking to Sir Keir to inspire optimism and promise of brighter days in his principal speech at 2pm on Tuesday. Ellie Reeves MP, who chairs the Labour Party and is the more charismatic sister of Chancellor Rachel Reeves, aims to establish a hopeful mood in her speech during the conference's formal inauguration on Sunday.

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At the conference, Sir Keir might seek guidance from former electoral victors.

Like Sir Keir recently, Harold Wilson had also returned from a prestigious visit to the White House with Lyndon Johnson when he echoed the words of the late John F. Kennedy's inaugural speech, stating: "Regardless of our position in industry, we should focus not on what we can withdraw from the national reserve, but what we can contribute to it." Neither Joe Biden nor Kamala Harris have yet to deliver a memorable catchphrase that could be similarly quoted. Moreover, it's unlikely that Sir Keir would make a bold, potentially undiplomatic statement like the Lib Dem leader, expressing eagerness for Ms. Harris to defeat Mr. Trump.

Numerous freshly elected prime ministers have seized the opportunity to motivate their party and the nation, setting the tone for expectations. In 1970, Ted Heath spoke about the extensive endeavor of establishing the groundwork for future Conservative leadership. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher concluded her address by saying, "You gave us your trust. Be patient. We shall not betray that trust." Given recent trends, Sir Keir is likely to easily adopt this serious demeanor.

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Unlike previous Conservative leaders such as John Major, or those following Theresa May, Sir Keir doesn't face the challenge of defending the errors committed by his party while in power. When John Major secured a win in 1992, it wasn’t long before the economy suffered a setback as the pound plummeted after leaving the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Major approached the situation with a wry sense of humor, remarking, "Well it hasn't exactly been a dull week, has it?… Politics is a rough, tough, unpredictable business – and troubles come in bunches." Sir Keir, on the other hand, is not known for easily offering apologies, engaging in charm, or soliciting compassion.

He has not yet tried to emulate the cheerful optimism of Tony Blair, Labour's most recent victor in the elections. His address in Brighton in 1997 was filled with joyous self-congratulation. "I am honored and privileged to stand before you… I aim to establish a lofty goal for this nation. To become nothing less than a model nation for the 21st century, a shining example to the globe."

Sir Keir might feel more at ease following the examples of David Cameron in 2010 and Boris Johnson in 2019. Both leaders focused significantly on criticizing the Labour Party they had overcome. Nevertheless, he must proceed with caution, particularly as he opts not to express regret for the presents he is accepting. It would be quite audacious for him to reiterate the accusation he leveled in his inaugural conference speech as the leader of the Labour Party: "What truly goes against all my principles when it comes to Boris Johnson is his belief that the rules do not apply to him."

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Attendees at the conference should not anticipate any deviation from the prime minister's planned course regarding the upcoming spending increases and tax hikes that Ms. Reeves is set to reveal in her budget on October 30.

Currently, the government's strategy for fostering optimism and economic expansion relies primarily on structural adjustments that will not significantly impact the Treasury's budget. These include partially renationalizing the railways, encouraging the private sector to develop onshore wind projects, reforming rental laws, enhancing workers' rights, overhauling Ofsted, revising planning processes, and eliminating hereditary peers from the Lords.

During a series of interviews before the conference, Sir Keir offered insights into the main message he plans to deliver in his upcoming speech. He acknowledged the current challenging times and the necessity of budget reductions, comparing it to "breaking things down and tackling the hard tasks initially" when you are "renovating a home."

Anyone who has undertaken home improvements can attest that they often extend far beyond the originally estimated timeline. Similarly, in Sir Keir's upcoming leader's speech, expect no quick fixes or easy solutions.

This Sunday, Trevor Phillips will host his morning show live from the Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

Starting at 8:30 AM, he will be accompanied by Unite's General Secretary Sharon Graham, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, the Lebanese Ambassador to the UK Rami Mortada, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

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