Ducati’s Gamble on Rising Star Aldeguer: A Premature Move Amidst Moto2 Struggles?

Has Ducati made an early mistake with their 2025 prodigy?

Ducati's recent newcomer is failing to shine in the 2024 Moto2 season.

This week has been an exciting one for enthusiasts of 1990s pop culture. Initially, Oasis revealed their reunion with plans for several performances in 2025. Following that, on Wednesday morning, Gresini Racing disclosed Fermin Aldeguer's MotoGP assignment by playfully imitating the album cover of Nirvana's Nevermind.

In an almost painfully ironic twist, Aldeguer came into the world a decade following the debut of "Definitely Maybe" and thirteen years subsequent to the pinnacle of Nirvana's success. Therefore, the social media imagery from Gresini is likely to puzzle the young 19-year-old from Spain.

Excited to have you join us, @Aldeguer54! Stay tuned for #GresiniRecords… pic.twitter.com/7EHk1i1Lb7— Gresini Racing (@GresiniRacing) August 28, 2024

Forget about it. Aldeguer's transition to Gresini had been somewhat of a poorly kept secret over the recent weeks as Ducati finalizes its lineup for 2025. However, the situation surrounding Aldeguer's upcoming tenure is notably distinct from the initial buzz that Ducati had secured him on a two-year contract for the 2024 season.

At the time, it was believed, probably even anticipated by the higher-ups at Ducati, that Aldeguer would join Pramac, riding a GP25. However, Marc Marquez's decision to decline an upgrade to Pramac caused rapid changes in the rider marketplace earlier in the season, leading to a reconsideration of plans.

Ducati has officially announced their intention to enter three factory motorcycles in 2025 for racers Francesco Bagnaia, Marquez, and Fabio Di Giannantonio with the VR46 team, aiming to reduce the stress on emerging riders making the transition.

The GP24 Aldeguer is set to receive is currently the top choice in MotoGP, and having the opportunity to concentrate solely on piloting it, without the added concern for its development, will provide a significant advantage.

Just as his motorcycle and team dynamics have evolved, Aldeguer's rank as one of the paddock's promising talents has also shifted.

Demonstrating bursts of quickness during a partial season in 2022 while riding a Boscoscuro frame in Moto2, Aldeguer continued to impress throughout an entire season in 2023. This performance greatly increased the excitement surrounding him.

In 2023, he clinched victory in five races, notably sweeping the last four, propelling him to third place in the overall rankings. Early into 2024, he officially signed a contract to join Ducati's factory MotoGP team for the next season.

In 2024, Aldeguer's performance is highlighting the issue with MotoGP manufacturers' tendency to hastily recruit emerging stars. Sitting at fifth place in the rankings following the Austrian Grand Prix, Aldeguer finds himself 50 points behind the frontrunner, Sergio Garcia.

He has secured two wins, equal to any other competitor at this point in the championship, but trivial mistakes have cost him at least two additional wins. In Barcelona, consistently going beyond the track boundaries resulted in a long lap penalty for him, and during its execution, he fell at the exit of Turn 1. A comparable violation in Assen cost him another victory.

Following the summer hiatus, Aldeguer found himself finishing in 12th place at the British Grand Prix and went completely unnoticed in Austria.

He has acknowledged difficulties in adjusting to Pirelli's tires this season, but it's not a justification he can continue to use, since all competitors are facing the same challenge.

Aldeguer rises to the occasion as a rider akin to Sergio Garcia, who currently leads the Moto2 rankings and shares the Boscoscuro frame with his Spanish counterpart, is required to stay in the intermediate division for a minimum of one more year.

He made a significant impact when it mattered most, with Ducati's choice being purely influenced by his performances in 2023. There's no blaming them for making that decision.

Is Aldeguer a bargain bet with potential rewards?

“Fermin is arguably among the quickest competitors in this new generation,” Bagnaia commented at the start of the season. “In my view, his performance was outstanding, especially towards the end of last year.

"Last year, during a qualifying round at Phillip Island, he truly caught my attention with a lap time that, just two or three years prior in MotoGP, would have been good enough for the second or third row. It was quite remarkable."

"I believe that if he and his team maintain their composure and approach things one step at a time, he's capable of excelling without feeling overwhelmed. He possesses the strength to succeed."

Bagnaia's observation about stress is relevant as Aldeguer is entering a scenario where, hypothetically, he won't be instantly facing intense pressure.

Securing a contract for two years offers him stability in his career, and the environment at Gresini has proven beneficial for younger racers who may have advanced to MotoGP somewhat prematurely. Di Giannantonio serves as an excellent model for Aldeguer and Ducati to emulate.

In 2022, Di Giannantonio advanced to MotoGP through the Gresini team, despite arguably requiring additional experience in Moto2, and faced numerous challenges. The decision to change his crew chief to Frankie Carchedi, who previously secured a MotoGP championship with Joan Mir in 2020 and currently collaborates with Marc Marquez, was a pivotal move for Di Giannantonio. However, the positive impact of this change didn’t become apparent until the second half of the 2024 season.

An impressive performance in the concluding races, highlighted by a maiden victory in Qatar, was crucial in preserving his career, leading VR46 to extend him an offer. Following his achievements in 2024, he has successfully secured a position among the three factory Ducatis for 2025, along with a renewed two-year contract with VR46.

Aldeguer is expected to collaborate with Carchedi at Gresini, a move that appears wise for nurturing the Spanish rider's talent. Despite his promotion to MotoGP seeming less justified now than when he initially secured the contract earlier in the year, it remains crucial for Ducati to fully back him to avoid any appearance of a rushed decision.

However, the speculation that his contract is valued at approximately €300,000 annually positions him as a relatively low-cost gamble with the possibility of significant gains.

This perspective may seem pessimistic, yet it's the reality Aldeguer has found himself in due to his underwhelming performance in this season's Moto2 races. Despite this, the talent Aldeguer showcased in 2023 hasn't vanished. Although his prospects don't look brighter in 2024, achieving five Grand Prix victories, including four consecutive wins, is no accident.

He's not the first newcomer to rise to prominence despite a series of inconsistent performances. The decision to bring Fabio Quartararo into Petronas SRT in 2019 surprised many, considering his unremarkable record in the junior ranks.

However, the team recognized that the racer, who had been incredibly dominant before his Grand Prix days and was once touted as the upcoming Marc Marquez, was still there. He merely required some encouragement to reveal his prowess again.

The occurrence of both riders advancing after competing with the Speed Up team is simply a coincidental parallel.

However, the argument remains that Ducati believes it can achieve similar success with Aldeguer, drawing from its recent experience with Di Giannantonio as evidence that with patience and proper support, significant benefits can be realized.

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