Marc Marquez’s Quest for Ducati Glory: Analyzing His Best Chances for a 2024 MotoGP Victory

What are Marc Marquez's top opportunities to secure his first Ducati MotoGP victory in 2024?

The eight-time world champion has 10 races remaining in 2024 to end his streak without a win.

Marc Marquez's debut season riding the Ducati MotoGP bike for the Gresini team has marked a strong comeback for the six-time world champion in the premier class.

Abandoning the last year of his agreement with Honda to ride a Ducati model that’s already a year old for the 2024 season was one of the most significant gambles of his MotoGP career so far, but it has turned out to be successful.

Achieving nine podium finishes in both sprint races and grands prix during the first half of the season, Marquez also landed a factory Ducati deal for 2025.

This represents a significant shift from his performance on the challenging Honda bike last season, where Marquez only secured three podium finishes overall.

His quest for a victory since the 2021 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix continues. As of now, it has been 1,020 days since he secured his 59th MotoGP win.

Throughout 2024, he has had several near wins, especially at the Spanish Grand Prix where he finished only 0.372 seconds behind Francesco Bagnaia after a fierce competition for the top spot.

The traditionally strong performances at COTA and Sachsenring did not result in a first-place finish as anticipated. In Austin, he lost control and crashed after taking the lead, due to a problem with the brakes. Meanwhile, in Germany, a challenging weekend prevented him from competing for the win, but he still managed to secure a second-place finish despite starting from 13th position.

After the British Grand Prix, he shared with motogp.com that they had been very near to winning in the initial 10 races, or achieving his first triumph with Ducati.

"In the two circuits where I usually perform well, Austin and Sachsenring, the weekends turned out to be quite challenging. This was especially true in Austin, where I encountered a brake issue while I was in the lead."

"However, there are still 10 races left. It's a fact that three riders on the 2024 Ducati bikes are quicker than us. They are extremely fast and performing exceptionally well."

"We'll make our best efforts and continue to have fun. That's what matters most. We'll also aim to maintain that positive vibe while riding."

During a discussion at Silverstone, Marquez acknowledged that the GP24 has shown significant improvement over the GP23 on some circuits. He pointed out, "Currently, we're averaging four to five seconds slower per race compared to the GP24. To compete with them, we need to enhance our performance by more than two or three tenths of a second per lap."

"That's quite a bit. It might not seem so bad, but it's actually a lot! Competing in Austria will be challenging. However, our goal remains to finish in the top four or five, and ideally, we aim to contend for a podium spot, just as we have in other races."

The forthcoming Austrian Grand Prix, a race where Marquez has yet to claim a victory, is expected to resemble the British Grand Prix in terms of outcomes, with the GP24 bikes outperforming the GP23 models. This doesn't imply that Marquez is incapable of winning at the Red Bull Ring, but the subsequent race in Aragon offers a more promising chance for success.

Having clinched victory five times at Aragon, the counterclockwise circuit complements Marquez’s riding technique. In 2021, despite his right arm still healing and being over 30 degrees off its normal position following a break at Jerez the previous year, he managed to secure second place on his Honda and almost triumphed in a duel with Bagnaia.

Marquez secured four consecutive victories at Aragon from 2016 to 2019, with his most commanding performance coming in 2019 when he finished 4.8 seconds ahead of Andrea Dovizioso.

Consecutive races at Misano after the Aragon round are expected to benefit him. Last year’s San Marino Grand Prix was one of his stronger performances on the Honda, where he secured a seventh-place finish. The Ducati typically performs well at Misano, but a crucial aspect for Marquez is that, for the first time since the Qatar race this season, he will begin a race weekend without the significant challenge of setting up his GP23.

Coming in fourth place during his first race on a Ducati in Qatar, after just two days of testing at the circuit prior to the event, suggests that the Emilia Romagna GP could offer him his best chance at winning since his close loss in the Spanish GP.

Indonesia has not been favorable territory for him, as he had to pull out in 2022 because of a concussion and was eliminated early in last year's event. However, Japan, Australia, and Thailand have historically been successful locations for Marquez, both during his championship-winning seasons and even in more challenging recent times, potentially offering some advantage to the GP24s.

Malaysia might see a performance akin to the Emilia Romagna GP, considering his prior experience at Sepang on the GP23. However, his familiarity with the bike and its configuration has evolved considerably since that time. The same applies to Valencia, where he initially tested the bike last November. Nonetheless, Valencia’s counterclockwise track design is more suited to his abilities compared to Sepang.

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