Marquez Battles GP24 Dominance at Austrian GP: A Glimpse of Hope Amidst Ducati’s Evolving Power Struggle

Marc Marquez faces a tough challenge in stopping the GP24's dominance in Austria

Marc Marquez had a promising Friday at the Red Bull Ring with the GP23, but will he be able to compete against the GP24s?

The disparity in performance between the GP23 and GP24 models of Ducati's MotoGP motorcycles has emerged as a major topic of discussion, particularly after the British Grand Prix held two weeks ago, where the 2024 version demonstrated a noticeable superiority over the earlier model.

At the Silverstone circuit, Gresini Ducati's Marc Marquez acknowledged a significant difference at certain circuits, stating that in the UK, he was trailing by approximately four to five seconds over the entirety of the race.

Before the upcoming Austrian Grand Prix, two-time world champion Francesco Bagnaia shared with DAZN his thoughts on the peculiar difference in performance between the two motorcycles. He noted that the GP24 has seen little change through the initial 10 races, whereas, in his view, the GP23 has been the subject of several upgrades.

Results from Friday's Practice Sessions at the Red Bull Ring for the 2024 Austrian MotoGP

At Silverstone, the dominance of three GP24s securing the first three positions in both events indicates that the newest Demosedici model excels on tracks where power plays a more significant role.

Although the engine variations between the GP24 and GP23 may not be significant, the latter's onboard height adjustment mechanism appears to offer some advantages in performance.

The Austrian GP, taking place at the Red Bull Ring this weekend, emphasizes power in its track design. Following Friday's practice session, the standings resembled those of the British GP, with three GP24s dominating the top positions and Marquez securing the fourth spot on his GP23.

Bagnaia topped the speed charts, recording a lap time of 1 minute and 28.508 seconds, establishing a new track record. Franco Morbidelli, riding the Pramac GP24, was hot on his heels with a time of 1 minute and 28.789 seconds, making him the nearest competitor. Jorge Martin, who currently leads the championship, secured the third spot with a lap time of 1 minute and 28.827 seconds. Meanwhile, Marquez claimed the fourth position, clocking in at 1 minute and 28.858 seconds.

As Friday's sessions concluded, Bagnaia emerged with a distinct lead in outright pace. The gap between the first four is minimal, at only 0.350 seconds, but Bagnaia claims 0.281 seconds of this difference for himself. Given his consecutive victories at the Austrian GP over the past two years, it's expected that he would start off strong in the 2024 event right from Friday.

Concerns for Marc Marquez's long-term performance

Although data from extended sessions may not fully predict Sunday's race outcomes, it provides a sneak peek at the potential rankings, especially in comparing the GP24 and GP23 models.

At this stage of the weekend, things aren't looking up for Marquez.

Considering the most significant extended durations at the forefront for the leading quartet, specifically the instances where they utilized the same tire in succession, Bagnaia is at the forefront in this scenario as well.

In the second practice session on Friday afternoon, which lasted an hour, Bagnaia opted for the medium rear tire for his initial two attempts. On the 15th lap using this tire, he recorded a time of 1m30.026s. When considering his average time on this tire (excluding laps that were not representative or were disqualified due to track limit violations), his speed is currently estimated to be around 1m29.865s.

Kicking off the Austrian Grand Prix impressively, Morbidelli, who was just revealed to be joining VR46 Ducati in 2025, secured the second spot on the leaderboard. Remarkably, he opted to run the same medium rear tire for two successive stints, with his tire being five laps fresher than Bagnaia's, which had seen 10 laps of action.

Morbidelli achieved his fastest lap time of 1m30.078s on a tyre that had been used for 10 laps, maintaining an average time of 1m30.073s. His team-mate, Martin, spent the majority of his Friday session utilizing the soft tyres, delivering a noteworthy performance.

The frontrunner in the championship completed consecutive laps using just one soft rear tyre, which had been used for 12 laps already by the time of his second stint. On this tyre, now 16 laps old, he achieved his fastest time of 1m30.405s, with his overall average speed being 1m30.155s. Given this performance, it seems Martin will pose a significant challenge in the upcoming sprint, which is expected to predominantly feature the use of soft tyres.

Marquez opted for a single medium tyre across his initial two attempts during the second practice session. He achieved a time of 1 minute and 30.135 seconds on a tyre that had already seen 10 laps, with his mean time coming to approximately 1 minute and 30.239 seconds.

Over the course of a 28-lap Austrian Grand Prix, Bagnaia is projected to secure a victory this Sunday, leading the closest GP24 competitor, in this case, Morbidelli, by 5.824 seconds. This outcome is within the realm of feasibility, considering that in the previous year's Austrian Grand Prix, Bagnaia outpaced KTM's Brad Binder by a margin of 5.191 seconds.

According to current forecasts, Marquez is expected to finish the GP24 race 10.472 seconds behind the leader at the finish line. Additionally, when considering the provided data, he is 2.352 seconds away from securing a podium position against Martin.

Certainly, the complexity of racing suggests that Bagnaia's lead over his competitors could diminish by tomorrow, as teams analyze and integrate data gathered throughout the night.

Marquez kicked off the Austrian Grand Prix on a rough note, finishing Free Practice 1 in the 18th spot, as a lap that would have placed him eighth was disqualified for exceeding track boundaries. However, his performance improved significantly in the later session, suggesting a positive momentum that seems likely to persist.

Marquez has consistently demonstrated throughout this season that he and his Gresini team excel during Sunday races. His impressive rallies from positions beyond the top 12 to podium finishes at the French, Catalan, and German Grand Prix are testament to this.

However, his aspirations to secure his first win on the Ducati this weekend seem quite challenging following Friday's practice sessions…

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