Marc Marquez Faces Uphill Battle Against GP24 Dominance at Austrian GP Despite Strong Friday Showing

Marc Marquez's chances of stopping the GP24 dominance in Austria appear slim

Marc Marquez had an impressive Friday at the Red Bull Ring on his GP23, but can he compete with the GP24s?

The difference in performance between the GP23 and GP24 Ducati MotoGP bikes has sparked significant discussion. This came to the forefront after the 2024 model demonstrated a noticeable superiority over the previous version during the British Grand Prix two weeks ago.

During the race at Silverstone, Marc Marquez, who rides for Gresini Ducati, acknowledged that there are certain tracks where the gap is quite evident. He pointed out that during the race in Britain, he was trailing by approximately four or five seconds.

In anticipation of the upcoming Austrian Grand Prix this weekend, Francesco Bagnaia, the current double world champion, expressed to DAZN that he finds the difference between the two motorcycles to be "strange." He noted that the GP24 hasn't seen many changes over the first 10 rounds, whereas the GP23, in his view, has been updated.

2024 Austrian MotoGP, Red Bull Ring – Results from Friday's Practice Session

Dominating the top three positions in both races at Silverstone with three GP24s, it indicated that the newest Demosedici excels at tracks where power plays a more critical role.

Although the GP24 and GP23 engines are not vastly different, the factory ride height mechanism on the GP24 appears to offer an advantage in this aspect.

The Red Bull Ring, where the Austrian GP will take place this weekend, is a track that emphasizes power. Following the practice sessions on Friday, the standings were similar to those at the British GP: three GP24 bikes were at the top, followed by Marquez in fourth on his GP23.

Bagnaia set a new lap record with a top time of 1 minute 28.508 seconds. Franco Morbidelli, riding the Pramac GP24, was his nearest competitor, clocking in at 1 minute 28.789 seconds. Championship frontrunner Jorge Martin secured third place with a time of 1 minute 28.827 seconds, and Marquez followed in fourth, recording a time of 1 minute 28.858 seconds.

By the conclusion of Friday’s sessions, Bagnaia stands out with a notable edge in pure speed. Although the top four riders are separated by just 0.350 seconds, Bagnaia accounts for 0.281 seconds of that difference. Having secured victories in the Austrian Grand Prix for the past two years, it’s expected that he would start strong in the 2024 event.

Marc Marquez's Long-Term Concerns

Although data from extended runs doesn't perfectly predict Sunday's race outcomes, it provides an indication of the potential hierarchy, especially in the comparison between the GP24 and GP23 models.

Currently, the situation doesn't look good for Marquez as the weekend progresses.

Considering the most notable extended runs for the top four, specifically the stints where the same tire was used continuously, Bagnaia is also in the lead in this category.

During the hour-long second practice session on Friday afternoon, Bagnaia used the medium rear tire for his initial two stints. On the tire's 15th lap, he clocked a time of 1 minute and 30.026 seconds. Analyzing his average performance on this tire, excluding any unrepresentative laps and those invalidated due to track limits, his current pace is 1 minute and 29.865 seconds.

Franco Morbidelli made an impressive beginning at the Austrian Grand Prix, coinciding with the announcement of his future with VR46 Ducati for the 2025 season, earning him the second spot on this list. He completed two back-to-back runs using the same medium rear tire, although his tire was only five laps old for the second run, in contrast to Bagnaia’s, which had already seen ten laps.

Morbidelli achieved a best lap time of 1 minute and 30.078 seconds on a tire that had already been used for 10 laps, with an average lap time of 1 minute and 30.073 seconds. Meanwhile, his teammate Martin primarily focused on using the soft compound tire during Friday's sessions and delivered a standout performance with it.

The championship frontrunner completed two consecutive stints using the same soft rear tire, which had been through 12 laps by the time he started the second stint. His top lap time on that tire was 1 minute and 30.405 seconds on its 16th lap, with an average speed of 1 minute and 30.155 seconds. As the soft tire is expected to be chosen for the sprint race, Martin is poised to be a significant contender.

In his initial two attempts during the second practice session, Marquez opted for a medium tyre. On a tyre that had already been used for 10 laps, he posted a lap time of 1 minute 30.135 seconds, with his average lap time being 1 minute 30.239 seconds.

Over a 28-lap grand prix race for the Austrian GP, Bagnaia is projected to win on Sunday with a 5.824-second lead over the nearest competitor, Morbidelli, who is also racing a GP24. This scenario is quite plausible, considering Bagnaia defeated KTM’s Brad Binder by 5.191 seconds in the Austrian GP last year.

According to the latest forecasts, Marquez would finish 10.472 seconds behind the leading GP24. Even compared to Martin, the data suggests he would miss out on a podium spot by 2.352 seconds.

Naturally, racing is complex, and it's probable that Bagnaia's lead over the competition will diminish tomorrow as the gathered data is analyzed overnight.

Marquez had a rough beginning to the Austrian Grand Prix, finishing the first practice session in 18th place after a lap that would have placed him eighth was invalidated for exceeding track limits. However, he made noticeable progress in the afternoon, a pattern that seems likely to persist.

Marquez has demonstrated time and again this season that he and his Gresini team consistently perform at their highest level during Sunday races. His impressive climbs from outside the top 12 to reach the podium at the French, Catalan, and German Grand Prix events are clear evidence of this.

His aspirations to secure his first win on the Ducati this weekend appear quite challenging following Friday's practice sessions.

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