Ducati Eyes Historic 97th Win as MotoGP Title Battle Intensifies at the Austrian GP: Five Key Dynamics to Watch

The pivotal achievement Ducati might secure at the Austrian MotoGP

Here are the five essential elements to keep an eye on during this weekend's Austrian MotoGP.

The Austrian MotoGP in 2024 is scheduled as the eleventh event of the current season. Coming into this race, Enea Bastianini celebrates his initial victory of the season, while KTM aims to achieve its first victory in two years. Meanwhile, Jack Miller is in pursuit of solidifying a MotoGP contract for 2025, a prospect that once seemed improbable.

Additionally, every competitor vying for the championship is aiming to stand out as the primary contender, while Ducati is on the brink of reaching an important achievement.

KTM aims for a significant victory on home soil

Indeed, KTM has celebrated victories at the Red Bull Ring on two occasions, courtesy of Miguel Oliveira at the 2020 Styrian Grand Prix and Brad Binder in the 2021 Austrian GP. However, the team has not tasted victory since Oliveira's triumph at the Thai Grand Prix in October 2022, and it hasn't secured a win in dry conditions since Oliveira claimed first place at the Catalan Grand Prix in May 2022.

Consequently, it enters its home Grand Prix with the most thrilling prospect in the lineup — Pedro Acosta — yet lacking a motorcycle with a track record of Grand Prix victories.

KTM needs to see positive changes quickly if it hopes to approach 2025 with confidence in its ability to secure its first ever MotoGP title. It could be said that there's no better location for this turnaround to begin than at the track named after the company that finances its racing endeavors.

Miller's pass to continue

During the British Grand Prix, Jack Miller expressed his intention to savor his final races as a MotoGP competitor in the latter part of the 2024 season.

Heading into the Austrian Grand Prix, recent developments have revealed that the Australian rider now has a strong possibility of continuing his career in Grand Prix racing with the newly formed Pramac Yamaha team. This potential move had been speculated previously, but expectations were that Pramac would opt for Miguel Oliveira, bringing in his experience to assist Yamaha in improving the competitiveness of the YZR-M1. Additionally, it was anticipated that a newer, younger talent (like Moto2's current leader, Sergio Garcia) would fill the other seat. This seemed to leave Miller, who started his Ducati career with the Italian satellite team in 2018, without a spot.

In a shift in strategy, Yamaha has decided to focus more on enhancing their motorcycles rather than nurturing riders' skills. Moreover, it seems that advice from MotoGP's governing body, Dorna, to refrain from adding another Spanish competitor to the World Championship lineup has potentially cleared the path for Australian racer Miller to re-enter the competition.

As Pramac is an Italian team and KTM has a tradition of making announcements during its home Grand Prix, it's possible that any news regarding Miller—or Oliveira, for that matter—could be delayed until Pramac's upcoming home event, the San Marino Grand Prix at Misano, scheduled for September 6-8. However, if an agreement between Miller and Pramac has been finalized before the end of this weekend, there's a chance that the details could be disclosed before MotoGP wraps up its current meet in Styria.

Is Bastianini Capable of Replicating Silverstone Tyre Marvel?

The fact that Enea Bastianini excels in maintaining grip on a Michelin rear tire was not a newfound insight at Silverstone: it was this skill that played a pivotal role in him acquiring the factory Ducati position he eventually relinquished in 2022.

However, during 2022, while riding for a non-factory Ducati team, Bastianini's inability to consistently perform at a high level prevented him from posing a serious threat for the championship title.

The Red Bull Ring, similar to Silverstone, demands a high level of control over rear traction. Competitors need to both utilize and preserve this aspect effectively to secure competitive lap and race times.

In contrast to Silverstone, the Austrian course places greater stress on the tyre's shoulder and middle rather than its edges. This is mainly because the Red Bull Ring, characterized by its abrupt stops and starts, allows for easier protection of the tyre edges compared to Silverstone's smoother layout. Additionally, the Red Bull Ring features among the few tracks, including Mandalika and Thailand, where Michelin introduces a unique, more durable tyre composition. This design helps in effectively managing the heat generated from the numerous sharp accelerations on the track, a situation that has become even more pronounced with the introduction of the 2a-2b chicane in 2022.

Will Bastianini be able to replicate his outstanding tire conservation performance from Silverstone in Styria? It remains to be seen, but his response will be crucial for the championship race this year.

Ducati aims for victory number 97

There has been significant buzz in recent times about the possibility of a Ducati racer achieving a win that would bring the Italian brand's total number of victories to match the numerical value of the racer's competition number.

In Austria, Ducati has the opportunity to secure its 97th victory in a MotoGP race. While the team doesn't have any racers sporting the #97, this figure holds a different importance as it would equal Suzuki's record for wins in the premier class of Grand Prix racing.

Achieving this would represent a significant achievement for Ducati, which had minimal participation in the 500cc era and only resumed its top-tier Grand Prix racing endeavors 21 years prior.

Moreover, if Ducati, having secured victories in nine out of the ten Grand Prix events this year and triumphing consecutively in the latest seven, were to achieve this remarkable feat this weekend, it would notably occur at the same location where it concluded its nearly six-year hiatus from the winner's circle in 2016 with Andrea Iannone. This victory marked the beginning of its journey to becoming the leading powerhouse in MotoGP today.

Competition intensifies… likely

Should Ducati secure its 97th Grand Prix victory in Austria with Francesco Bagnaia, the Italian racer could replicate his earlier achievement of securing three straight wins at the same track, a feat he accomplished at Mugello and Assen this year.

This could mark Bagnaia's seventh victory and ninth podium finish in the 2024 season across 11 races. Unless he encounters any mishaps similar to those at the Silverstone Sprint, this achievement would propel him back to the forefront of the championship standings.

Yet, Bagnaia securing a win is not guaranteed, even with his impressive five-second lead in 2023.

In Austria the previous year, Jorge Martin demonstrated impressive quickness, yet an early mishap at the first turn during the Sprint essentially derailed his chances for both events. The mishap directly affected his performance on Saturday, and a subsequent penalty added further challenge, distancing him from the front-runners on Sunday. A smoother run this time should position the reigning championship frontrunner as a strong contender for wins in 2024.

Enea Bastianini, not typically known for his prowess in single-lap speed, achieved his inaugural MotoGP pole at the Austrian Grand Prix in 2022. Despite not completing the race due to a mechanical problem with his motorcycle, the Italian rider demonstrated his rapid pace on the Styrian track at that time.

Marc Marquez, nearly outpacing Ducati for the top spot three times from 2017 to 2019 aboard a Honda less compatible with the Red Bull Ring's layout compared to the Desmosedici, is now riding a Ducati, albeit one from the previous year. This switch positions him as a stronger contender for the podium, and potentially the winner's circle, in upcoming races. A win or high placement would significantly bolster his reputation as an eight-time World Champion.

Ultimately, the climate plays a significant role, as demonstrated in 2021, showcasing unusual weather patterns in Styria. Reflecting on the eventful 2021 race, it's evident that prior to the unexpected rain causing all frontrunners except Binder to pit, Bagnaia appeared to be on the verge of securing his first-ever victory.

However, the outcome of this weekend's race won't secure the championship for any of the four competitors, nor will it disqualify any from the race. At Misano, those who didn't perform well in Austria will have two more opportunities to make a comeback.

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