Crashes and Tyres: The Unseen Decisive Factors in the 2024 MotoGP Title Battle

Could accidents play a crucial role in the intense MotoGP title race?

What are the reasons behind the crashes that might determine the 2024 champion?

According to the crash data for the first 10 rounds of the 2024 MotoGP season, the leading three riders in the rankings have not experienced many crashes.

In particular, for Jorge Martin and Francesco Bagnaia, who are separated by only three points at the top of the standings, crashes at crucial times during races have played a significant role in maintaining the tight competition for the championship.

Bagnaia has experienced five crashes this season, whereas Martin has had seven. Enea Bastianini, currently in third place, has also crashed five times. Meanwhile, Marc Marquez, who is in fourth place, has fallen 15 times this year. This is somewhat expected as he is still adjusting to the Ducati.

During last weekend's British Grand Prix, Bagnaia experienced his fifth crash of the season after slipping from fourth place in the sprint race. This incident follows a series of other mishaps, including crashing while leading the sprint in Barcelona, falling during qualifying at Le Mans, colliding in the Jerez sprint, and getting tangled up with Marquez at the Portuguese Grand Prix.

Considering the location of his crash, Bagnaia has lost at least 34 points from his total. Martin, who has crashed three times during races, has experienced more significant losses since two of those incidents occurred while he was leading grand prix events, resulting in a 57-point deficit.

If those were added to their existing championship points, Martin would currently have 298 points compared to 272, increasing the gap between them from three points to 26.

This demonstrates the significant influence these accidents have had on the championship race. The widest margin between Martin and Bagnaia was 44 points following Bagnaia’s crash in the Barcelona sprint.

However, his streak of winning four Grand Prix races in a row, with two of those being sprint/GP doubles, along with Martin experiencing two crashes, transformed the standings. This change gave the reigning double world champion a 10-point lead as they headed into the summer break.

However, his crash during the Silverstone sprint and his slower speed relative to Martin in the grand prix essentially nullified all the effort he had put in.

Although the highly competitive nature of the top MotoGP riders is a significant factor, the new 2024 rear tyres from Michelin have also played a major role.

No one likes the thought that tires might determine who wins a championship.

The lead-up to last year's final was clouded by the significant risk that a tyre pressure penalty might prevent either Martin or Bagnaia from winning. Additionally, Martin's prospects were severely affected by an issue with his rear tyre during the Qatar Grand Prix.

This is the nature of a championship with only one tire supplier. It's important to note that the recent crashes affecting the title race are not due to Michelin's new, grippier rear tires being of poor quality. On the contrary, the frequent breaking of lap records at various tracks demonstrates their effectiveness.

Bagnaia mentioned at Silverstone that the enhanced rear tyre grip is putting more pressure on the front during braking, which consequently raises the likelihood of a crash.

"The new rear tires are excellent, but they are causing more accidents as they are putting more pressure on the front," stated Bagnaia.

"During today's sprint, the top three finishers crossed the line eight seconds ahead of the fourth-place racer, showcasing some remarkable speed from those competitors."

"I believe that we've never witnessed anything quite like this before, and it’s incredibly impressive. However, the possibility of an accident is always present."

He mentioned that theoretically, this should alter the riding strategy, but in the heat of a race with intense competition, "we always forget."

Judging by the events of the first half of the 2024 season, it seems improbable that the situation will alter, as every new round becomes increasingly crucial in determining the outcome of this year’s world championship.

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